Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Mike Smith]

Does anyone have a copy of the Spiegel presentation video? He said on twitter that one exists but I haven't come across it. It will become a seminal event in tsla lore and needs to be preserved so future generations can enjoy it.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Does anyone have a copy of the Spiegel presentation video? He said on twitter that one exists but I haven't come across it. It will become a seminal event in tsla lore and needs to be preserved so future generations can enjoy it.

I have already sacrificed my copy to the Gods.

 

[madodel]

I have already sacrificed my copy to the Gods.

Is it possible to flush a digital video?

 

[erthquake]

I have already sacrificed my copy to the Gods.

Ran out of toilet paper, eh?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Deliveries are really hard to figure this quarter. Bonaire and some bears are tracking ~18,000 and optimists are around 27,000. Looking at model S tracking it seems that October orders didn't begin deliveries in the USA until mid November, leaving a long lag from Q3 to initial Q4 deliveries. Where and when were the 5000 in transit cars go? Did they go to inventory and no new deliveries go out after October without AP 2?
I'm not really understanding the numbers at this point. Seems like vin assignments and production tracks to 26,500 or more, but deliveries are tracking around 20,000 without huge china and USA December.
Thinking Friday weekly puts would have been good insurance and sell them Tuesday before GF reveal part deux. I think guidance for 2017 is going to be interesting. Q1 is likely to be ~30,000 if Q4 misses at all.

To customers, NOT inventory. NOT 5,000, but 5,500. If these are the questions pondered by the members of the "call me skeptical" team, they need to do their homework before coming up with projections.

From Tesla Q3 2016 Production and deliveries PR:

"In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 5,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will not be counted as deliveries until Q4."

 

[vgrinshpun]

Happier, healthier and more joyful New Year to everybody!

Let it be filled with better trading and moderating () decisions...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does anyone have a copy of the Spiegel presentation video? He said on twitter that one exists but I haven't come across it. It will become a seminal event in tsla lore and needs to be preserved so future generations can enjoy it.

Having copies of those would be great to have around the house in case of pest infestation. Just plaster individual pages across the walls and pests will die of laughter...

 

[dc_h]

To customers, NOT inventory. NOT 5,000, but 5,500. If these are the questions pondered by the members of the "call me skeptical" team, they need to do their homework before coming up with projections.

From Tesla Q3 2016 Production and deliveries PR:

"In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 5,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will not be counted as deliveries until Q4."

Where did they go? We aren't seeing 5500 deliveries in October? Read my posts, I'm not a value investor, I'm trying to understand the gap in estimated deliveries and estimated production. If they went to customers, where did October and November production go?

Ps: while in transit they are inventory, no?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Where did they go? We aren't seeing 5500 deliveries in October? Read my posts, I'm not a value investor, I'm trying to understand the gap in estimated deliveries and estimated production. If they went to customers, where did October and November production go?

The 5,500 went to customers across continents. Great majority of the cars built in October and November were delivered in Decemeber as production was batched by geographical region: asia + Pacific first, Europe next, US last. This was discussed many times in detail in this and other threads. Similar extreme batching was done in Q4 2015, when deliveries exceeded production by 3,363 cars. That is why my prediction is that there will be around 2,500 cars built, and around 2,7500 cars delivered in Q4 (there are indications that there was less geographical batching for MX than MS).

Here is snapshot of the quarterly deliveries/production from my records:

 

[sundaymorning]

Trolls are have a field day with "confusion" about deliveries again, sigh, this happens every quarter. You can't teach an old dog new tricks. Tesla grows 50% year over year in a $2 trillion market, what is so confusing about this? It's a massive opportunity to get slaughtered if you're short.

 

[dennis]

Deliveries are really hard to figure this quarter. Bonaire and some bears are tracking ~18,000 and optimists are around 27,000. Looking at model S tracking it seems that October orders didn't begin deliveries in the USA until mid November, leaving a long lag from Q3 to initial Q4 deliveries. Where and when were the 5000 in transit cars go? Did they go to inventory and no new deliveries go out after October without AP 2?
I'm not really understanding the numbers at this point. Seems like vin assignments and production tracks to 26,500 or more, but deliveries are tracking around 20,000 without huge china and USA December.
Thinking Friday weekly puts would have been good insurance and sell them Tuesday before GF reveal part deux. I think guidance for 2017 is going to be interesting. Q1 is likely to be ~30,000 if Q4 misses at all.

As I have posted before, Q4 is different because of two related things:
1) The AP2 hardware introduction in mid October
2) A conscious decision to build many more inventory cars than in prior quarters

From late Sep to early Oct Tesla just built AP1 inventory cars so as to not disappoint custom orders By delivering them AP1 with the AP2 announcement imminent. After the AP2 hardware started production in mid Oct Tesla produced custom international orders and continued to build inventory cars but with AP2 hardware. Then in mid Nov they switched to building custom orders for North America.

So why the big increase in inventory cars? I believe that Tesla found that they could turn more prospects into customers sooner by reducing the wait for a car from 1-3 months to 2 weeks or less. Much less important it allows them to offer discounts if necessary without having to "advertise" them.

I am confident that Tesla will meet or exceed their Q4 guidance (my number is 26,600 deliveries). What gives me the most confidence is that in checking the delivery thread I did not find a single order that was placed in December and delivered in Q4. All deliveries in Q4 were confirmed in November at the latest. As shown in prior quarters Tesla has the ability to produce and delivery cars for California that are ordered within 2 weeks of quarter's end. The didn't see the need to do that this quarter.

So unless there were production snags that didn't allow them to build the December custom orders even though they needed to we should be good. Even that scenario is unlikely to me because they built a lot of AP2 inventory cars that were not guaranteed sales whereas the custom orders are.

 

[schonelucht]

The 5,500 went to customers across continents. Great majority of the cars built in October and November were delivered in Decemeber as production was batched by geographical region

Not sure I follow. Those 5500 cars were not built in October?

Regardless, the 5500 are a red herring. There will be around the same amount in transit end of this year.

 

[dc_h]

As I have posted before, Q4 is different because of two related things:
1) The AP2 hardware introduction in mid October
2) A conscious decision to build many more inventory cars than in prior quarters

From late Sep to early Oct Tesla just built AP1 inventory cars so as to not disappoint custom orders By delivering them AP1 with the AP2 announcement imminent. After the AP2 hardware started production in mid Oct Tesla produced custom international orders and continued to build inventory cars but with AP2 hardware. Then in mid Nov they switched to building custom orders for North America.

So why the big increase in inventory cars? I believe that Tesla found that they could turn more prospects into customers sooner by reducing the wait for a car from 1-3 months to 2 weeks or less. Much less important it allows them to offer discounts if necessary without having to "advertise" them.

I am confident that Tesla will meet or exceed their Q4 guidance (my number is 26,600 deliveries). What gives me the most confidence is that in checking the delivery thread I did not find a single order that was placed in December and delivered in Q4. All deliveries in Q4 were confirmed in November at the latest. As shown in prior quarters Tesla has the ability to produce and delivery cars for California that are ordered within 2 weeks of quarter's end. The didn't see the need to do that this quarter.

So unless there were production snags that didn't allow them to build the December custom orders even though they needed to we should be good. Even that scenario is unlikely to me because they built a lot of AP2 inventory cars that were not guaranteed sales whereas the custom orders are.

Hope you are correct. With only estimated global deliveries of ~11,000 in October and November, trolls, like me? (that have been following SpaceX for 10 years and Tesla almost as long) are wondering how much batching can be targeted for December. If they hit it, it's a huge win. Q1 seems sold out and I think 30,000 is not unlikely.

 

[Green Pete]

What dividend?

I'm sure Tesla will pay one out when they have cash in the bank

 

[1kEE]

Mind if I change the subject away from delivery numbers?

What's everyone's guess as to macros come beginning of 2017? What do you all think, Trump rally continues after end-of-year profit taking / rebalancing / low volume ? Or last week's decline continues?

 

[1kEE]

Sounds good. Holding 1000 shares at $180 till they reach $2000 each. Thinking 10 years tops

I prefer stating the size of my position in terms of % of net worth or % or investment portfolio. It's a lot more informative as there are traders here that are quite varied in magnitude.

For example I'm currently 30% of net worth into TSLA and of that, 3/4 is stock and 1/4 options, some weeklies (yipes!). That conveys my sentiment and level of aggressiveness towards the stock a lot better than just number of shares.

 

[3Victoria]

Park Sméagol's presentation for prosperity: A small hedge fund manager threw shade at Tesla's Elon Musk at a private conference and said the stock was going to zero

 

[techmaven]

Not sure I follow. Those 5500 cars were not built in October?

Regardless, the 5500 are a red herring. There will be around the same amount in transit end of this year.

No... the 5,500 is overhang, built in Q3. Delivered in across the globe, maybe about half in Asia.

I expect a draw down this quarter... maybe by about half, maybe a bit more. I think about a week's worth, or about 2,000 to 2,500 vehicle overhang this quarter.

 

[madodel]

I'm sure Tesla will pay one out when they have cash in the bank

And the trolls will declare any dividend an unsustainable cash burn and Ponzi scheme.

 

[dc_h]

Mind if I change the subject away from delivery numbers?

What's everyone's guess as to macros come beginning of 2017? What do you all think, Trump rally continues after end-of-year profit taking / rebalancing / low volume ? Or last week's decline continues?

I think the rally will pause, but no correction. I think Dow 25,000 is more likely than Dow 15,000 in the next 18 months. Infrastructure investment and tax reform could free up 1-2% growth for USA, which will help Europe as well.