Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[TSLAopt]

Why do so many people assume a short squeeze is a black or white event? Different people I suppose use the term 'short squeeze' differently as there is no black and white measurement of what is or is not a short squeeze (other than the fact that some amount of shorts or net-shorts must be covering). I do think this could very well be the beginning of a short squeeze(why couldn't it be?), but it is a GRADUAL SHORT SQUEEZE which could last weeks/months and that a few months from now we will be much much higher than we are now. The short squeeze in 2013 was gradual as well and lasted for months..it didn't go from the 30s to 150+ overnight or even in a few weeks. I think we'd all agree that was a 'short squeeze' in 2013 but if you look at the data, it took months to play out.

AFTER it plays out then we can all listen to the 'technicals' experts tell us the story of what happened and why it was a short squeeze, looking at moving averages, fibonacci changes, head and shoulders, etc. (I personally think 'technicals' are hogwash and will use real data such as the NASDAQ publication to say whether it was a 'short squeeze' or not)
DURING the short squeeze it is not so evident to people, we are all just speculating (including me)

halleluja!!!

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

 

[Muaddid]

Can someone explain to me what this part is about ? Do they use a different type of glass for shows ???

Thank you for the translation. This section interested me:
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Harald Krüger: This is a prototype as you can see from the glass, not a production vehicle. If you look at it exactly, it´s a prototype and not a production vehicle....

 

[demetri]

+1 slow short squeeze from 140 to 208 today.

Anyone know what JB said at the keynote in Canada? Link?

 

[dha]

halleluja!!!

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

This is an ALL TIME HIGH for TSLA short interest. I think we just witnessed the mother of all bear traps.

 

[Johan]

Don´t think they´ll announce it earlier. Is think everyone would have expected a 100 some time - and even now we don´t know for when the update is/was meant. O.k., so now it´s sooner rather than later kind of. Maybe in series with Model 3 reveal, Q1 ER? If it was meant for that soon, wouldn´t make sense to me to make it even sooner. I think such a rumour just adds to the hype anyway, even if it is pretty obvious it´s true.

I wonder why they did already upload those pics to all cars, as my understanding is they have small updates all the time. And after they announce it, they´d still have to build the cars - or not?

Your last paragraph is interesting. I'd assign a very high probability (over 90%) to the inclusion of the P100D data and images in the new firmware to laziness/routine and a low probability (less than 10%) to it being suggestive of them redoing a 40/60 thing (starting to put in 100 packs in 90 cars and then offering a "software" upgrade/unlock for a price). If they did redo a 40/60 "hidden" upgrade though it would be a strategy to mitigate Obourning effects way in to the future: create the story/notion that when you buy a Tesla you'll be getting what you're buying plus possibly whatever new stuff they're working on, and this stuff will be made avail to you later, either free or at a price. Remember they did this with the AP hardware too - some got their cars built with the hardware and some without before it was announced. The deadline/switch in production was never revealed, but can be deduced in retrospect. Those who had AP hardware built in without having ordered it now have "AP" cars while those delivered a week before are "pre AP".

 

[MikeC]

Thank you for the translation. This section interested me:
---------------------------------------------------
Harald Krüger: This is a prototype as you can see from the glass, not a production vehicle. If you look at it exactly, it´s a prototype and not a production vehicle.

Interviewer: But as far as the concept is concerned?

Harald Krüger: No comment.

Interviewer: No comment - oh well. It is the product of the competition, after all.

Jochen Rudat: Appreciation looks differently.
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I don't understand what Rudat meant by that phrase.

But I think Kruger's comment about it being a prototype was very rude, and inaccurate. And then he refused to say anything when asked for a comment. It never hurts to be nice.

Was he implying that it was a concept car because of the windshield? Funny, BMW can't even conceive that Tesla's innovations could be ready for production. He must have hit his head because he is so used to keeping it in the sand, where it's safe and he doesn't have to see his X5 sales plummeting.

- - - Updated - - -

+1 slow short squeeze from 140 to 208 today.

Anyone know what JB said at the keynote in Canada? Link?

Actually, the close was at $179.00 at the time of that short interest number. It means shorts actually piled in from 140 to at least 179. Oops.

 

[Johan]

Was he implying that it was a concept car because of the windshield? Funny, BMW can't even conceive that Tesla's innovations could be ready for production. He must have hit his head because he is so used to keeping it in the sand, where it's safe and he doesn't have to see his X5 sales plummeting.

One way to look at it is that Krüger and the BMW team know the X very intimately: enough to be able to tell after seeing the windshield that the particular vehicle they are examining is a prototype and not a production car (because they have a very early production car in their lab being torn down meticulously after having been run through every test conceivable). Likely Krüger has even driven that car on several occasions (in their testing facility, not publicly of course).

 

[CyberDutchie]

MAcro headwinds can certainly recur at any time but absent those I see evidence of X ramp, model 3 reveal and reservations as being positive catalysts moving into March 31st. Now, if we get another 5-10% run up I can't rule out 'sell the news' effect, especially if there is any issue with Q1 delivery numbers. (I doubt)

Sell the news on Model 3 reveal? Why would there be? I can see anticipation of sales, margin, FCF, etc. being talked up prior to earnings creating too high expectations triggering a sell the news event. But Model 3 reveal event, no, just don't see why there would be a sell-off.

 

[MikeC]

Sell the news on Model 3 reveal? Why would there be? I can see anticipation of sales, margin, FCF, etc. being talked up prior to earnings creating too high expectations triggering a sell the news event. But Model 3 reveal event, no, just don't see why there would be a sell-off.

Another thing preventing an immediate sell off would be delivery numbers being reported a couple days later.

 

[austinEV]

+1 slow short squeeze from 140 to 208 today.

No. TSLA has followed the general market, end of story. If TSLA is having a short squeeze, so is NFLX for some reason:

This is a GOOD thing. If you suspect shorts will be caught, pants down, it has yet to happen.

Johnson Research says on Microsoft Money app that $210 will be a major hurdle. They suggest a retreat to $140. I'm long long TSLA as regulars know. What do you all think of their analysis?

210 makes no sense. 230 (200day MA) would be the resistance. 210 has never been a noteworthy support level.

 

[CyberDutchie]

This is an ALL TIME HIGH for TSLA short interest. I think we just witnessed the mother of all bear traps.

All time high, also if you consider the shares outstanding?

 

[hobbes]

Thank you for the translation. This section interested me:
---------------------------------------------------
Harald Krüger: This is a prototype as you can see from the glass, not a production vehicle. If you look at it exactly, it´s a prototype and not a production vehicle.

Interviewer: But as far as the concept is concerned?

Harald Krüger: No comment.

Interviewer: No comment - oh well. It is the product of the competition, after all.

Jochen Rudat: Appreciation looks differently.
-----------------------------------------------
I don't understand what Rudat meant by that phrase.

But I think Kruger's comment about it being a prototype was very rude, and inaccurate. And then he refused to say anything when asked for a comment. It never hurts to be nice.

Maybe my translation wasn´t so good. Would "That´s not how you´d express your appreciation." make more sense?
Or is it the word "appreciation" the problem - is "recognition" a better translation for "Wertschätzung"? To put it simple, the Tesla guy had expected something nicer, like "nice job, but wait a few years".

 

[CyberDutchie]

He must have hit his head because he is so used to keeping it in the sand, where it's safe and he doesn't have to see his X5 sales plummeting.

Lol :biggrin:

 

[dha]

All time high, also if you consider the shares outstanding?

Not sure. The previous high I see is 32,316,654 shares on 3/15/2013. Any idea how many shares were outstanding then?

 

[CyberDutchie]

Not sure. The previous high I see is 32,316,654 shares on 3/15/2013. Any idea how many shares were outstanding then?

About 115M, according to this YCharts chart:

Tesla Motors Shares Outstanding (TSLA)

 

[DaveT]

halleluja!!!

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

Wow.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Is this a TECHNICAL analysis driven or VALUE driven prediction? Your writing suggest it could be based on (purely) technicals? If so you believe or not - that's the nature of TA.

That is the nature of any type of prediction, technical or otherwise. I remember plenty who dismissed any chance of the stock going below 200 recently(bulls), and plenty who even more vehemently dismissed any chance that it would go above 40 before(bears). Both groups justifying their views with fundamental catalysts and value of the company.(many cases using the same metrics!)

The conclusion is not that fundamental analysis itself should either be believed or disbelieved, but rather the value lies in the interpreters. The same is the case for technicals.

 

[hobbes]

Was he implying that it was a concept car because of the windshield? Funny, BMW can't even conceive that Tesla's innovations could be ready for production. He must have hit his head because he is so used to keeping it in the sand, where it's safe and he doesn't have to see his X5 sales plummeting.

Don´t know. He used the words "prototype" and "glass". If he really wasn´t aware the the X is shipping like this, you might be right. But someone in his position? Could only imagine he is so annoyed with Tesla he told his guys - "Don´t want to hear about it any more!" And now doesn´t know what is happing, cars that would be concept cars at BMW at the moment being shipped by thousands in the US. I guess total denial, head in the sand describes it well.

Or he just didn´t know what else to say. Seemed he didn´t recognize the Tesla guy and was completely caught off guard when he was discovered, which would be surprising also.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Wow.

Dave, when do you expect the real squeeze to start?

Btw. If you care to share, just wanted to get to my 1,000th post :wink:

 

[AlMc]

Sell the news on Model 3 reveal? Why would there be? I can see anticipation of sales, margin, FCF, etc. being talked up prior to earnings creating too high expectations triggering a sell the news event. But Model 3 reveal event, no, just don't see why there would be a sell-off.

Yep. My current 'short term' plan IF we get a >10% run up is to sell my shorter term calls..June 180s and take profit. If you are correct then I will miss out on some short term money and let my Leaps, which are green again catch that scenario.
While I think it unlikely that we get mediocre delivery numbers a day or so after the reveal...we might. That could be one final bear stand.