Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[austinEV]

From my understanding of the max pain calculation, It just uses the amount of contracts at the end if the day and see ehat price induces the maximun amount of expiration in $$$ terms.

What it doesn't see is when these contracts were created and how much premium decay has already happened. It also doesn't take into account on which side the market makers are on. I've always wanted to write a detailed algorithm to track this, but never had the incentive to do since my strategies are not based on max pain. If I have to coin a term for this enhanced tracking. It'll be called Maximum Retail Pain or Maximum Market Maker Money Making (MmMmM)

I have the theme song for your commercial for you.

 

[justthateasy]

With TSLA down to 211 and looking like we're going to finish this first week of trading at these lows, all I have to say that it's looking like I'm going to have another terrible year financially. TSLA did nothing for me last year and it's carrying over into this year.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I simply cannot believe there will be a relief rally on Monday for the broader market. The playbook has been torn to shreds. Too easy of a play.

 

[theschnell]

Interesting times we're in. I see TSLA rallying some late in the month buying the earnings report rumor, and then selling on the ER news, and then the perfect buying opportunity for calls will be between 4th QTR earnings and the Model 3 unveiling. Buy at least June calls, August possibly better to cover 2 ER's.

With M3 reveal and reservations, X ramp, positive CF, and GF ramp, I still believe 2016 is going to be a great year. I will be picking up something (haven't decided for sure between calls and shares, leaning towards calls) after Q4 earnings report. Hope I'm not too late, but doubt I will be, given our recent history.

 

[FluxCap]

We've just about reached peak TMC bearishness.

 

[theschnell]

We've just about reached peak TMC bearishness.

Have we just about reached peak TSLA bearishness? That is the more important question. And to your point, the correlation is probably very strong.

 

[austinEV]

Interesting times we're in. I see TSLA rallying some late in the month buying the earnings report rumor, and then selling on the ER news, and then the perfect buying opportunity for calls will be between 4th QTR earnings and the Model 3 unveiling. Buy at least June calls, August possibly better to cover 2 ER's.

With M3 reveal and reservations, X ramp, positive CF, and GF ramp, I still believe 2016 is going to be a great year. I will be picking up something (haven't decided for sure between calls and shares, leaning towards calls) after Q4 earnings report. Hope I'm not too late, but doubt I will be, given our recent history.

It is getting increasingly interesting. The more time that passes between now and then the more this spring compresses. I expected a sort of orderly value-up in Q1 then maybe some irrational days around ER's and M3 reveal (good or bad, irrational).

Not saying this will happen, but if we trade in a range, or god forbid *down* as late as Feb, that is a monumental Bear trap.

Keep in mind every day that passes neutral or down compresses that spring. Enough energy in that system and it triggers a short squeeze.

 

[Crowded Mind]

It is getting increasingly interesting. The more time that passes between now and then the more this spring compresses. I expected a sort of orderly value-up in Q1 then maybe some irrational days around ER's and M3 reveal (good or bad, irrational).

Not saying this will happen, but if we trade in a range, or god forbid *down* as late as Feb, that is a monumental Bear trap.

Keep in mind every day that passes neutral or down compresses that spring. Enough energy in that system and it triggers a short squeeze.

Unless shorts wisely use the drops to cover, like seems to be happening with SCTY (though I don't follow SCTY as closely).

 

[austinEV]

Unless shorts wisely use the drops to cover, like seems to be happening with SCTY (though I don't follow SCTY as closely).

Short interest never gets too low. In the money shorts are replaced with new shorts hoping for 180.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think this is the reason for the price action today. Wonder how many times the Apple Car rumor will surprise the market. Just a few months ago TSLA fell like $8 in 5 minutes because of a similar report. Please sell your tesla stock if you are concerned over the Apple Car because it's most likely going to happen.

If there's one thing to remember, it's that there are a lot of stupid entities trading every stock, and a lot of them don't know anything about automobiles, car manufacturers, or car buyers. For normal traders, fear of loss registers 2x as strong as happiness from gain. The inevitable result is that the fear of "Apple Car" causes some panic selling.

A steady upwards trend will only set in if Tesla delivers good financial results. The reason TSLA has been flat since 2014 is that the company has missed guidance in 2014, only met the lower end of lowered guidance in 2015, and suffered stupid and unnecessary delays due to questionable engineering choices for Model X. Things will turn around very quickly if Tesla finally manages to ramp Model X, gets into the 1600-1800 units/week range, and achieves free cash flow. If Tesla can get more revenue and profit from Tesla Energy, this will be icing on the cake.

Until this happens, the stock is going to bounce around the 230 mark, plus or minus tens of $ either way. Keep in mind that from Late 2010 to Early 2013 (a period of roughly 2.5 years), TSLA essentially went nowhere, and traded in the 25-35 $ range. It wasn't until the company delivered solid results in May 2013 that the stock left that plateau. To get off the current plateau and to the next level, the company has got to deliver the goods.

We've just about reached peak TMC bearishness.

I encourage people NOT to throw in the towel at this time. There is no guarantee of what will happen in the next year, but a Model X ramp and shipment of Tesla Energy products has a lot of potential to finally give the stock a real breakout. With Model X deliveries truly under way, it's a real product now, and not the 6 unit "launch" that we saw at the end of September.

Looking further down the line, I hope the jump to the Generation 3 level isn't as irritating, but I think Tesla has learned its lesson with Model X. We'll see in March when Model 3 is revealed.

 

[FredTMC]

Looking forward to earnings call in early Feb. can't come soon enough.

And then Model 3 reveal in March with preorders starting.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Looking forward to earnings call in early Feb. can't come soon enough.

And then Model 3 reveal in March with preorders starting.

My hunch right now is that assuming Tesla can ramp up Model X this quarter, the favorable numbers won't come in until the May earnings call for Q1 '16. Now, February could have some positive impact if Tesla gives out current ramp numbers and the Model X is being built at full tilt. That could possibly give us enough data to project an excellent Q1. A pop in TSLA price could be delayed though, as Tesla's reputation for guidance based on the past 2 years is still not as solid as many would like.

 

[tinm]

I'm amazed some folks would be ok with Apple scooping up TSLA for $40 or $50 billion.

My absolute minimum would be $100 billion.

 

[Thumper]

+1 everything anticitizen said.

 

[mejojo]

I'm amazed some folks would be ok with Apple scooping up TSLA for $40 or $50 billion.

My absolute minimum would be $100 billion.

 

[Todd Burch]

With TSLA down to 211 and looking like we're going to finish this first week of trading at these lows, all I have to say that it's looking like I'm going to have another terrible year financially. TSLA did nothing for me last year and it's carrying over into this year.

We're 8 days into the year and you're already concluding that it's going to be terrible?

All I'll say is that just about now is when Buffett would suggest buying.

 

[dmckinstry]

I'm amazed some folks would be ok with Apple scooping up TSLA for $40 or $50 billion.

My absolute minimum would be $100 billion.

Agreed!

 

[dakh]

I'm amazed some folks would be ok with Apple scooping up TSLA for $40 or $50 billion.

My absolute minimum would be $100 billion.

Yea that's one big reason not to get into way out of the money options. If acquisition happens and it's not at way out there premium, you're screwed.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm amazed some folks would be ok with Apple scooping up TSLA for $40 or $50 billion.

My absolute minimum would be $100 billion.

Ive held my shares since 2012/2013 when I acquired them. I'm not going to sit here and tell anyone that I'm pleased with TSLA or tesla mgmt. It's been a very rough ride over the last year or so. I expected less heartburn especially the multi-year MX launch delays. Do I think TSLA can hit 100B+ market cap in the years ahead? Sure... But if I could get $50B cash out now via acquisition, I'd take it.

Still, I've always maintained the best option for an immediate reset in TSLA valuation would be a multi-billion dollar minority investment in Tesla by an Apple or a Google. In this way EM stays in control and TSLA instantly rockets to a far higher share price.

I have dream...

 

[sundaymorning]

My 40% gain from beginning of the year dropped to about 20%. I don't sweat bullets like many short term traders here and would like to express that my investment strategy remains unaffected by short term price action, despite the roller coaster.. my thesis has always been to go long if you believe in a company's success. And no I would not consider selling at $40 billion when $100 billion is only 4-5 years out. From where I am standing, I can not see a better stock with this type of potential. Call me a cheerleader if you like, but the reality is that if you have found a better investment, then what are you doing here?