Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CALGARYARSENAL]

What you are worried about? The institutions that have been holding Tesla aren't going to be swayed because of a short presentation from a unknown like spiegel. The short position is pretty crowded already and short thesis is well known, so doubt the 'legends' heard anything new here.

I respectfully disagree. If we are going to see that dip to 120.00 that all the bears fantasize about, it will come in the next week or so - if the legends believed his presentation. If they think he is a goof, like us, expect a slow steady slog upward. And by the way.....Mark isn't an unknown any more. Not after today. He is a force to be reconed with. Good luck.

Edit: the best thing we could have at this moment is a production cut from Opec. It could save the day.

 

[AlMc]

Tilson on Tesla: Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla

 

[ggr]

TAN? "Tesla Apple Nvidia"? The Apple doesn't make sense; Google comes up with a Solar hedge fund. Is that it?

No. TAN is the ticker symbol for the Guggenheim Solar Exchange Traded Fund. It's a basket of solar stocks. Solar City used to be in it, but they decided that TSLA is not a solar stock, so they sold it down. It was their biggest single holding, about 7% of the fund, a few days ago.

 

[mmd]

Judging by the comments here today, it seems Mark B Spiegel tanked the stock when he spoke in the Robinhood conference. But Ron Baron, who also spoke near the closing, didn't help much and the stock tanked further into the close. Is there anything we can read from this? Are their presentations available?

Whitney Tilson says, Spiegel gave an "outstanding presentation"
Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla

Edit: Now, I don't know if Ron Baron said anything on Tesla at all. His fund has many other investments. Speigel, OTOH, likely talked mainly about Tesla. The time each of them spent talking about Tesla may be very different.

 

[Value Ev]

I am not calling Spiegel a fraud. It is, however, a shame how he continues to throw dung at Tesla every day and nobody has taken him to task. He needs to be taught a lesson. A costly one at that.

What are you taking about?
He is short TSLA and discusses his viewpoint.
If he is wrong, the market will take him to task by destroying his portfolio. That would be the appropriate "lesson"
Plenty of people disagree with him and argue.

What more do you want in terms of him being punished for having an alternative view?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

What are you taking about?
He is short TSLA and discusses his viewpoint.
If he is wrong, the market will take him to task by destroying his portfolio. That would be the appropriate "lesson"
Plenty of people disagree with him and argue.

What more do you want in terms of him being punished for having an alternative view?

Exactly what I meant. I don't think he is a fraud but I would like to know about his returns and more about him in general. You need to calm down before I block you like everybody else has.

 

[Value Ev]

Exactly what I meant. I don't think he is a fraud but I would like to know about his returns and more about him in general.

The returns (as of end of year 2015 I believe)
"Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up approximately 73.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 67.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 42.8%. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the Stanphyl Capital fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two."

Here is more info about him and his viewpoints 20 Questions With Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital Management - GuruFocus.com

From that is more info about performance:
"As you ask about "10 years," from 2005 through first quarter 2011 I was able to compound my personal account at 26.7% a year gross (there were no hedge fund fees in my PA), including being up 10% in the crash year of 2008 because I had a huge leveraged short position on the S&P 500. (My only down year in that era was -7% in 2007 because I got short too early, but then I'm usually too early; in fact, my all-time favorite investing quote is from Bernard Baruch who supposedly said-- and I'm paraphrasing here-- "I made all my money by selling too early.") I then opened the fund in June 2011 and since inception it's up around 106% net versus 81% for the S&P 500 total return index and 59% for the Russell 2000 total return index. Keep in mind though that I've managed to do this despite having a LOT of short positions-- in fact, the fund has been heavily net short all this year! (Despite that, we're still +19% year-to-date through September, as some of our microcap longs have done really well.)"

Knowing more about him and his performance is a bit different from taking him to task for his viewpoints. The market does that if he is wrong.

 

[Value Ev]

Judging by the comments here today, it seems Mark B Spiegel tanked the stock when he spoke in the Robinhood conference. But Ron Baron, who also spoke near the closing, didn't help much and the stock tanked further into the close. Is there anything we can read from this? Are their presentations available?

Whitney Tilson says, Spiegel gave an "outstanding presentation"
Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla

.

That was a good video that highlights some of the widely differing views in the market.

Analytic: "Every analytical part of me says it is a great short".

Less Analytic: Got burned before with a short and he says Elon is the "real-deal" and he doesn't want to bet against him.

 

[SBenson]

The returns (as of end of year 2015 I believe)
"Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up approximately 73.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 67.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 42.8%. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the Stanphyl Capital fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two."

Here is more info about him and his viewpoints 20 Questions With Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital Management - GuruFocus.com

From that is more info about performance:
"As you ask about "10 years," from 2005 through first quarter 2011 I was able to compound my personal account at 26.7% a year gross (there were no hedge fund fees in my PA), including being up 10% in the crash year of 2008 because I had a huge leveraged short position on the S&P 500. (My only down year in that era was -7% in 2007 because I got short too early, but then I'm usually too early; in fact, my all-time favorite investing quote is from Bernard Baruch who supposedly said-- and I'm paraphrasing here-- "I made all my money by selling too early.") I then opened the fund in June 2011 and since inception it's up around 106% net versus 81% for the S&P 500 total return index and 59% for the Russell 2000 total return index. Keep in mind though that I've managed to do this despite having a LOT of short positions-- in fact, the fund has been heavily net short all this year! (Despite that, we're still +19% year-to-date through September, as some of our microcap longs have done really well.)"

Knowing more about him and his performance is a bit different from taking him to task for his viewpoints. The market does that if he is wrong.

How come he rarely ever talks about anything other than Tesla? Is he making all those returns in TSLA, presumably trading in and out, or is this all one big scam? You know Bernie Madoff too apparently posted very solid results.

 

[sundaymorning]

I once read that up to 80% of the ocean's species rely on coral reefs to survive. If this isn't alarming environmentalists, I don't know what will:

Scientists record biggest ever coral die-off on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Hopefully the Australians implement laws favoring EVs after this.

"Australians are one of the biggest carbon emitters per capita due to its reliance on coal powered plants to produce electricity."

"Climate change is killing the Great Barrier Reef" says the director of an anti fuel movement..

 

[myusername]

That was a good video that highlights some of the widely differing views in the market.

Analytic: "Every analytical part of me says it is a great short".

Less Analytic: Got burned before with a short and he says Elon is the "real-deal" and he doesn't want to bet against him.

whatever Spiegel said seems to have been heard... if it doesn't affect short term SP... then it could affect potential buyers... and whatever Elon says... they will need capital... lots of it... look at what Mercedes just announced... $11b usd... that's more than all of Tesla's company history of revenues prior to this year!... that's the kind of money that the global auto industry is working with... but they just don't get it man... this is a revolution!

 

[Papafox]

Tilson on Tesla: Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla

Listen to his arguments and you realize why he lost his ass last time he shorted Tesla:

"There's a tidal wave of competition coming" What he doesn't say is that much of the competition is coming in 2025 and that until battery production is geared up substantially by competitors (which will take years), Tesla has little volume competition and will be able to sell every Model 3 and Model Y they can produce for years and years to come. Moreover, nobody in the auto business can innovate at a pace that can keep up with Tesla, not even close.

"They're hemorrhaging money" How many hundreds of millions of dollars of cash did Tesla's automotive operations create in Q3? There's a difference between burning cash and investing in long-term projects such as the gigafactory and Model 3. When those two investments are running at volume, the cash they create will be spectacular.

"SolarCity will only increase their losses" Let's see, Elon says SCTY will be cashflow neutral in Q4 and 2017 and generate $500,000,000 of cash for TSLA during the next three years. There's a huge difference in opinion between Elon Musk and Mark Spiegel. Who ya gonna believe? Moreover, what will be the effect upon Telsa's profits when the Buffalo plant (with Panasonic taking responsibilities for it) starts turning out those gorgeous electric roof tiles that nobody at this point can compete with?

 

[luca]

whatever Spiegel said seems to have been heard... if it doesn't affect short term SP... then it could affect potential buyers... and whatever Elon says... they will need capital... lots of it... look at what Mercedes just announced... $11b usd... that's more than all of Tesla's company history of revenues prior to this year!... that's the kind of money that the global auto industry is working with... but they just don't get it man... this is a revolution!

11B for TEN CARS DURING NINE YEARS!!!

Tesla will spend 3B (R&D+CAPEX) THIS YEAR for just ONE CAR

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Listen to his arguments and you realize why he lost his ass last time he shorted Tesla:

"There's a tidal wave of competition coming" What he doesn't say is that much of the competition is coming in 2025 and that until battery production is geared up substantially by competitors (which will take years), Tesla has little volume competition and will be able to sell every Model 3 and Model Y they can produce for years and years to come. Moreover, nobody in the auto business can innovate at a pace that can keep up with Tesla, not even close.

"They're hemorrhaging money" How many hundreds of millions of dollars of cash did Tesla's automotive operations create in Q3? There's a difference between burning cash and investing in long-term projects such as the gigafactory and Model 3. When those two investments are running at volume, the cash they create will be spectacular.

"SolarCity will only increase their losses" Let's see, Elon says SCTY will be cashflow neutral in Q4 and 2017 and generate $500,000 of cash for TSLA during the next three years. There's a huge difference in opinion between Elon Musk and Mark Spiegel. Who ya gonna believe? Moreover, what will be the effect upon Telsa's profits when the Buffalo plant (with Panasonic taking responsibilities for it) starts turning out those gorgeous electric roof tiles that nobody at this point can compete with?

I needed to hear this.

 

[luca]

Listen to his arguments and you realize why he lost his ass last time he shorted Tesla:

"There's a tidal wave of competition coming" What he doesn't say is that much of the competition is coming in 2025 and that until battery production is geared up substantially by competitors (which will take years), Tesla has little volume competition and will be able to sell every Model 3 and Model Y they can produce for years and years to come. Moreover, nobody in the auto business can innovate at a pace that can keep up with Tesla, not even close.

"They're hemorrhaging money" How many hundreds of millions of dollars of cash did Tesla's automotive operations create in Q3? There's a difference between burning cash and investing in long-term projects such as the gigafactory and Model 3. When those two investments are running at volume, the cash they create will be spectacular.

"SolarCity will only increase their losses" Let's see, Elon says SCTY will be cashflow neutral in Q4 and 2017 and generate $500,000 of cash for TSLA during the next three years. There's a huge difference in opinion between Elon Musk and Mark Spiegel. Who ya gonna believe? Moreover, what will be the effect upon Telsa's profits when the Buffalo plant (with Panasonic taking responsibilities for it) starts turning out those gorgeous electric roof tiles that nobody at this point can compete with?

his performance
Whitney Tilson - Wikipedia

last five years 3% vs sp500 97%

lol

 

[racer26]

No. TAN is the ticker symbol for the Guggenheim Solar Exchange Traded Fund. It's a basket of solar stocks. Solar City used to be in it, but they decided that TSLA is not a solar stock, so they sold it down. It was their biggest single holding, about 7% of the fund, a few days ago.

Anybody have a current holdings report for TAN?

I find it really difficult to believe that they would be so myopic as to think that the largest solar installer in America, Tesla Motors Inc (via its subsidiary SolarCity), is not a solar stock. Just because it was acquired by another company didn't change that it operates the largest solar business in America.


EDIT: Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) Top Portfolio Holdings

Found one. Wow. That's just completely insane to me.

 

[Alketi]

‪Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla via @technology‬

Wow, that was a great interview. This guy has some common sense. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Value Ev]

his performance
Whitney Tilson - Wikipedia

last five years 3% vs sp500 97%

lol

LOL is right.
He is the one betting on Tesla.

 

[myusername]

11B for TEN CARS DURING NINE YEARS!!!

Tesla spend 3B (R&D+CAPEX) for just ONE CAR THIS YEAR

q1-3 capex+r&d is $1.8b... i don't expect to see $1b in capex for Q4... and btw... where's that money come from again?... massive dilution and/or debt... where do you think Mercedes will get that money?... maybe from the dribble of the 100s of billions of dollars in revenue that flows into it's parent company... Daimler posted $1.8B R&D for 2Q16... one quarter.

 

[aznt1217]

How many people are required to start a Hedge Fund?
Why can't that be done with 1 or 2 people?



Where did he imply that he has financial certifications? Are you making that up or do you have a specific citation?



You should. Then after you get laughed out of several offices both for lack of standing and lack of evidence of any legal wrong doing, you can come back here and try to post something real instead of this.

It would also be good to know lawyers just in case Stanphyl comes after you for your claims that he is running a fake Hedge Fund and him committing crimes based on his implying he has financial certifications - check out deflamation laws. He probably has a lot more money than you have to pursue that and you will need a lawyer who is willing to take you on as a charity case.

For your sake, I hope he doesn't see your posts.

I had a friend who runs a private equity firm. It's just him and he lives with his mom using a PO BOX on wall Street for mail. Oh and hes also broke. He used to be a stockbroker.

Spiegel is not currently licensed. He isn't legally allowed to advise anyone. He can present his short thesis and case but cannot make a recommendation. It is the public's choice whether or not to see that it has weight. His AUM is basically his account or family/friends- quite literally it's <2M. This guy is a joke by any Wall Street standard -- I don't care who or where you are from back to front office, small to bulge bracket bank, he's a joke. If you have a short thesis, it has to make sense. I don't condone cheerleading both ways, let's just base it on the facts. Right now, the way I see it, the DCF inputs have always been off. The technicals are broken and the macro environment has an unreal amount of uncertainty. I'm going back to the principles I used in 07-09 and that is to pick a solidly operated company that makes a product that matters. Short term trade the fluxes based on news but invest in something tangible because when the fog of war clears that's the only thing that stands.