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What will be the demand trigger after Q1'17? New AR spaceship like interior? It just coincides with the M3 reveal part 2.
HUD for both would help.Possibly. Also when are we expecting 21-70 cells in S/X? And S/X 100D (non P).
beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been soldAs far as future mega-catalysts to buy S or X, consider what will happens after Tesla has sold 200,000 units in the U.S. and the federal tax credit is about to start its phase-out. Buyers on the fence will see a $7500 after-tax penalty (if they have suitable income) if they wait until after the phase-out to buy their S or X. Here's the wording from the IRS site:
Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.
That final quarter for full the full tax credit given to S, X and M3 buyers may likely turn into a quarter when ALL Teslas are delivered to U.S. customers. With deliveries all in the U.S., you would expect a nice jump up in volume of deliveries that quarter. I would not be surprised if Tesla tweaks the deliveries so that the 200,000th U.S. vehicle is delivered in the first week of a quarter, thus allowing the remainder of that quarter plus the next quarter to be at the full credit value for U.S. customers.
Note: reading the IRS language, it looks like if the 200,000th U.S. Tesla delivery took place in the 3rd Q of 2017, Q3 and Q4 of 2017 would be at 100% fed credit and then 50% credit begins in Q1 of 2018. Please speak up if you interpret differently.
beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold
SO if 200,000 reported 7/1/2017 (3rd qtr), you get 2 qtrs more BEFORE the phaseout year starts (i think i think), because of word "After" (my head hurts every time i read this tho)
Yes, agree with others: if 200,000th car is delivered Oct 1 2017, then full credit continues though Q4, Q1, and Q2, with rebate falling to 50% on July 1 2018.... over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 ...
Yes. Highly unlikely to happen. But the market is probably pricing it in.Overall, wouldnt surprise me if they miss heavy this quarter because of reports above. Market already pricing this in... Am I off base?
I don't believe that a HUD introduction will have a substantial impact on the SPMitchJi,
If HUD was not done, but everything else you said was, would you be satisfied?
(For the record, I'd love HUD, but that's not why I asked.)
AFAIK Tesla shtdown in Oct to change over to AP2 HW. As indicated, Tesla produces for overseas early in the quarter so they can be delivered within that quarter. I have seen no reports of delays over parts sourcing. They would seem to be on track to a good quarter.
AFAIK Tesla shutdown in Oct to change over to AP2 HW. As indicated, Tesla produces for overseas early in the quarter so they can be delivered within that quarter. I have seen no reports of delays over parts sourcing. They would seem to be on track to a good quarter.
HUD for both would help.
Pretty sure that 2170,cells, bigger cheaper packs won't arrive until after the M3.
AP software feature rollout.
I'm confident that about the same time as the final M3 reveal that there will be some substantial price drops on the MS-MX.
They don't need to constantly improve the MS-MX, if they increase their footprint, they haven't saturated the market.
Q4 the market completely missed the significance. Almost everything that,allowed the positive financial results are either permanent or they will increase.
MX finally turned the corner on MX production and the associated service costs. Tesla will continue to improve and increase production.
Reduced costs due to more leverage with suppliers and increased volume. This will continue to improve, particularly with items that are common to the M3 and MS-MX, e.g. AP hardware and software.
Increased profit margins are going to improve due to 100 packs and AP charges. New financial catalysts.
Focus on capital efficiency.
They won't always be able to save up zev credits but I don't think that they are going away either.
Anyone who thinks that they are jeopardizing the M3 ramp to improve the short term SP doesn't know Elon and either hasn't been paying attention or thinks that he and Jason are lying.
Really soon TE will start to kick in, by the Q2 ER-CC at the latest, probably by Q1, and maybe by Q4.
beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold
SO if 200,000 reported 7/1/2017 (3rd qtr), you get 2 qtrs more BEFORE the phaseout year starts (i think i think), because of word "After" (my head hurts every time i read this tho)
{and now i'm not sure again}
I'll talk about some of your choices for rolling them to J19's.
If you roll them before they are green, obviously you are going to lose something. Lesson is when buying call options buying when the SP is low is critical.
If you roll them while they are OTM for the same strike price the delta will be higher in the J19's. A losing proposition because the further the price increases the less corresponding J19's you will be able to buy. Once they are ITM as the price increases you will start to be able to J19's the more the price of the J18's increases. I'd be inclined to wait at least until January numbers and the GF event, hopefully producing cells and some positive news on TE. February ER-CC should be good as well, but I'm leery of the trump effect.
I think that Q1-Q2 should also be excellent, if there are no real or preceived hiccups in the M3 ramp.
If you decide to roll them before they turn green you might could consider getting a higher strike price. That's normally considered riskier strategy, but you might believe that the risk for something like J19 $240-250's is less than for your J18 $200's. That could potentially undo some or all of the loss eventually.
Another choice that I tried myself, that currently looks like a big mistake, very risky, would be to roll them to something with a shorter expiration, probably with a lower strike price, June17's for example. I rolled my J18 $280's to March 2017 230's I ended up with about ten percent more options and a bigger delta. I did that just before the Q3 numbers because I was confident that the numbers and the ER-CC would be excellent. That was correct but the SP didn't move as I expected. Still if the SP gets to about $230 I'm green on the entire purchase, but I'd need about $250-260 for the J18's to be green.
HUD is a simple well proven technology. First came to market in the 1980's and people liked it. The differences now are that the cost is much less and the quality iand reliability are much better.I hope they hold off on HUD. There are already so many things that can malfunction, why make it even more complex? It just adds execution risk and risk of repair costs down the road.
Just get good cars out in the road for a good price at a good margin. Elon, although brilliant, should follow the KISS (keep it simple stupid) principle.
HUD is a simple well proven technology. First came to market in the 1980's and people liked it. The differences now are that the cost is much less and the quality iand reliability are much better.
It will probably be in the MS-MX before it's in the M3.You may be correct. I don't know as much about it. But why not put it in the second iteration of model 3? There must be a reason other car companies have held back. Avoid the model X error of packing too much in at once. Minimize the effect on service centers should something go wrong.
Tesla is SO FAR AHEAD.
Just need make layups and they win the series. Everything doesn't need to be an in your face dunk.