Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[TMSE]

You may be correct. I don't know as much about it. But why not put it in the second iteration of model 3? There must be a reason other car companies have held back. Avoid the model X error of packing too much in at once. Minimize the effect on service centers should something go wrong.

Tesla is SO FAR AHEAD.

Just need make layups and they win the series. Everything doesn't need to be an in your face dunk.

HUD actually simplifies the instrument panel further. It is likely just one giant curved glass panel with display embedded or projected on it, with possible touch interface.

HUD hardware transition is likely much simpler and faster than AP2 transition.

 

[Green Pete]

HUD actually simplifies the instrument panel further. It is likely just one giant curved glass panel with display embedded or projected on it, with possible touch interface.

HUD hardware transition is likely much simpler and faster than AP2 transition.

I still don't really get what the enthusism for a HUD is. Seems like wasted R + D on the cusp of autonomy.

 

[sdtslafan]

I still don't really get what the enthusism for a HUD is. Seems like wasted R + D on the cusp of autonomy.

Based on TMSE and MitchJi's responses above, maybe this could ultimately save costs by getting rid of the other instrument panels and dashboard complexities. Now they just need one computer screen and the windshield. Could this be key in reaching the 35k price point?

 

[3Victoria]

Based on TMSE and MitchJi's responses above, maybe this could ultimately save costs by getting rid of the other instrument panels and dashboard complexities. Now they just need one computer screen and the windshield. Could this be key in reaching the 35k price point?

Before full autonomy, while drivers still exist, a HUD with augmented reality is likely the best way to convey tot eh driver what the car is seeing and its actions. It can indicate the cars, people, bicycles, etc., and also show direction arrows, etc. directly.
Also, it can be changed and enhanced with OTA updates. And its cheaper than the alternatives.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Pretty sure that 2170,cells, bigger cheaper packs won't arrive until after the M3.

Possibly, though that would mean new technology arriving in Model 3 before S/X. I thought I remembered something said about new tech being in S/X first. Either way, I'm eager to see how the 21-70's perform in the vehicles.

 

[3Victoria]

Possibly, though that would mean new technology arriving in Model 3 before S/X. I thought I remembered something said about new tech being in S/X first. Either way, I'm eager to see how the 21-70's perform in the vehicles.

I think it is pretty clear that the 2170 cells are the basis of Model 3 battery packs. Using them for S/X will likely come later. I suspect we will see a refresh of S/X HW concurrent with the next Model 3 reveal, expected in the Spring (March 31st?).

 

[Green Pete]

Before full autonomy, while drivers still exist, a HUD with augmented reality is likely the best way to convey tot eh driver what the car is seeing and its actions. It can indicate the cars, people, bicycles, etc., and also show direction arrows, etc. directly.
Also, it can be changed and enhanced with OTA updates. And its cheaper than the alternatives.

Really the only information one needs on a dash while driving is current speed. Without full autonomy a Tesla seems already fully capable of limiting speed so that it won't exceed the speed limit. So potentially even a speedometer is antiquated.

 

[Navin]

The trolling of Elon Musk: how US conservatives are attacking green tech

 

[3Victoria]

Really the only information one needs on a dash while driving is current speed. Without full autonomy a Tesla seems already fully capable of limiting speed so that it won't exceed the speed limit. So potentially even a speedometer is antiquated.

Yes, you are probably right about numerical info. However, the HUD will also replace the current dashboard display that shows the road, other cars, etc.

 

[Value Ev]

AFAIK Tesla shutdown in Oct to change over to AP2 HW. t.

Funny!
People actually believe that the company shut down the line for a significant period of time for something as simple as installing ap2, especially after earlier reports that cars were delivered with what looked like ap2 ready.

Just look at how long the line shut down for the front fascia Redo. Lol.

 

[JRP3]

Nope, you are reading it wrong: "The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States"

I've gone back and forth on this one, but I think your interpretation is correct. To rephrase, the phase out begins in the second quarter after 200K are sold. So first quarter after 200K, full credit, second quarter after 200K, phase out begins. I'm assuming "phase out" means only partial rebate.

 

[Green Pete]

Yes, you are probably right about numerical info. However, the HUD will also replace the current dashboard display that shows the road, other cars, etc.

Is that data actually useful for something to LOOK at? Or it is there to prove that the software works? I dont think starting at two cars ahead on your dash is actually going to improve safety while driving.

 

[3Victoria]

Is that data actually useful for something to LOOK at? Or it is there to prove that the software works? I dont think starting at two cars ahead on your dash is actually going to improve safety while driving.

No, but it is reassuring to the operator that the car has seen objects. This video shows an example.

 

[RobStark]

There must be a reason other car companies have held back. Avoid the model X error of packing too much in at once. Minimize the effect on service centers should something go wrong.

The legacy automakers don't offer HUD in lieu of standard gauges because of their innate conservatism and fear of offending the large majority of buyers that fear change.

They don't add HUD in addition to standard gauges because customers are unwilling to pay the premium in addition to paying for an instrument cluster.

HUD is not falcon wing doors or " most beautiful monopost seats ever installed in a vehicle."

The vast majority of Tesla buyers don't fear change; if they did they wouldn't be Tesla buyers.

It is a proven mature technology that no legacy automaker CEO has the balls to implement.


Our CEO

 

[RobStark]

Really the only information one needs on a dash while driving is current speed. Without full autonomy a Tesla seems already fully capable of limiting speed so that it won't exceed the speed limit. So potentially even a speedometer is antiquated.

That would be the best way to piss away the highest margin sales of Model S and send those customers to Porsche for the Mission E.

Even after full autonomy is 99.99999999999% perfect buyers will still want to experience the Tesla grin. And drive 10 mph faster than the speed limit on open highways.

 

[Green Pete]

That would be the best way to piss away the highest margin sales of Model S and send those customers to Porsche for the Mission E.

Even after full autonomy is 99.99999999999% perfect buyers will still want to experience the Tesla grin. And drive 10 mph faster than the speed limit on open highways.

This is more about the model 3s lack of dashboard. I guess that might also be the cash with some model 3 drivers, but I don't see the model 3 being that type of car. So it doesn't need to exceed the speed limit. I honestly think it's only going to need a steering wheel because of regulations.

Spaceships don't have steering wheels.

 

[RobStark]

This is more about the model 3s lack of dashboard. I guess that might also be the cash with some model 3 drivers, but I don't see the model 3 being that type of car. So it doesn't need to exceed the speed limit. I honestly think it's only going to need a steering wheel because of regulations.

Spaceships don't have steering wheels.

But they do have steering controls.

I see Model 3 being exactly that type of car. Musk already said Ludicrous will be offered.

Many/Most Model 3 drivers will still want to drive for pleasure. Just not in bumper to bumper rush hour commutes. Musk has repeatedly said Model 3 will target Audi A4 and BMW 3 Series. I have never heard Musk say he intends to make Model 3 a commuter pod. An autonomous all electric Prius.

You don't need to make $100k/year to enjoy driving.

 

[dennis]

You don't need to make $100k/year to enjoy driving.

Yeah, just look for the grins on the faces of Subaru WRX and STI drivers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

US Model S deliveries for new orders were just pushed back to March. Demand and orders are clearly extremely strong.

The Model S and Model X delivery threads also are showing a ton of activity -- I think there will be a very strong finish to 2016 on deliveries. Although some caution is warranted on final Q16 numbers still looks to me like a meet or beat on delivery guidance is more likely than not.

And financials should be very good, given everything that has been done this quarter to boost average prices and margins.

I agree that there are indications that demand for Model S is strong, but the fact that sales were pushed from February to March in the matter of few days might not be because of the quantity of received orders, but due to the fact that only small portion of production in the first half of the Q1 will be allocated to building US cars, as almost full production will be allocated for building Asian, and then European cars. So this is an indication that Tesla will continue with the geography based batching of the production, and will not be filling Model S delivery pipeline during the Q1. Similar quick change in estimated delivery times was made during the Q4 of last year.

 

[dennis]

US Model S deliveries for new orders were just pushed back to March. Demand and orders are clearly extremely strong.

The Model S and Model X delivery threads also are showing a ton of activity -- I think there will be a very strong finish to 2016 on deliveries. Although some caution is warranted on final Q16 numbers still looks to me like a meet or beat on delivery guidance is more likely than not.

And financials should be very good, given everything that has been done this quarter to boost average prices and margins.

The one wildcard that is being overlooked by many observers IMO is the several thousand delivery-miles-only inventory cars that Tesla is producing and selling this quarter. It is my belief that whatever methodology InsideEVs uses to estimate monthly sales isn't accounting for these purchases because this is a new wrinkle in Tesla's sales strategy.

I was burned in Q2 when the US Model S delivery date for new orders moved out of the quarter earlier than normal. I thought that meant they had the quarter made. Instead it was because of production delays in converting the line to the facelifted Model S. So while I don't doubt that demand is robust there is still the possibility that production delays could keep Tesla from meeting the Q4 guidance.

OTOH I feel positive about gross margin improvements because of product mix and less discounting. Really telling to me is that Tesla didn't make any inventory 60's at all this quarter. So if you want a 60 you have to wait but you can get a new 75S/D right now, with 283 currently in inventory. There even 22 P100D inventory cars available. I am really hoping for Pie 2.0 this quarter because of GAAP profitability without tons of ZEV credits and more cash generated from operations. Fingers crossed!