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I'm starting to get the feeling @myusername is actually pretty well versed in the art of TA and trading.... But doesn't care about fundamentals and the inner workings of the company. Nothing wrong with that, it's what works for him.
Myusename, do you factor in upcoming events into your strategies, like production number and earnings announcements, or find them more of a nuisance and prefer to stick to the charts without surprises affecting things? I'm just curious....
Myusename, do you factor in upcoming events into your strategies, like production number and earnings announcements, or find them more of a nuisance and prefer to stick to the charts without surprises affecting things? I'm just curious....
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
To be clear I'm not saying China is not capable of producing a top quality automobile, or anything else for that matter. But for whatever reason there seems to be an inherent culture of producing substandard products for as long as they can get away with it, i.e. find customers willing to buy. Americans often complain about Made In China products but continue to buy them in droves because "the price is right".
Ameliorate
Member
Thanks for sharing, I mostly trade in options as well, often not that short term though. Obviously I'm much more biased to Tesla becoming a massive company. I agree on most points, especially how lame it would be to be range bound around 180-200. There's money to be made on big swings, something Tesla seems famous for.
IF Tesla misses guidance for Q4 180 might be in the books, I think it would Really have to be quite disastrous to even consider 150 though. I'm optimistic about our delivery predictions thread, as the crowd average was very close last time. Just tallied up the thread and we have a current crowd average of 25,952 deliveries over 32 votes.
I'm in the camp that another decent (roughly neutral) quarter would dispel the idea of q3 gaming the books, and have some significant implications going forward. I'm hoping 2017 can clear up a lot about tesla's capex and what that money will do for future production and income as opposed to the idea of tesla burning cash. When Tesla Energy becomes relevant will be another large turning point on reducing risk, as those investments pay off and start to generate reliable income which in turn reduces risk on other ventures.
Yes the model 3 is very much a make or break item, however it no longer feels like we have an inexperienced company with very limited finances taking their first stab at a product. I think we have a moderately experienced company making a very simple car with increasingly obvious cash flow from models S and X. We also have acquired some top tier talent to assist in making production goals a reality. Catastrophic failure is not in the books for me, odds are equal to that of a natural disaster. A slightly delayed launch? That I could believe, but not to any extent that would be crippling to Tesla.
Anyways, here's to some volatility. Do your best Tesla.
Wow! You're sounding positively bullish compared to many of your earlier statements!
3Victoria
Active Member
I am starting to appreciate that for some bear/bull is relative. So if Tesla gets down to 160-180 they are bullish and if it is 240-260 they are bearish (obviously these are just numbers I picked for recent history) since Tesla oscillates quite widely. Unfortunately, the oscillatipns have a moving centre!
my general approach to analysis for virtually anything is to absorb all data... and then make a decision... then do it over again... and again... and again... it requires more effort than picking a single approach... where the general approaches are: fundamentals, stock technicals and belief.
my sentiment on fundamentals has been hashed out on this board, especially over the first month or so... i think Tesla trading at $300+ or a mkt cap equal to BMW is nuts... right now... if we were 2 years or more down the road and we saw massive successes with M3 and TE... then I'd have a different opinion... which means... if TSLA does continue to ramp up for the next 30 days... I'll be looking for a top.
i simply can't understand those that even consider $100b+ to $1T mkt caps at this time... it's just wishful thinking... which makes me think Elon's statements related to this are reckless.
i joined this board to understand belief... and it's actually helped me understand why TSLA holds $180 supports.
and then the charts are easy... but should normally only be looked at for rough targets... honestly... the accuracy in my charts over the last few sessions is somewhat rare... but I usually have a few weeks of this kind of accuracy about 3 or 4 times a year... and it worked out very well for me over these last few days... the primary algo driving this pattern is way too obvious... i expect they'll adjust it soon considering it's being traded against... certainly by more than just me.
The similar rise you are referring to started not last February, but last March.
I am following this similarity with the rise from last March to ATH $286.65 for a while now, here is one of the examples back from the end of October. Both last year's and this year's triangles had fake breakdowns, which look similar, before the uptrend was established. I can't find your post at the moment, but you were objecting to my reasoning repeatedly, saying that breakdown is not fake and TSLA will go much further down, so what made you change your mind? Here is updated chart with the two triangles that I was posting several times, starting back in October. I think that good report of deliveries in Q4, followed on by the Q4 ER could indeed set TSLA up for a ATH run. Double bottom at ~ $180 makes this setup look quite ominous to anybody staying short at this point.
I do remember objecting to the triangle chart you had posted... I had decided that the descending triangle was dominant and that the jan/feb drop was noise... and what I saw as an inverted cup and handle forming was what made me call the drop below $200 while at the very moment those on this board were calling for $230/$250 when it was reaching for $215... the drop below $200 did happen... it just didn't materialize into the expected 15% to 20% drop off the handle... which is bullish.
with that... i do not mind being wrong... as long as I don't realize it too late
... and your chart is telling... but there is still room for a downward swing to continue that trend.what will absolutely change my mind is a sustained break from the 5 year double head and shoulders... which admittedly is happening right now... if this continues for the next few weeks... then you were right... and there'd be no reason to not expect significant upside.
EDIT: from a purely technical perspective only... there's still lots of macro things that can occur in the next month or two.
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I do remember objecting to the triangle chart you had posted... I had decided that the descending triangle was dominant and that the jan/feb drop was noise... and what I saw as an inverted cup and handle forming was what made me call the drop below $200 while at the very moment those on this board were calling for $230/$250 when it was reaching for $215... the drop below $200 did happen... it just didn't materialize into the expected 15% to 20% drop off the handle... which is bullish.
with that... i do not mind being wrong... as long as I don't realize it too late
what will absolutely change my mind is a sustained break from the 5 year double head and shoulders... which admittedly is happening right now... if this continues for the next few weeks... then you were right... and there'd be no reason to not expect significant upside.
Double head and shoulders? Are you really serious, expecting TSLA to go sub $100? Even from pure technicals the shoulders are not even close to being symmetrical...
sundaymorning
Active Member
@myusername thanks for sticking around and providing information for discussion despite being on the opposite side of the discussion most of the time.
LOL:
Uber maintains it does not need a permit because the cars are not sophisticated enough to continuously drive themselves, although the company promotes them as "self-driving."
it's a long term chart... and it was teetering on symmetry... and there are many many people other than me that believe that TSLA can reasonably trade under $100 that were also reviewing it from the same perspective... but here we are... i'd be happy to completely wipe that theory off charts... and stop trying to chase it... you may soon find me becoming very long... but there's still so much Tesla has to do. we MUST start hearing about TE successes... and we MUST start hearing about M3 reaffirmed goals... and we MUST NOT see SCTY drag.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I'm thinking TSLA may jump 213 this week. That would be easiest way over ichimoku cloud on the weekly. But, you've certainly been more right than I have in calling micro moves. If SP does end up above cloud end of Friday, I'll get even longer, and put all my reserves to work...
After all, this is what SP did on a daily level, it got over it at the thinest point, which I anticipated few days ahead(without being sure)... Lots of technical indicators are aligning for Tesla up. And, from my poking at VINs produced and inventory level, I get impression they may be KILLING it this quarter, so perhaps that's what some big buyers are sensing/knowing?
Here is another TE microgrid, this one using 2MWh worth of Tesla PP, installed at a resort on Fiji. The body of the article implies that these are PP2 @ 200kWh each, but in the embedded video (make sure to watch) the representative of the company that installed the system indicates that these are 100kWh PP, i.e. first generation. This is also consistent with the date installation was completed (back in October) and Dynapower inverters shown in the video.
This is poster card for a typical use of solar/storage for remote areas. According to the developer, the payback for this system is only 4.5 years
This is poster card for a typical use of solar/storage for remote areas. According to the developer, the payback for this system is only 4.5 years
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dennis
Model S Plaid
Thanks for explaining your approach and thinking. There is one aspect of Tesla's prospects that I have never had adequately debunked by anyone who is long term bearish view on the stock. It is the intersection of demand, growth rate and valuation.
1) Demand - 373,000 deposits received for a $35K+ product based on one 30 minute webcast is unprecedented. To me it shows the depth of demand for the right product from a company that has created a very positive brand image. It is the equivalent of the lines outside the Apple stores when a new iPhone is released but at a 50x price point. Most CEO's would kill for that kind of latent demand.
2) Growth rate - Tesla has about $8B in revenue in 2016 including Solar City. At the point where it is delivering 500K cars in a year it will have at least $27B in automotive revenue plus Tesla Energy and Tesla Solar. So $30B+. Depending on whether you think that year is 2019 or 2020 the CAGR is 55% or 40%. On $8B. That even exceeds the growth rate of the FANGs at an equivalent size, which is truly rarefied company.
3) Valuation - If Tesla exceeds the growth rates of the FANGs and delivers $30B in revenue in 2019 or 2020, how should it be valued? It is likely to have lower margins than FNG, but equal or higher margins compared to AMZN. Do you value it on P/E or P/S? Certainly the market won't value it the same as BMW that is growing 9%/year. The market gives outsized valuations to companies that are growing exceptionally fast because the market is always projecting forward earnings. Can you justify why Tesla in this scenario would have a P/E or P/S less than Amazon's (179 and 3.5 respectively), other than you can't fathom that Tesla could command a $100B+ market cap in 3-4 years?
Based on what you said earlier my guess is you believe there is too much risk to bet on Tesla achieving this growth rate. I can identify 5 categories:
1) Demand - addressed above
2) Competitive - another long topic, but unless you consider the Bolt a threat the earliest we will see a potentially credible competitor is in 2018 with the Audi Q6, followed by Mercedes in 2019 and BMW in 2021. Plus there is the long distance charging infrastructure issue for all of them
3) Availability of capital - definitely a risk, hasn't been an issue in the past and it appears that Wheeler/Musk are de-risking here with more prudent management of capital and OCF growing now that they are at a 100K annual delivery rate.
4) Execution - This is the big one. We will know in 12 months.
5) Elon factor - Hard one to quantify. Will he get defocused again? Do another acquisition from left field? Thumb his nose at Wall Street?
I guess the bottom line is are the risks so great that you have to apply a huge discount factor to what Tesla could potentially achieve in revenue and valuation in 3-4 years? Otherwise, do you agree that if Tesla does reach $30B in revenue in 2019 or 2020 that it deserves a $100B valuation at that time? If not, why not?
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I strongly believe TSLA is a multi-bagger. Is it 2x, 3x, 10x? from this levels I don't know.
Just so you understand I'm prob not completely crazy, before Tesla, with similar analysis and deep dive into fundamentals, moat and corporate culture, I've recognized and made lots of money on FB: 24->75, AMZN 290->530 and NFLX(pre-split) 280->630
As you notice from exit prices, if anything, I've exited too early...
And then I managed to lose almost all multi-year gains from other stocks on TSLA
But, there is such thing as reversion to mean, so... $380 will put me back in good shape
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