Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dennis]

Oh. How did you manage to get on this tour? Are you someone special or did you just sign up?

The general rule is that factory tours are available to owners and their guests. I'm sure there are exceptions but in my case I own a Model S.

 

[Fallenone]

I realize the reporting from CNBC isn't always perfect. However, I've seen numerous reports from CNBC reporters that cover the auto sector saying that the build quality of Chinese autos has been laughable historically. Yet, in the last couple of years they have narrowed that gap. I think we would be naive to think the Chinese cant figure out manufacturing given enough time and incentive.

It may indeed improve a lot compared to a decade ago. But, Chinese consumers would rather buy a foreign car if they can afford it. Quality of cars from Chinese manufacture is just so inconsistent and you need to rely on luck to not get a bad one.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

These are some questions and observations we should be discussing.

1) Why does Jonas claim to believe the Model 3 will be delayed by 1-2 years?

2) Why aren't credible analysts ascribing any value to SolarCity? There is no scenario based on facts in which SolarCity is worth $0.

3) The Gigafactory being ahead of schedule has not been mentioned by any credible analysts.

4) Tesla's extended credit line and Panasonic's comments about being more than happy to accelerate its investment in the Gigafactory if Tesla asks it to have been completely ignored.

5) Today was caused by RSI and short term consolidation.

6) There is no logical reason Tesla fell from $220 to $185.

7) Those short SolarCity are now short Tesla. It will be very hard for these people to cover.

8) The Major SolarCity institutional shareholders and insiders who held shares into the merger aren't going to sell. This means the merger should have a neutral impact on the Float.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Suggestion:

As many people from TMC as possible should contact a local GM dealer to inquire about when the Bolt will be available and post the response they get on here. Based on the comments I've seen posted on here I suspect we'll see a few very funny responses.


Maybe this will confuse GM into thinking demand is much higher than it is?


Amazingly some analysts still think vehicles based on the Chevy Bolt platform will have statistically significant market share by 2020.

 

[larmor]

These are some questions and observations we should be discussing.

1) Why does Jonas claim to believe the Model 3 will be delayed by 1-2 years?

2) Why aren't credible analysts ascribing any value to SolarCity? There is no scenario based on facts in which SolarCity is worth $0.

3) The Gigafactory being ahead of schedule has not been mentioned by any credible analysts.

4) Tesla's extended credit line and Panasonic's comments about being more than happy to accelerate its investment in the Gigafactory if Tesla asks it to have been completely ignored.

5) Today was caused by RSI and short term consolidation.

6) There is no logical reason Tesla fell from $220 to $185.

7) Those short SolarCity are now short Tesla. It will be very hard for these people to cover.

8) The Major SolarCity institutional shareholders and insiders who held shares into the merger aren't going to sell. This means the merger should have a neutral impact on the Float.

Re #2: There are no longer facts. Facts are not marketable as pieces of information or data, and as such are intrinsically without value...

 

[3Victoria]

These are some questions and observations we should be discussing.

1) Why does Jonas claim to believe the Model 3 will be delayed by 1-2 years?

Because he misread the Tesla website where it says if you order today delivery is in 2018. He thought all 3s deliver in 2018. Oops.

2) Why aren't credible analysts ascribing any value to SolarCity? There is no scenario based on facts in which SolarCity is worth $0.

Cause they are auto-analysts and can't contemplate past their noses?

3) The Gigafactory being ahead of schedule has not been mentioned by any credible analysts.

This just ho-hum to them. Doesn't the OEM just buy batteries on the open market?

4) Tesla's extended credit line and Panasonic's comments about being more than happy to accelerate its investment in the Gigafactory if Tesla asks it to have been completely ignored.

Beats me.

....

On the one hand they are clueless, on the other they are hedging their bets, and on the gripping hand they are leaving lots of room for Tesla to beat and cause a wild up swing.

 

[ggies07]

Now, while I agree and I'm glad to see this type of thinking at another company, it certainly is assbackwards for them.......GM wants to be 100% renewable one day while making a product that pollutes the air and not transitioning quickly enough to EV products.

General Motors’ sustainability chief says Trump can’t stop the green energy boom

 

[EnzoXYZ]

No way this is the result from Trump's threats. "One China" policy as with other issues related to sovereignty is at the top of the list not only for Chinese government but Chinese people. It's equivalent to "democracy" in US. Kissinger nailed this in a book of his several years ago.

I suspect this change is coming from the smog issues.

I should have been more clear but I meant reciprocal import tax. Not sure what one china has to do with anything directly on business formation.

 

[HG Wells]

On the one hand they are clueless, on the other they are hedging their bets, and on the gripping hand they are leaving lots of room for Tesla to beat and cause a wild up swing.

Hope you are not implying that moties will produce Model 3 ?
Have they escaped already ?

The use of watchmakers is Alien Dreadnought 1.0 not moties.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

i think the pattern is the driver for this pop too... i'm expecting it to close flat back at ~$208... if it breaks below... then this may have been the end of the upward pattern... but we'll see... just a bunch of lines in the end trying to track human (like) behavior.

You've been killing it lately, thanks

 

[KLC13]

You've been killing it lately, thanks

Right on, just like $TSLA, my respect for 'myusername' has gone up significantly in the last few days... Its like a Christmas miracle

 

[ZsoZso]

You've been killing it lately, thanks

Or maybe he is leaking info from the internal memo of the Market Manipulators (or the Tesla Shorting Cartel), that details the battle plan for the next day or two

 

[doctoxics]

China to allow EV makers to setup in the country. That's very good news for Tesla methinks:

China opens the doors for Tesla and other foreign automakers to produce electric vehicles in the country

In time, this new China policy will have a major impact on Tesla. Elon was not willing to go forward with a Chinese partner and made a turn to Europe. My view is that China got the message and will now create rules where Tesla can build and control their own factory in China. If Panasonic is comfortable with the new rules, they may join Tesla in China to build Gigafactory3, producing batteries, energy storage and cars all in one building, similar to what has been suggested for Europe. Now if we can recruit Chinese investors (and/or governments) to provide the land and capital for the new factory - their interest, in addition to return on investment, is jobs and cleaner air.

 

[wsucougz]

Agreed on all points, but would like to throw in my 2 cents for a different #1, partly because it will come sooner than the 3, and partly because it will change everything. Though unlike your milestones, this one comes more from the speculation dept:

1) Tesla Energy comes of age: The day it becomes clear Tesla will have another large stream of revenue.

Success of the 3 is critical. But as long as most of the revenue comes from cars, the argument can still be made that Tesla is mostly just another automobile manufacturer. While that's the case, it will continue to give some investors pause due to the way the sector is valued, and the perception that there are vultures all around it.

In the near future, a TE announcement will be made that forces the investment community to start looking at the company as something else entirely***. This announcement will contain some combination of the following: Significant pre-orders for Powerwall 2.0/Powerpack 2.0, very large-scale utility project(s), further statement on demand that will overwhelm GF capacity, etc. It could come as soon as Jan. 4th.

**They may decide instead to hold some of these cards close to the vest, though that doesn't seem to fit the mission statement. Either way, selling a whole lot of something other than cars will obviously be a big positive for the stock for many reasons. Just a matter of when. 2017 looks like a big year for TE.

 

[wsucougz]

The above was meant to be a response to dennis' previous post. Somehow the tags got screwed up and I can't find a way to edit the post. Anyhow: Tesla Energy. 2017.

 

[Yuri_G]

"Tesla Autopilot vision neural net now working well. Just need to get a lot of road time to validate in a wide range of environments."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Is this in reference to full autonomy or when 2.0 will be on par with all of 1.0's features?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

"Tesla Autopilot vision neural net now working well. Just need to get a lot of road time to validate in a wide range of environments."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Is this in reference to full autonomy or when 2.0 will be on par with all of 1.0's features?

later one

 

[myusername]

this is a perfect setup for a massive rise similar to last Feb... breaking out of what is an enormous bull flag in 2016... while my general sentiment on Tesla as a company is short... I trade options for gains... and while it might seem ridiculous to analyze 5 year charts for short term movements... Tesla moves stupid fast when it goes up due to the large short holdings... the short term upside (30-45 days) could reach $280+... but this is the last chance for TSLA... it either continues to break out in this $10/week pattern (as was pointed out by another poster) for another 5 weeks or so with large movements upward... or it collapses back to the downward trendline starting in early 2016... if the latter happens then there's no reason we shouldn't see a large drop to sub $150.

I trade weeklies... that's why I search for short term weekly trends like the one I've been posting... then trade against them... I try not to trade against my ideology... which at this point means my sentiment towards Tesla long term is negative... but my 60 day outlook will be extremely long if it breaks $215/$220 next week... any significant weakness... like trading under $205 in the next 3 days without quick recovery to recent trendlines... and I will be extremely short.

I think this sentiment reflects the incredible point Tesla is in with it's business... make or break time.

if it drops back into $180 to $200 and trades in that range for the next 3 months... I will be very disappointed.

 

[myusername]

Trying to understand what you're showing here - why does your time axis seem to show uneven divisions of time on the right edge (Thursday on right edge is much wider than any other time bracket and the leftmost Friday is weird and missing its Thursday (is that one US Thanksgiving weekend?))

If I'm reading your graph right, the major divisions are $10 SP increments, and it looks like the overall pattern should hold around 208 until about Friday morning when the rising trendline collides with it, at which point either we'll have another up day to the tune of a several dollar jump, or we break the trend.

If this rising trendline continues with a jump on friday though, it will likely plop us right in the arena of the 200 day SMA at around 213-214, which could result in more technical traders piling on.

EDIT: Also interesting, the slope of that rising trendline is almost exactly $10/week.

the axis are distorted in the days after current trading because the software platform I'm using is crap... and that's why my "guesses" for the jump last week were off by about 8-12 trading hours... so I'd recommend anyone following this chart this themselves if they're trying to time the next jump... my guess is next Monday... meaning I'm not trusting the right side of my chart.

*** but this pattern can end at any time *** --- breaking below the ramp line would be a negative signal.

good catch on the $10 increments... the first few jumps starting from $180 weren't obvious, but it seems like that's right.

max pain has moved from $187.50 to $202.50 (today) in the last 5 sessions or so... "they" like to close it within $5 (or right on)... so I don't expect a break above $210 by Friday's close... but who knows.

and btw... i've done this sort of thing in the past on other boards... been called a "savant"... but it's just computers... doing stuff... and they happen to be predictable sometimes.

 

[tslagreen]

View attachment 207089
this is a perfect setup for a massive rise similar to last Feb... breaking out of what is an enormous bull flag in 2016... while my general sentiment on Tesla as a company is short... I trade options for gains... and while it might seem ridiculous to analyze 5 year charts for short term movements... Tesla moves stupid fast when it goes up due to the large short holdings... the short term upside (30-45 days) could reach $280+... but this is the last chance for TSLA... it either continues to break out in this $10/week pattern (as was pointed out by another poster) for another 5 weeks or so with large movements upward... or it collapses back to the downward trendline starting in early 2016... if the latter happens then there's no reason we shouldn't see a large drop to sub $150.

I trade weeklies... that's why I search for short term weekly trends like the one I've been posting... then trade against them... I try not to trade against my ideology... which at this point means my sentiment towards Tesla long term is negative... but my 60 day outlook will be extremely long if it breaks $215/$220 next week... any significant weakness... like trading under $205 in the next 3 days without quick recovery to recent trendlines... and I will be extremely short.

I think this sentiment reflects the incredible point Tesla is in with it's business... make or break time.

if it drops back into $180 to $200 and trades in that range for the next 3 months... I will be very disappointed.

"My sentiment towards Tesla long term is negative...." Why? I am not a chart reader and can appreciate stock chart analysis, but would question the overall sentiment. I can't think of another company, currently, with the growth potential of Tesla other than perhaps Nvidia.