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Guys, if investors hate the merger so much that it's a deal breaker, they would have sold before the vote occurred. It's possible to be against the merger and remain long.
Think about it - the choices for someone against the merger are sell when it's announced, hope it gets killed and buy back in (rational, assuming you think the merger is value destructive), or hold, vote down and exit if you lose. In order for the second choice to be rational, you would have to think that the merger is likely to fail (why remain in if you hate the deal but think it will pass?) and that such failure would somehow cause the stock to pop.
I doubt many people believed both of those things to be true. All signs pointed to the merger passing, most notably repeated statements from Elon that support was strong. Second, I doubt many believed an against vote would cause a pop. In a stock like tesla the vision is everything. If investors nix the vision it's definitely going to cause a downturn, and I think most understand that.
From this small pool of people believing a fail was probable and would be positive, you'd expect them to have sold immediately upon the approval news since they think it's a terrible idea. If they haven't and are in wait and see mode, and they see the stock being stable post approval, why would they sell now?
I'll also point out that most votes like this tend to have millions of shares voted against. I don't have the stats, but I don't think it's an accepted fact that steep declines following a less than unanimous merger vote is the norm. Tesla's vote results were def not out of the ordinary.
Right. We saw this on here as well, there were a number of regular longs on here who were against the merger but still planned on holding their tesla stake long term.
Does the Q4'16 Tesla earnings report includ SolarCity numbers? If so what are the odds the combined report show GAAP/non-GAAP profitability?
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I totally agree if shareholders don't agree with the merger, best way is to just sell. I've said this a number of times before and still believe so. What I am thinking is, big holders won't just dump all their shares in a short period of time, that would be cause too much of a drop in share price and harmful to their interest. A possible scenario might be at the end of June when the merger was announced, there were 20-30 m shares (pure imagination, could be more could be less) determined against it. Some sold immediately, causing that 10%+ drop we saw. Some of these dumped shares got picked up by those who agreed with the merger, thus we saw a fast climb up to ~$230. Then those who are against continued to sell, pressuring the price down to $200 and 11 m of them left around that time. They are still not convinced by the merger but again they are just continuing slowly selling their shares to avoid selling at a much lower price if they were dumped in a short period of time. Maybe this process is already over, maybe not. I think it's still on going but could be close to an end with this year's end (took a quarter to sell 11 m, 12 m left two months ago).
Great video. Smashes all "staged" claims against the first one.
Not to do a hyperbole, but I'm seriously astonished. This is breathtaking. Far far advanced than mobileye's detection videos I have seen before.
Now I totally believe that full autonomous driving is only maybe an year away (excluding regulatory approvals)
OMG!!! The video is so good!!! Unbelievable!!!
Two recent comments from Elon are very intriguing to me. To the person who put 100% net worth into TSLA, Elon said "we will not let you down". To the shareholders he said "your faith will be rewarded". I think we will see great things in the next 12 months. The new sell-driving video is just the beginning.
When Uber or Volvo say they have autonomous driving, they are lying, they are probably still 10 years out. When Tesla say they got autonomous driving, they mean it. Fortunately, Wall Street can't tell the difference.
When Uber or Volvo say they have autonomous driving, they are lying, they are probably still 10 years out. When Tesla say they got autonomous driving, they mean it. Fortunately, Wall Street can't tell the difference.
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My favorite part is that this demonstration is using production car tech, equipment in tesla cars now. If tesla can release a driver assist system that blows people away in December, well that's a pretty big demand lever, not sure how that effects the SP short term, but can't hurt.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
The lack of even a few voiceover explanations or textual annotations here and there in the video is an interesting marketing communications strategy on Tesla's part. Or, it's not a strategy at all, it's just they put the video together as fast as possible and threw it out on the net as-is. I suspect the latter. One problem with the latter approach (that Tesla clearly does not worry about) is the potential market confusion between the fact that this is pure Autopilot 2.0, and not yet available on the market, and the AP 1.x that is on the market. Some owners (none at TMC, of course, all of whom are technically brilliant autodidacts) and some in the media may think that hands-free driving is now here.
As a reality check, I would look at the members of this forum who voted no for the merger. What percentage of them plan to sell this week or next? I think you'll find it to be a very small percentage. I do have a relative who owned TSLA shares on the record date and opposed the merger. He sold all his shares on the day Goldman put out their nasty note but was entitled to vote on the merger nonetheless. Why would someone who would sell Tesla if the merger went through wait until after the merger went through if they knew the merger was more than 90% likely and they feared the consequences of the merger? Why would they not sell earlier? From people I know who opposed the merger, I'd say you're looking at 1 or 2 million sellers max in the near term.
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The Q3 drop was not $35, but roughly one fifteenth of that - $2.11, as on 7/01 stock opened at $206.14 while on 9/30 it closed at $204.03
The net reduction in institutional SO was not 11M shares, but about 30% less - 8.75M shares. See snapshot of the NASDAQ summary below
The most likely sequence of events can be surmised by looking at the chart. Whatever positions institutional SO trimmed for whatever reason (whether unhappiness with SCTY acquisition, or in reaction to global concerns post Brexit) were most likely sold into the shares recall - it would be plain stupid for them not to do it, as they had first hand knowledge of the recall dynamics, and selling into the recall when stock was trading in $220-$230 range in spite of an assault of mostly fabricated "bad news" assured that they got top dollar for the stock. The slide down from this $220-$230 plateau was triggered when after period of no shares available for shorting there was over a sudden sizable dump of shares for shorting and sudden availability of them.
I think that before speculating one needs to take a look at the chart to see if speculation is consistent with it. Since this topic and narrative which I believe to be inaccurate keeps popping up, I am going to post annotated chart over the weekend which in my view shows that this narrative is questionable. What I see is that SP drop in Q3 (after the rise and trading in $220-$230 range associated with shares recall) was mostly defined by incessant negative propaganda coupled with the strategic shorting attacks.
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I'm not assuming there are still 10 m of shares want to sell as of now. I am thinking a sizable portion of the 12 m on record date were willing and were selling and this may not have ended. Pure speculation. Reason of not sell earlier is they would cause too much of a drop and that's against their own interest so they need to pace themselves.
I reread your post and corrected my comment but you responded before the change went in. I agree, you didn't say 10 million. Still, I think the number is smaller than you are suggesting.
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I am aware there were over 2 m of shares bought by SO. That could be the reason of the rise in early Q3. And then the selling began and stock price dropped $35. By just looking at the chart you can obviously tell most of the buying pressure was done in July and most of the selling pressure was done in August and September. This is consistent with your selling into recall laid here. But we don't know how many shares were actually recalled. So the amount of recall may not be enough for those who were opposed to the merger (or whatever reason) to sell, and they continued to sell, and the stock price went down.
mmd
Active Member
#1 Bolt is not based on Sonic. Chevrolet Bolt - Wikipedia
#2 Sonic does not cost $15k. It is listed at around $23k here in CA.
Cars.com
Even if it was from a $15k Sonic, GM would like to keep $20k profit instead of $10k profit per car, if they can sell all they can make. Isn't that just good business?
It took me only 5 minutes to fact check your statement. I used Wikipedia and the internet. It's a great new invention
Please donate some to Wikipedia before the year end and get the tax deduction. I do every year. Let there be light of knowledge everywhere!
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