Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Tenable]

OK, bye.

Say HI to Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, John Cornyn, "W", Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, etc. and thank them for all their support of Tesla Motors!

While I also watch television and understand that Texas is not the most progressive place in the world, Texas is a large market for Tesla. Beyond the state itself, Dallas specifically is a significant Tesla market. I have a couple owners in my highrise and when going out to dinner, seeing a couple other Teslas parked at restaurants is not an uncommon sight.

While I appreciate perspectives that differ from my own, one based on a foundation of bigotry without any facts to support it.. well I don't think it offers a contribution that anyone benefits from.

BTW here is an article stating Texas is Tesla's third largest US market.
California Leads Nation In Tesla Model S Sales, But Which Other States Are In Top 10?

 

[Tenable]

Disclaimer: I don't typically watch after hours activity.. so if this is normal, I apologize in advance. There have been quite a few larger after hours trades over 1000 shares including one for 13,121 shares at a strike of 232.7365. Not certain what this is indicative of. But speculating its positive.. also, I'm prone to want to believe that everything is positive.

 

[Fallenone]

Disclaimer: I don't typically watch after hours activity.. so if this is normal, I apologize in advance. There have been quite a few larger after hours trades over 1000 shares including one for 13,121 shares at a strike of 232.7365. Not certain what this is indicative of. But speculating its positive.. also, I'm prone to want to believe that everything is positive.

Unless there's ER or material news announced after hours with the stock traded with significant volume, after hours movements don't mean much. 13k is not significant for a stock with a daily volume on the level of 4,5 million.

 

[Curt Renz]

Disclaimer: I don't typically watch after hours activity.. so if this is normal, I apologize in advance. There have been quite a few larger after hours trades over 1000 shares including one for 13,121 shares at a strike of 232.7365. Not certain what this is indicative of. But speculating its positive.. also, I'm prone to want to believe that everything is positive.

This is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of major stock index futures, stock index options and individual stock options. Some after hours stock trades would involve buying or selling shares to satisfy those who exercised options that expired today.

 

[hobbes]

This is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of major stock index futures, stock index options and individual stock options. Some after hours stock trades would involve buying or selling shares to satisfy those who exercised options that expired today.

Interesting to note that today´s max pain was at $210 but it didn´t seem like market makers tried to push the share price down. It doesn´t look like volume was all that high, so they should have had a chance. Can we learn something from that?

 

[Papafox]

Is this after hours trading odd? The drop after hours seems unusually large and coincidentally puts us back at the beginning of the day.

Thumper, on Fridays (option expiration day) there's some type of correction that takes place right after close and then the after-hours trading returns to normal a minute or two later.

 

[AlMc]

I did not expect the "D" or the Model X "launch" events to spike TSLA and going back further in history I actually called a price drop on the battery swap unveil - but my gut is yelling at me that there is over-caution around here regards price action surrounding the Model 3 launch.

Anyone got a good handle on deliveries - because if that is a beat that will be announced to coincide with recommencement of trading after the unveil too in addition to a media frenzy about lines around the block for M3 reservations.

I think the market will play an April fools prank on the sage and the sober that are banking on a sell on the news to the point of feeling like calling it. This stock is heavily oversold by a contingent begging the stars for flubbed unveil - and then out rolls the aluminum bodied beaut with insane cabin tech and performance stats. This ain't going to be a pretty sight for the shorts.

I have no handle on the deliveries for Q1. By all accounts the X ramp seems to finally be significant and TM is doing the usual ( and I support it )...local deliveries are pushed in the last couple weeks of the quarter.my 'gut' tells me they deliver 16k. This would be my 'neutral' number when it comes to effect on TSLA.
I also have no idea...but does anybody really....if this is buy on the rumor/sell on the news event with model3. I have taken money off the table with short term options today. If we get a dip (doubtful) into the reveal I may put some money back into calls. I like Fallenone's idea of a 'lotto ticket' $270. If we get a run up to the event I will do a strangle.

 

[Curt Renz]

Interesting to note that today´s max pain was at $210 but it didn´t seem like market makers tried to push the share price down. It doesn´t look like volume was all that high, so they should have had a chance. Can we learn something from that?

When the current price is far from the Max Pain price, manipulators are not going to be able to push them together. The best they can do is try to push the price toward a strike near the current price such as $232.50 today. Even that is harder to accomplish during a quarterly options expiration when volumes are usually above average. I suspect that the relatively modest gyrations during the final hour today had more to do with the stock index funds and futures that include TSLA, rather than any TSLA specific Max Pain manipulations.

 

[Intl Professor]

Tesla Bears Fear This Metric | OilPrice.com

snip

Say ther, how'd you like to invest in your own gigafactory? It's like an oil field that will play out 10 billion barrels of oil over 25 years. What'd that be worth to ya?

You think like Boone Pickens in drag .

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla employees began reserving their Model 3s last night, sight unseen

This article makes a few important points but misses a few major ones. ~15,000 employees. How many Tesla employees are married? How many Tesla employees have children? Do relatives/children/friends of Tesla employees qualify to make an early deposit? Are Tesla employees able to make more than 1 early deposit?

Also, don't forget the ~5,000 SpaceX employees and ~13,000 SolarCity employees.

 

[dc_h]

I can think of few potential concerns before the May ER:
1. Model 3 does not turn out to be great, or reservation numbers are not announced (meaning, not great).
2. Q1 delivery miss.
3. Low Model X delivery numbers : I think, Model X is now already seeing demand slow down significantly. Some reported new CA orders produced within days. Take a look at this Founder series MX on ebay. Highest bid only $101K.
Tesla: Model X P90D FOUNDERS EDITION
4. Investors taking profits, selling out the news of Model 3 launch.
5. Media focus turned back on negative news from positive euphoria over Model 3.
6. And of course, the macro sentiment going negative. It's not just Tesla. Whole market has come back swinging in the last few weeks.

They say most people underestimate negative risks and overestimate positive opportunities. Appreciate your balance. I know you've been here a while and sometimes get grief as a bear. I see you more as a concerned bull.

Regarding deliveries, that is the risk that is or was in Tesla's control. The Model S delivery site has a fairly tight bell curve from 120,000 to 133,000 thousand. There are some deliveries around 110,000 and a few sales over 134,000. I see the tighter than normal distribution due to the big push in Q4. There was very little carry over inventory end of year. The numbers imply deliveries of the S are optimistically around 13,000 unless there has been some inventory sales.
Regarding Model X, they had about 1200 Sig's to deliver. These appear to be about done, with a few possible exceptions. Figure 1100 Sigs delivered. Production didn't start in more than a trickle until mid February. When no VIN's were assigned, I wondered if they had moved desk jockeys out to do some of the manual QC work--still wondering. Anyhow, late February the dam started leaking (not bursting) and we started getting VIN's assigned and reports of deliveries ahead of erstwhile Sig owners. Early March all deliveries seemed to focus on expedited deliveries in California, Oregon and Washington State. Based on VIN's, they may be on track to produce 3000 production Model X's. Hitting 3000 seems optimistic, but there are two weeks left and they do have more people for a Q end push than in the past.
Looking at the Model S tracker and the Model X forums hitting 16,000 is going to be interesting. Sales of floor models and loaners seemed to have also been part of the Q4 push. If anyone has data, maybe Tesla sold more stock in Q1.

Getting a better understanding of Q1 deliveries would be a great weekend thread. If maoing or anyone has any China data, and Europe deliveries are still up in the air.

 

[esk8mw]

I can think of few potential concerns before the May ER:
1. Model 3 does not turn out to be great, or reservation numbers are not announced (meaning, not great).
2. Q1 delivery miss.
3. Low Model X delivery numbers : I think, Model X is now already seeing demand slow down significantly. Some reported new CA orders produced within days. Take a look at this Founder series MX on ebay. Highest bid only $101K.
Tesla: Model X P90D FOUNDERS EDITION
4. Investors taking profits, selling out the news of Model 3 launch.
5. Media focus turned back on negative news from positive euphoria over Model 3.
6. And of course, the macro sentiment going negative. It's not just Tesla. Whole market has come back swinging in the last few weeks.

Production is slow: "Model X is an unbuildable mistake!"
Production speeds up: "Model X demand is falling significantly; new orders are being produced quickly!"

 

[Fallenone]

Tesla employees began reserving their Model 3s last night, sight unseen

This article makes a few important points but misses a few major ones. ~15,000 employees. How many Tesla employees are married? How many Tesla employees have children? Do relatives/children/friends of Tesla employees qualify to make an early deposit? Are Tesla employees able to make more than 1 early deposit?

Also, don't forget the ~5,000 SpaceX employees and ~13,000 SolarCity employees.

I doubt employee priority reservation can be extended to family members, let alone friends and employee from Space X and SCTY. Also, we don't want to see that many reservations made by people related with the company do we? The point of Model 3 is to address a much wider audience.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

For those not actively following the Model 3 forum:

The reveal event is scheduled for 7PM Pacific on 3/31 (expect "Axl Rose" to take the stage late).
There will be drivable prototype(s), according to invite emails sent to members of the press.

This means that we will at a minimum get to see both the exterior and the interior of Model 3. I expect that the interior will not be final, sort of along the same lines as the Model S and Model X prototypes.

Effect on TSLA: indeterminate. There are too many factors at play here: people taking profits on news, exterior design, press coverage/reaction, reservation totals, specifications, unknowns.

I would not trade on the reveal event.

 

[Bgarret]

What? There's a horizon beyond 2020? Very nice point.

China has the aim to produce 5 million cumulatively by 2020. So this is in range of 1.5 million in 2020. I'd like to see Tesla try to keep up with China. So 0.5 million in 2020 is not nearly enough.

For you and Julian...and many others that see 500k by 2020 as the floor rather than an unobtainable ceiling.

Tesla Could Sell a Million Vehicles Per Year by 2020 | ARK

I met with these guys today, a disruptive technology ETF - one of the few looking at the top down and addressable market and take Elon's 500k projection as conservative.

I posted a thread on subsidies and hope others will add to it. Battery technology should be on par with ICE costs in about 2020, but incentives in China, Europe, the U.S. and in cities like Beijing and London make electric more cost effective TODAY than ICE...by a mile.

 

[Bgarret]

I was having this discussion with Intl Professor....thought some of you might enjoy the source material.

http://www.uctc.net/access/30/Access 30 - 02 - Horse Power.pdf

it took 2000+ years for the internal combustion engine to disrupt equine transportation. Julius Ceasar banned horse-drawn carts in Rome between dawn and dusk. There will be, in my children's lifetime, a ban or limitation on internal combustion engines. In the next 20-30 years, electric cars and autonomous driving will transplant ICE vehicles and human drivers just as the Model T made the horse a toy for dilettantes. Electric cars will soon win on cost, safety, the environment, performance, comfort, aesthetics, social perception.

 

[erha]

We are up 62 % since Feb. 11. now. That is one amazing run. I don't think it is a bad idea to take some profits at this time. I'm greedy and will be waiting until we get closer to the Model 3 launch. I might regret that decision though.

I'm sorry to go against the bull sentiment here now, but I don't think we will see 1 mill. reservations as some members here think is likely. It's hard to predict the amount of reservations, but I think 50 000 is closer than 1 mill. to the reality for the upcoming months. I honestly can't imagine lines outside stores either. Remember, the product is still two years out. This is not like a new iPhone where you get in line and a couple of hours later you hold it in your hand while you show it off to your friends.

(Quick calculation: Let's say half of the reservations are from the US. There are 130 million households in the US (~320 mill people/2.5 people per household). In order to reach 500 000 reservations in the US, that means every 260th household has to make a reservation. I think this is unrealistic high. I'm just guessing here, but if every 2500th household puts in a reservation that is 52 000 reservations in the US. This seems more reasonable.)

And even if reservations turn out to be far above my expectations, I still think the financial results are more important for the stock price. Q1 deliveries, cash flow and earnings are far more important in the short term.

I really hope I'm wrong, and I'm super excited to see how far they've come with the Model 3.

Oh, and a last note: I think something we haven't talked enough about lately is all the changes in the factory. Tesla has been really quite about this. I think they even mentioned it in an earnings call that they didn't want to give any information about factory upgrades in the future. Anyhow, the analysts that have visited the factory seem to be really impressed, and I think the slow ramp of the Model X is related to huge improvements in the factory.

 

[Thumper]

Sorry I posted about the after hours price earlier. Half and hour after close, Microsoft Money was showing the after hours price down exactly the rise for the day. I should just go back to lurking.

 

[mmd]

dc_h,
I will be interested to see the bell curve of S delivery you talk about. What are you plotting? Is there a link or something?

I was expecting Jan/Feb to be 60% up yoy, since 2015 Q1 was 10K deliveries, and this time we need 16K.
The Jan-Feb CVRP numbers are lower than Oct-Nov, and Q4 of 2015 was also heavily backend loaded (748 in Oct + 678 in Nov + 1750 in Dec = 3176 in Q4 2016). In Q4 of 2016, Denmark helped out with 2000 cars, which can be ignored for Q1.
I'm hoping, CVRP stats get updated once more before March 31st so we will know better.

PS: As I said before, over $230 makes me bearish

 

[Ukland Wombat]

I doubt employee priority reservation can be extended to family members, let alone friends and employee from Space X and SCTY. Also, we don't want to see that many reservations made by people related with the company do we? The point of Model 3 is to address a much wider audience.

(my bolding)...I don't think it matters to address a wider audience early on. Jhm said upthread that he see more value to Tesla a few years down the road if more conquest sales than loyalty sales are made in the short term. I disagree.

To me, it seems cars distribute themselves very effectively in the whole populated landscape. It does not matter whether a Tesla employee or a newly acquired customer is at the wheel. Cars get around. And they are a fashion item. They get noticed. They sell on their merits. Since FB, I'm told, there are only about 4 degrees of separation between any two people on the planet. How will Teslas not get noticed?

Customers will offer themselves up for "conquest" voluntarily. IMO, there will be no struggle to acquire customers. Quite the opposite, I think, as long as Teslas stay at least as good as other EV 200+ milers.

And in contrast to jhm's point made a day or two ago that after 2020 when other Automakers have many of their own EV 200+ milers in the dealers lot, I can't imagine that the fervour of customers to offer themselves for "acquisition" by Tesla will be diminished.

By 2020, it will be the ICE manufactures who will be struggling, no matter what the price of gasoline, such will be the effect of the superior EV meme diffusing into human consciousnesses everywhere.

By then all EV brands will enjoy being supply-constrained for lack of battery capacity. The winners will be the ones with their captive battery pack supply line.

As a little personal anecdote, I've been reading all things Musk since 2012 and been a TSLA shareholder since 2013, so you would expect me (of all people in my neck of the woods) to notice a Tesla, if one happened to cross my path.

Have I ever seen a Tesla in the flesh?

No! Never!

Ok, I live in the SW corner of England which isn't exactly on the way anywhere. At least my daughter sat in one displayed at an airport somewhere, and my son drove one in Sweden.

But the point of this little personal datapoint is to say that the UK is not Norway or California ...at least not yet.

But it will be because the EV value proposition is so much better in Europe than the US (gasoline here 2 or 3 times what you guys pay)...even more so once autonomous vehicles are permitted on our roads because parking here is such a hassle. Why not just get picked up by a car-bot, instead of trying to find a place to park one of your own anywhere within a 10 minute walk of where you want it to take you?

End of rant...sorry to put it here...it's just that I read this thread most of the time.