Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[N5329K]

Electric cars still have a cooling system, but its simpler as it only has to cool an electric motor and a battery, not something that literally has explosions going on inside it.

Electric cars primarily use regenerative braking, and the friction brakes are there more for emergency braking than anything else. I drove my 2001 Honda Insight over 152,000km and not only didn't need to change the brake pads over the entire time I owned that car - I couldn't even detect any wear happening to them. I bought the car at 150,000km on the odometer. It had the same brakes on it when it was destroyed in a rollover collision ~152,000km later. I don't know for sure, but I suspect those pads were the original pads the car was delivered with. That was with a hybrid electric motor only good for about 10kW of regen, compared to the what, 100-200kW of regen that full BEVs are capable of? You will most likely need to change the brakes on a Tesla because the rotors are rusting away before you'd need to change them because of wear, and even that usually only happens to cars when they're not driven often enough.

There will of course still be wheel bearings and tires, and suspension components that need service, but the things that a BEV eliminates or significantly reduces from the maintenance equation are the high-frequency ones. The low-frequency service needs are pretty much unavoidable in a mechanical system.

You might want to take a brief tour of the Model S "Technical and Mechanical Issues" thread (the S is a "mature" design by Tesla reckoning), and then decide about the service requirements of (very complex) electric cars.
Robin
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[techmaven]

I'd like to point out a potential competitor to battery storage: flywheels

...

However, from a technological point of view I can imagine there would be less degradation in capacity over time on a vacuum sealed flywheel than on a Li-ion battery.

I really looked into both flywheel and compressed air storage, both of which seemed to be quite interesting at first. But the devil in the details.

For flywheel storage, note that most of the actual products provide massive amounts of power for between 5 seconds and 40 seconds. Seconds. Not minutes, or hours, but seconds.

One of the biggest use cases is to provide backup power in a split second at massive levels for the few seconds while the generators come up to speed. This replaces massive lead acid battery banks that sit around doing nothing but self discharging and wearing out anyways. In a massive battery bank scenario with PowerPacks in a data center, for example, it would likely still be advantageous to have a flywheel based backup power ability that steps in while the PowerPacks sync up. PowerWalls right now take about a second or a few to kick in, which means they are not capable of replacing UPSs.

Also, when flywheel storage goes wrong, things go very, very wrong. That much mass spinning at that much speed - if something goes wrong, you better hope that whatever container you've built to hold it manages to contain the mess.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm certainly not trying to be argumentative; I'll be happy if Tesla can continue to be a disruptive force. Personally I *really* dislike the American notion of a truck as a commuter vehicle.. and even how potentially cool the X is as a tech project, it is most assuredly not the type of vehicle I would ever buy. I do see the need to cater to your audience though.

In parts of the country a truck makes perfect sense. It doesn't for a city dweller in San Francisco, but try and be a farmer, a landscaper, a home renovator etc... without one. Or a hobbyist (skidoo, waterski, dirt biker, horse owner, weekend car racer etc...).

 

[kenliles]

Going out on a limb here; I'd imagine that even God is on Tesla's side at this point.

Clapton definitely a Tesla fan...
even Unplugged

 

[GoTslaGo]

Clapton definitely a Tesla fan...
even Unplugged

As is Morgan Freeman...

 

[Krugerrand]

As is Morgan Freeman...

Okay, now we need a 'doubly funny' option button.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Some significant challenges with flywheel energy storage:

- Efficiency. Batteries can have ~95% efficiency (DC-side storage), flywheels are more like ~85% efficiency.
- The self-discharge rate. It's something like 1% per hour for flywheels. So, if you store energy from midday to midnight, that's a 12% energy loss, on top of the round trip efficiency losses.
- Form factor. Flywheels are quite big, heavy and unwieldy. It's not something you stick in a rack in a substation or hang on the wall of your home.
- Destructive power. A flywheel can disintegrate due to the high forces involved, which is why they are often partially buried.
- Cost. Per kWh of storage, flywheels are several times more expensive. They might last longer, but not several times longer.

There's also the gyroscopic effect of flywheels. This effect can be nullified by using 2 opposing spin flywheels together, but reduces the storage capacity by a half. All in all, too much hassle to solve a minor longevity issue.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There's also the gyroscopic effect of flywheels. This effect can be nullified by using 2 opposing spin flywheels together, but reduces the storage capacity by a half. All in all, too much hassle to solve a minor longevity issue.

I hadn't thought about that. As long as the flywheel is stationary it shouldn't be an issue. But I guess the earth's rotation can't be disregarded.

Maybe you could design a flywheel where the mechanism can rotate freely according to the earth's rotation.

Edit: Actually, all you need to do is align the plane of the flywheel rotation with the plane of the earth's rotation. This will vary by latitude, but it shouldn't be impossible.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I hadn't thought about that. As long as the flywheel is stationary it shouldn't be an issue. But I guess the earth's rotation can't be disregarded.

Maybe you could design a flywheel where the mechanism can rotate freely according to the earth's rotation.

Edit: Actually, all you need to do is align the plane of the flywheel rotation with the plane of the earth's rotation. This will vary by latitude, but it shouldn't be impossible.

Sure, but that limits the flywheel (plus freely rotating container) to the shape of a sphere. Try fitting that under the seats!

 

[Intl Professor]

Going out on a limb here; I'd imagine that even God is on Tesla's side at this point.

Certainly God must also be acquainted with physics.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Sure, but that limits the flywheel (plus freely rotating container) to the shape of a sphere. Try fitting that under the seats!

Oh, you're talking about vehicles! I don't think anyone is considering flywheel energy storage for vehicles anymore. It's been tried and it sucked. And since then batteries have improved massively.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Oh, you're talking about vehicles! I don't think anyone is considering flywheel energy storage for vehicles anymore. It's been tried and it sucked. And since then batteries have improved massively.

I think you are correct, the original discussion was regarding flywheels vs. powerwalls/battery storage.

Although now that you guys mentioned it, if the flywheel has a gyroscopic effect couldn't that have an additional benefit of preventing the vehicle from flipping... (ok this comment was intended to be a little tongue in cheek...).

 

[JRP3]

 

[racer26]

You might want to take a brief tour of the Model S "Technical and Mechanical Issues" thread (the S is a "mature" design by Tesla reckoning), and then decide about the service requirements of (very complex) electric cars.
Robin
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I've seen it. Looks like there is a total of 2 pages of posts in the last two months, the majority of them about quirks in autopilot, with a couple of drive unit failures requiring service. I acknowledged the earlier teething issues. Most new car models have some teething issues.

I'm not suggesting that Tesla's or EVs in general are immune to needing service or having bum parts, merely that they need far less routine maintenance and have far fewer critical parts than their ICEV brethren, which is absolutely, undeniably true.

 

[Krugerrand]

Certainly God must also be acquainted with physics.

He is all-knowing.

 

[BriansTesla]

I've never really been a GM fan and I have to say the look of the Bolt is decidedly not for me but the various press outlets do seem to think the technology is solid. How do you factor in a GM dealer in every town where some folks with Tesla's have far fewer options?

I have a 3 on reserve but I admit to some trepidation about service; why did it take 2 days to code new keys for a roadster? The time to do the work certainly was not the reason, however tricky it might be (even a full hour doesn't explain the elapsed time). I more easily believe the service backlog at too few service facilities as root cause.

All that said, my emotional self does favor Tesla. I have a good friend who works there which sometimes provides little glimpses of reality. I just wondering if sleeping giants may actually get their acts together (which I believe is actually good for everyone) and how that will impact Tesla's lead and growth.

One of the big problems with the Bolt as I understand it is that even if it is a big success, they don't have the ability to build enough to make a real impact.

 

[JBRR]

Frank Thorp V on Twitter
"JUST IN: NEW ltr to Congress from FBI says "we have not changed our conclusion that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton":"

Should ease some of the market jitters tomorrow.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla has been building the gigafactory since 2012.

As unbelievable as it seems looking at the latest video, they only started in 2014! Tesla Gigafactory site spotted near Reno, Nevada?

 

[Papafox]

You might want to take a brief tour of the Model S "Technical and Mechanical Issues" thread (the S is a "mature" design by Tesla reckoning), and then decide about the service requirements of (very complex) electric cars.
Robin
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I base my views of the reliability of Model S upon the 65,000 miles I've driven in two of them and upon the experiences of my two dozen friends who own them. There's simply no comparison with ICE vehicles: Teslas are much lower maintenance. I look at my friends with their BMWs and Mercedes and I know how much they spend on maintenance. It's friggin' ridiculous.

 

[Krugerrand]

As unbelievable as it seems looking at the latest video, they only started in 2014! Tesla Gigafactory site spotted near Reno, Nevada?

Thank you for correcting that dating with evidence. Gigafactory building has been FAST. One of the factors to picking Nevada was that they'd promised to fastrack all the 'technicalities' allowing Tesla to get it up quick.