Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MikeC]

Throwing this out there to let interested parties know they can publicly comment on direct sales vs. dealership model: Tesla Meeting with the Federal Trade Commission (Request for Comment)

Direct link: https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/autodistribution/

 

[Thumper]

Thanks MikeC for the heads-up and link. My comment has been submitted.

 

[Fallenone]

Thanks Mike, just submitted mine.

Throwing this out there to let interested parties know they can publicly comment on direct sales vs. dealership model: Tesla Meeting with the Federal Trade Commission (Request for Comment)

Direct link: https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/autodistribution/

 

[Papafox]

Consider TSLA's evolving recovery. In the past few weeks we've gone from:
* plunging downward every morning and staying down
* plunging downward every morning and recovering somewhat
*plunging down on mornings and recovering into the green
* spiking upwards in mornings but losing much of that gain as the day went on
and finally today
* spiking upwards in morning and not only holding the gain but increasing it as the day moved forward

Slowly, the pessimism that has haunted this stock during the macro downturn is being replaced with renewed optimism. Much welcomed.

 

[ibcs]

Consider TSLA's evolving recovery. In the past few weeks we've gone from:
* plunging downward every morning and staying down
* plunging downward every morning and recovering somewhat
*plunging down on mornings and recovering into the green
* spiking upwards in mornings but losing much of that gain as the day went on
and finally today
* spiking upwards in morning and not only holding the gain but increasing it as the day moved forward

Slowly, the pessimism that has haunted this stock during the macro downturn is being replaced with renewed optimism. Much welcomed.

Your description is dead on. May pessimism retreat into the past and the deliveries begin.

 

[Blip]

May I just remind all about the fact that almost all stocks are up, and that TSLA most days follows NASDAQ (multiplied by a factor). I know it's boring, but empirical data is on my side... ;-)

 

[AlMc]

May I just remind all about the fact that almost all stocks are up, and that TSLA most days follows NASDAQ (multiplied by a factor). I know it's boring, but empirical data is on my side... ;-)

Agreed. The macro headwinds of the last 5 weeks have been the macro/market tailwinds the last few days. To really decouple we need more proof (there seem to be a number of VIN assignments today!!) of X ramp, more media coverage (thanks Phil LeBeau), and more evidence that the model3 demand will be massive.

 

[Papafox]

May I just remind all about the fact that almost all stocks are up, and that TSLA most days follows NASDAQ (multiplied by a factor). I know it's boring, but empirical data is on my side... ;-)

Yes, the broader markets are giving the green light to TSLA, but its performance is above and beyond today. While NASDAQ was up 2.2% today, TSLA was up 8.7%, with Netflix up 6.6% and Amazon up 2.5%. Perhaps the multiples for TSLA are so high right now because it fell so much during January.

In other news, TSLA just hit $170 in after-hours trading.

 

[AlMc]

Yes, the broader markets are giving the green light to TSLA, but its performance is above and beyond today. While NASDAQ was up 2.2% today, TSLA was up 8.7%, with Netflix up 6.6% and Amazon up 2.5%. Perhaps the multiples for TSLA are so high right now because it fell so much during January.

In other news, TSLA just hit $170 in after-hours trading.

Nice. Finally one of my sickly LEAPS turned a very light green today. Picked up 10 170weeklies before close and did finally add back in about 15-20% of my original position today. As usual, if the train does start moving again I will be cautious and sit in the second or third car as no matter when you get on we eventually all will get to the station.

 

[maoing]

Last week, we have many folks (including me) here worried about 120 or even 100 before ER, now we are at 170 :smile:. But TA is broken in big way, so even TSLA briefly touch 180 (177-180 is the resistance) this week, it might well have chance to retest 150-160 again.

 

[AlMc]

I am not sure how much positive glow this will have on TSLA tomorrow but Nvidia nailed ER:Nvidia beats 4Q profit forecasts - Yahoo Finance

 

[geneclean55]

I have been following this thread with great interest over the past few months but this is my first post. I am a strong believer in the future of Tesla and decided to free up some assets which I will be able to execute early next week. Not particularly stock market savvy and am aiming to go long. With that said, any opinions on when/what might be a good entry point in the short term? I would have gone all in a few days back, but now the stock is rising perhaps I should wait a few days for any potential profit taking / fall back in price?

 

[Electrifying]

but now the stock is rising perhaps I should wait a few days for any potential profit taking / fall back in price?

Hmm, if you believe in 5 years TSLA will trade at $1000, what difference does it make? If you don't believe it will be at $1000 within 5 years, you should not buy TSLA. Speaking as someone who bought common stocks at $30, $100, $200, $280, $260, $230, $170. Trading TSLA short term is risky based on my experience losing tens of thousands trading TSLA options within last few years.

 

[geneclean55]

I take your point. I just see myself as buying some stock and seeing where it goes in the next few years. I don't foresee myself adding, or diving into options etc (I guess that could change ha). So on the flip side, if I have the long term view whats the harm in delaying (or advancing) the initial order by a few weeks?

 

[chickensevil]

That was a nice strong close for the day. Holding a nice steady climb all day. Volume was average so this should be a good sign of a turn in sentiment no?

 

[eloder]

Hmm, if you believe in 5 years TSLA will trade at $1000, what difference does it make? If you don't believe it will be at $1000 within 5 years, you should not buy TSLA. Speaking as someone who bought common stocks at $30, $100, $200, $280, $260, $230, $170. Trading TSLA short term is risky based on my experience losing tens of thousands trading TSLA options within last few years.

I personally have some shares dedicated to long term, and some I'm willing to make shorter-term profits off of.

Without these shares, I wouldn't have made any profit from the day I bought in. With them, I've come out pretty handsomely in the past couple years

 

[BornToFly]

I take your point. I just see myself as buying some stock and seeing where it goes in the next few years. I don't foresee myself adding, or diving into options etc (I guess that could change ha). So on the flip side, if I have the long term view whats the harm in delaying (or advancing) the initial order by a few weeks?

If it goes to 300 in the next 6 months, it won't make too much difference if you buy at 160 or 175. You could put a buy order at 165 and see if it executes on a small pullback tomorrow from some people selling and taking profits. If it goes to 180 instead, and keeps climbing, then just buy when you can. I started buying when the stock was at 50, and then just kept adding on pullbacks as Tesla kept proving itself over the last 2.5 years. My average purchase price is around 180, with most of my shares having been purchased in the last 2 years. I think you are lucky to get to buy at these prices with everything Tesla has accomplished and with the stock being more of a "sure thing" than it was in the past.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I have been following this thread with great interest over the past few months but this is my first post. I am a strong believer in the future of Tesla and decided to free up some assets which I will be able to execute early next week. Not particularly stock market savvy and am aiming to go long. With that said, any opinions on when/what might be a good entry point in the short term? I would have gone all in a few days back, but now the stock is rising perhaps I should wait a few days for any potential profit taking / fall back in price?

Split money into 3 equal pots and buy as much as you can for given tranche on 3 next Tuesdays at around 2PM. Feel free to pick your day and time, just perhaps not first 30 minutes of the day. If stock keeps going up, you'll be happy you got one tranche for cheap, if it goes down (still technically broken, but some serious catalysts incoming), you average down. Once you do this, stop looking at the stock price and reading this forum Come back in a year or two, and don't plan getting money for at least 3 years, better yet 5-10...

I'd personally go all in ASAP (I already am), as anything under $200 is silly good buy, but as beginner, this is probably inappropriate for you, loses hurt a lot when you have no investment history.

 

[geneclean55]

Ha...yeah keeping up with the price action and on here can be addicting. I was thinking a 3-year outlook at least as hopefully Model 3 will be making some serious waves by then.

 

[chickensevil]

Ha...yeah keeping up with the price action and on here can be addicting. I was thinking a 3-year outlook at least as hopefully Model 3 will be making some serious waves by then.

I'd be remiss if I didn't caution you to be prepared that if you buy in now there is no guarantee we don't fall lower (even if we seem to be in a recovery stage). Many people shouted up an down that 210 was the bottom, then 200, then 180, and then people stopped trying to call the bottoms and there was a lot of sadness (unless you were short and then there was much rejoicing...)

So while it seems like we should finally be bottomed (especially now that Q4 is past) we could easily go back into a negative macro and a negative news cycle to turn things south again.

That being said, I happily bought in right after the ER and would be buying more if I had the funds. (Hrmmmm if only OptionHouse would make my tax forms available sooner I would get my refund back sooner to give me some more play money!)