Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

A Revolutionary Breakthrough in The Lithium Space

The largest potential market for Lithium, however, is grid storage-and this is a wildcard that is just getting started. To date, the U.S. Department of Energy has listed almost 750 grid-level storage projects coming in at around 2,400 tonnes of lithium carbonate. Until now, most electric storage favored pumped storage, with the pumped storage capacity coming in at 60 times the grid-level battery storage. However, the pump-turbine efficiency lowers potential output by around 70% of input, while batteries can operate closer to 98%. As the price of water goes up and fewer favorable geographies can be found, batteries will come into favor over pumped storage. This suggests a huge potential increase for grid storage batteries, without even considering the effects of increased wind and solar power.

 

[Turing]

Tesla Model S driver walks away from crash with a truck at ‘tremendous speed’
Earlier this week, the fact that the Tesla Model S broke the machine used to test the roof structure of cars during a round of tests by US regulators came up again on social media despite having happened over 3 years ago. Coincidentally, a Model S owner put the roof to the test today in an unfortunate real world scenario when he crashed into a truck on the Autobahn in Germany.

The Model S lodged itself under the truck and despite the severity of the impact, the driver reportedly was able to get himself out of the car and walk to safety – though his injuries were described as “serious,” but not critical.

 

[phigment]

A Revolutionary Breakthrough in The Lithium Space

Think there is any chance Tesla buys out Pure Energy after their PEA is complete?

 

[Krugerrand]

It's been under construction for over 6 months. My visit was in April.

I was talking about installing it and getting it up and running, not including the prep work.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So?

10,000 shares sold by a long by definition has more impact than a share sold by short.

Is that an example of Value of comparing apples and oranges?

 

[dc_h]

You are correct, Tesla does in fact advertise, their advertising budget is not zero.

However, the point is that Tesla spends nothing relative to the other auto manufacturers. Tesla spent $9million on advertising in the same year that General Motors spent $1.6billion, for example. Nine million bucks gets to pay for the mobile sales stores, and other low-cost things here and there. No magazines or TV, and no promotional review cars - review sites acquire cars for review without Tesla's help.

Is that the exit ramp for the Grand Avenue sales and service center?

 

[Curt Renz]

Is that the exit ramp for the Grand Avenue sales and service center?

Yes. See my post #47437.

 

[Roger t]

There was never supposed to be a charging network advantage for Tesla. It is the recalcitrance, anti-competitive behavior and myopia of the major automakers gifted this temporary advantage to Tesla.

For Tesla owners, any new major charging network is potentially additive to the Tesla charging experience. In addition, there will be significant costs to use the new networks, otherwise those stations would have a hard time staying online with a steward that is constantly losing money. As it stands, a consumer choosing BEVs in 2018 or 2019 will look at the landscape and see vehicles that have access to a nascent CCS network, a falling apart and slow CHAdeMO network, or a Tesla Supercharger network + CHAdeMO + likely CCS.

Not to mention that the battery pack is the likely limiting factor as we get above a certain threshold. We will see how these NMC battery packs hold up with high speed charging. The data I'm seeing with the Kia Soul EV that has a SKI NMC pack is really not encouraging. The first year degradation is severe. Not sure it is just the infant degradation effect that levels out... I suspect that is most of the case. But adding in 1.5 to 3C charging won't help things. I suspect a Porsche buyer isn't phased by expensive pack replacements, but most everyone else would be.

Charging network barrier of entry is low when they just need to put up 400 stations for tens of thousands of vehicles per year for each of the companies. It will be harder to expand the network to support million vehicles per year as Tesla would in a couple of years. I am impressed that they are going to deploy 350kw charging stations. This validates Tesla's statement that charging can be reduced to under 10min. If so, it takes away the most important obstacle for EV to replace ICE.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Any analyst or fund manager who cites Spiegel as a reason to make any financial decisions should be blacklisted and or lose their license. This is the definition of fraud. Unless someone can provide me with credible evidence, I stand by my comment that Stanphyl is a fake Hedge Fund, consisting of one (possibly two) people.

Also, Mark Spiegel might be committing a crime by implying he has any financial certifications.

Very tempted to contact a lawyer about filing a lawsuit against Stanphyl. Anyone want in?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Do some of you seriously think that Spiegel is influential on the shareprice ?
Any psych who would even just look at his tweets knows that guy has serious issues that can not be fixed.

I guess maybe the FUD around a SEC investigation did some harm, which the shorts took advantage of the best they could. But that is what it is, FUD spread by stakeholders spreading misinformation and strategic short selling.

I have a hard time to believe Spiegel plays a measurable role.

Every negative trader on Twitter including Doug Kass was quoting this idiot.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Q4 is now sold out. Estimated delivery time for Model S (US) moved out from end of December to February, Model X - from end of December to January.

 

[madodel]

The letter of this "non partisan" organisation let suppose that most of Tesla actual or potential clients doesn't know the limitation of the auto pilot system. Maybe, it was true before the fatal accident of May, but after that, with all the bashing against autopilot (inclusive by this "non partisan" organisation), and after that, the headlines about every Tesla car which were implicated in some accident, sure most of Tesla owners or potential clients are aware of the limitations, or, at least, they will pay more attention to the manual and all the advices Tesla put in the car dash board when somebody enable the autopilot.
As the last independent survey showed that 98% of Germans Tesla owners are very well aware of autopilot limitations, so is this Consumer Watch organisation saying that American owners are more stupid than Germans ones?

I guess we will see in the next German election. ;-)

This is all just a means to delegitimize and attack Tesla. When you can't build a better widget, attack the company that can.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Any analyst or fund manager who cites Spiegel as a reason to make any financial decisions should be blacklisted and or lose their license. This is the definition of fraud. Unless someone can provide me with credible evidence, I stand by my comment that Stanphyl is a fake Hedge Fund, consisting of one (possibly two) people.

Also, Mark Spiegel might be committing a crime by implying he has any financial certifications.

Very tempted to contact a lawyer about filing a lawsuit against Stanphyl. Anyone want in?

Start by supplying any info on Twitter to @Guruleaks1. I may have peaked their interest today in Stanphyl Capital. Not saying he is a fraud, but he should be looked into. Everybody with info on Spiegel that is of interest should provide same. Please check out this Twitter seeker of the truth.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Every negative trader on Twitter including Doug Kass was quoting this idiot.

‪Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla via @technology‬

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This sounds identical to the type of schenanigans Mark B. Spiegel is pushing. SEC records that wreak of fraud, lying about the legitimacy of his hedge fund, and possibly swindling a few credible people and news sources into believing he is legit, when in reality he is full of ****.

Fake Hedge-Fund Manager Convicted of Securities Fraud

By


Daniel Huang

Updated Dec. 4, 2015 6:18 p.m. ET
A Manhattan man was convicted of securities fraud for operating a brazen financial scam that duped investors out of more than $800,000.

Mark Malik, 33 years old, claimed to operate a hedge fund with eye-popping returns when in fact he was a former waiter who spent his investors’ money on steak dinners, jewelry and airline tickets, according to prosecutors.

Mr. Malik faces up to 20 years in prison, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said Friday.

From 2011 to 2015, Mr. Malik claimed to be the founder and chief executive officer of a series of hedge funds, including Seven Sages Capital LP and Wolf Hedge LLC. Mr. Malik reported managing assets of $5 billion and generating returns of more than 200%. In reality, his brokerage accounts never held more than $90,000, prosecutors said.

In addition to deceiving investors out of more than $800,000, Mr. Malik’s claims also fooled a number of financial websites, including Bloomberg LP and BarclayHedge Ltd., a financial-research firm for big institutional investors. In 2011, Bloomberg called Mr. Malik a “rising fund manager,” based on false information he provided, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. In 2012, BarclayHedge ranked American Bridge Investments LP, another of Mr. Malik’s purported hedge funds, as one of its top-performing hedge funds based on false documents, said Mr. Schneiderman’s office.

Mr. Malik plans to appeal after his sentencing, his lawyer said.

Instead of investing his funds’ assets, prosecutors said Mr. Malik diverted his clients’ money for his own personal use. While his websites claimed “over a decade of experience on Wall Street in brokerage and in Management,” Mr. Malik’s only experience in financial services was as a trainee in the New Jersey office of a small brokerage firm.

Following a two-week trial in New York State Supreme Court, jurors found Mr. Malik guilty of all charges in the 28-count indictment, including grand larceny and securities fraud. His sentencing is scheduled for Dec. 18. Mr. Malik plans to appeal after the sentencing, his lawyer said.

“The verdict was hardly a surprise,” said Richard Verchick, Mr. Malik’s attorney. He added that his client’s crimes were perpetuated by a lack of oversight in financial services, particularly in the hedge-fund industry where managers often submit their own performance metrics.

Many financial reporting services “have all these algorithms but all the information is according to fund managers,” said Mr. Verchick. “The self-reporting and self-regulation is all hype and bogus.”

Mr. Malik was a trainee in the small brokerage firm from 2007-09. Prior to that, he worked as a traffic officer and a waiter at Max Brenner’s chocolate-based restaurant where among his customers was a stockbroker who inspired Mr. Malik to enter finance with his regular $50 to $100 tips, according to Mr. Malik’s testimony.

In May 2010, Mr. Malik launched his first hedge fund, Wall Street Creative Partners LP, out of his Queens, N.Y., apartment. By making false representations about his firm and experience, including fabricating accounting statements that touted nonexistent profits, he convinced at least 17 investors to entrust him with over $800,000, according to Mr. Schneiderman’s office.

Instead of investing the assets, prosecutors said Mr. Malik diverted his clients’ money for his own personal use, taking out $215,000 in cash withdrawals and spending $210,000 for hotel, flights, electronics and karaoke.

On the day he testified, a somber Mr. Malik—dressed in a gray button-down, gray tie and gray V-neck sweater—repeatedly asserted that he didn’t steal from his clients. “Fund management is […] like a coffee shop, like any other business. You need money to cover expenses, that’s how we operated,” he said.

“In his mind and in his heart, he was earnestly trying to get his business together and did not think he was guilty,” said Mr. Verchick, the defense lawyer.

Mr. Malik blamed the tensions with investors on his drinking. In one instance, after drinking “liquor and beer,” he sent an email intended for one investor to all of his clients, prompting a flood of redemption requests.

Investors who asked for their money back from Mr. Malik were rebuffed with email replies that ranged from affectionate (“you know that I love you”), to indignant (“stop your nonsense”) and bizarre (“I am going Deer hunting”), according to court filings.

As more concerned investors began contacting him, Mr. Malik said, “I figured that something was wrong with myself—not that I was a liar or a cheater or […] my character, but my drinking.” He was arrested in February at an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting.

Mark B. Spiegel went from being the Managing Partner and owner of 'News Joke' , a fake news website with the motto, "The News is a Joke", to covering companies no-one has ever heard of that look like shell companies to yapping non stop about Elon, Tesla, and SolarCity.

NEWSJOKE INC. | FLUSHING, NY

As best as I can tell he has no financial qualifications. Also, his "hedge fund" consists of him and possibly one other person.

 

[Curt Renz]

Every negative trader on Twitter including Doug Kass was quoting this idiot.

Later Robin Hood conference participant Whitney Tilson said he was impressed by Spiegel's short Tesla argument and was tempted to join him in shorting Tesla. Possibly he assumed Spiegel's argument should be accepted due to Spiegel's hedge fund credential. More likely it was simply "wanting" to believe. But Tilson also said shorting Tesla a few years ago virtually destroyed him. After reading the Vance book about Musk, Tilson indicated he won't again bet against Elon no matter what the standard valuation metrics say.

Tilson was followed by Ron Baron whose Baron Funds are heavily invested in Tesla. His funds control thousands of times the assets of Spiegel's. I would expect Bloomberg TV to play the recording of Baron at some point during the next 24 hours.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This sounds identical to the type of schenanigans Mark B. Spiegel is pushing. SEC records that wreak of fraud, lying about the legitimacy of his hedge fund, and possibly swindling a few credible people and news sources that he is legit, when in reality he is full of ****.

Fake Hedge-Fund Manager Convicted of Securities Fraud

Elon needs to go jihadi.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I am not calling Spiegel a fraud. It is, however, a shame how he continues to throw dung at Tesla every day and nobody has taken him to task. He needs to be taught a lesson. A costly one at that.

 

[Value Ev]

Your post was trying to suggest that FB DOES NOT REPORT non-GAAP earning. but they do report pro-forma earnings. s.

The person asked which high tech/high growth companies reported on GAAP.
I replied correctly.

Thank you kindly.

 

[AudubonB]

Here is the relevant snippet from the biography of Mark Spiegel showing on the Robin Hood conference:

From late 2003 through early 2009 he was an investment banker (most recently as a principal with Piper Jaffray & Co.) financing public companies. Prior to becoming an investment banker, Mark spent a year working for a microcap Nasdaq tech company, and he began his career with 17 years in the commercial real estate industry

And that is a mighty thin bio. "...principal with Piper Jaffray" is someone a level below VP, and way below Managing Director. Regardless, I'd not seen mention of that before in the one or two times I'd looked into Stanaphyl. The Piper Jaffray line does, however, give another something to go on if someone wanted to look more into his credentials.

On edit: the only other potentially relevant datum is that his CV has quite a lacuna between his departure from PiperJ (early '09) and the first mention of Stanaphyl (mid-'11).