Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[BriansTesla]

Well, I am sorry that I got some dislikes here, just to show you that I read the responses.

I have noticed lately, though, it seems especially when the stock goes up, that some folk take it as a responsibility to tell "both sides of the story". If one side is that a car that costs over $100K should be perfect, well, I wished to put forth the other side. No, you can't expect that. Would it help if I put a smiley face after that?

I really get tired of hearing "For 100K they deserve a perfect car" and "There is no excuse for these problems" Do people really think that if you buy a $25,000 car you should expect lots of problems but if you pay $100K it should be more perfect? It doesn't work that way. Tesla is building cars with features that have never been seen before.

It is EASY to discover defects and requires no talent or imagination and very little intelligence. I most respect those who appreciate fantastic engineering and are patient enough to let Tesla demonstrate their good intentions and their ability to correct issues.

 

[dc_h]

Unfortunately it's all about the clicks and money. Apparently talking about Tesla gets you that...

How about a couple people hook up with Julian and set up a research company. Cox Research Group.

It would be interesting if it would get picked up.

 

[Curt Renz]

This is what showed up in my brokerage's quotes system when $TSLA took a little toe dipping the last few hours today. (Since I'm new to trading March 11, it was interesting to see the cost of a decade old used ICE MB model S evaporate from my pond in 1 hour, unlike the rest of the week when I was already up the cost of a new Model 3.)

Social data is turning against Tesla

Here's how I see it: these people wrote about "Tesla Model 3", and found out they have to wait til March 31, 2016 for the next step. So, they don't talk about it any more until March 31. So, a downturn in stats is as much of an indicator of highly interested people waiting for the announcement as it is people who want to actively discuss it. It could even be a sign of increased interest to not discuss it during this impending announcement.

Like a crowd gathered at stadium, hushed in anticipation: This article is interpreting a hushed crowd as an uninterested crowd. But it could be an attentive crowd.

In addition, lots of Model X owners-to-be were waiting for their car to show up, so there was plenty of "where is it?" discussion. As soon as Interstate 5 in California started filling up with truck carriers loaded with Model X's in transit, the "where is it?" discussion almost evaporated.

That is a quite reasonable explanation for an apparent??? slowdown in social media discussion of the Model 3. Now folks have a date for when a prototype will be revealed, and how they can make a reservation. They no longer have to ask each other questions about those two concerns. Now it's a matter of wait and see. The Likefolio guys don't seem to appreciate that the manner in which Tesla reveals information is different from other companies. They may not have seen Elon's twitter picture with the violin.

The Likefolio hosts indicated that they read today's ludicrous Devonshire Research Group report and seem to have accepted it as reasonable support for their now bearish thesis. Before referencing that pretentious upstart group, they should have researched who the group might be and what is their true purpose. A trap was set and the Likefolio people appear to have been caught.

 

[Bgarret]

To just bring some perspective here, if average of 300 reservations per Tesla store for a total of 63K reservations materializes on March 31, that would be three (!) years worth of the maximum production planned by GM for Bolt - on the opening day for Model 3 reservations.

And to layer on more perspective, or guesswork, or...projections:

12,000 + employee
+
63,000 In-store @300/store
+
25,000+ from existing owners (not a lot of reason for X/S/Roadster to go to the store now)
=

100,000 base + "new" online reservations.

Would be nice to crest 6 figures the first 24 hours then to get a little crazy from there.

May be complete hopium, but it would be nice to start a thread that has real-time reports from stores TMCers visit on the 31st - our own guerilla channel checks. Can't expect Trip Chowdrhy to be outside every store with binoculars on the 31st.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

on topics: April capital raise. Roll out of GFs. Urgent or not?

Thanks for weighing in here
Really appreciate it.

It would be no problem to do a raise today or April but that is not the point.

They have money in the bank. They have a $billion facility, they have three giant product lines pumping cash inwards instead of two out of those three pumping cash outwards for development and consumers the world over are about to give them a half $billion interest free loan in $1000 chunks at a reasonable guess coincident with the thin end of The Model 3 pre-production spend.

They just basically guided to the better part of a year of solid operations without doing a raise and credibility is at issue. The very last thing you would want to do if you were Musk at this juncture is to hand out a dilutive bunch of voting stock with a post it note attached that says bears get the last laugh you really can't trust guidance! That is the only possible relief on the cards for the shorts and the kind of thing idiots like TFTF, Montana Skeptic and Mark Spiegel salivate over ceaselessly.

The kind of short squeeze that is on the cards now will roll all year too, there is no panic to grab at it while it's hot and come Q2 ER in Q3 the world will be gagging to throw money after Tesla - that's the time to get happy about a fundraiser for a whole new set of reasons than were generally visible on Q1 ER and with management credibility restored to an ATH.

I like your way with words, Julian. Also, your comments above have probably shown the right way to think on the matter of a capital raise this year. I must admit, I hadn't given much thought to the credibility issues.

You leave me very little ground to stand on. I'm still standing though...but only just!

Let me gently circle back to the impetus that might exist for doing a capital raise in April (if the market obliges).

Ridiculous reservation numbers for M3 within a few days of the reveal portend a reservations' backlog which will be very much greater than ridiculous at the moment when the very first M3 is delivered to its customer, in about 2 years.

Take it out another two years by which time a mere 200k (ramp in year 1) +500k (in year 2) = 700k M3 altogether are likely dispersed into all Tesla markets. By then, just about every potential customer for any mid-priced sedan of any brand of any OEM in any market where Tesla is visible will surely place an order for a M3 (or other mid-priced offering from Tesla).

It will be such good value. Too good to pass up. How could anyone not order one? Demand like that must amount to several million per year. And that's only about 4 years from today.

Fremont +GF1 should produce at least 500k per year, potential for more perhaps. Either way that might be no more than 25% of demand (WAG). Fremont + GF1 just won't cut it.

Yikes! I don't want Tesla leaving truckloads of cash on the table.

What a waste, if that happens...to have engendered such enormous demand for your product and then to have squandered three quarters of the revenue opportunity which is staring you in the face. Please Tesla, make it not happen that way.

But I'm worrying that it will happen that way if a few more GFs are not started immediately.

In my crude way of thinking I imagine a GF takes about twice as long as an auto factory to bring up from the get-go to full production. (I'm sure you can correct me here...please do.) If I'm anywhere near correct, auto production capacity will be choked off for lack of GFs, unless we get one or two up to full speed 3 years from today. Is that even possible?

There's been no ground breaking on GF2 yet, unless it's been a secret project somewhere with a misleading sign at the gate.

I believe that the impetus to start to roll out GFs is already very strong, and it will only be getting stronger by the day, as the M3 reservations tally is seen to grow.

My head has come around to agreeing with you, better to raise capital on a strong more credible base later in the year.

However my gut is still telling me that Tesla needs to kick its growth into a much higher gear, and the sooner the better.

March 31 will be a watershed. A few days later, IMO, perceptions of this company are going to be completely recalibrated in so many minds. It will be fascinating to see what unfolds, and how Musk navigates.

 

[AlMc]

Cap Raise issue: IMO, TM does a Cap Raise in one of three time frames

1. Model 3 reservations off the hook and 2-3 days later they announce deliver of 17K in Q1 ( extrapolation from there to Q1 FCF+)
***Early/Mid April***

2. Q1ER shows FCF+ (a little) with great CC Early May

3. Q2ER is FCF+: Early August

Any of these scenarios push share price to a minimum of $260+ ( A big + if a nice short squeeze ensues)

Build Quality/expectations on the X: WE can start the whole discussion again about the wisdom of adding so much innovation into a the second vehicle that a manufacturer produces..even EM has said it appears to be a 'mistake' (my word, not his). IF, you are going to do it...and delay it...and delay it....it should come out with less fit and finish issues/software glitches/seat motor problems than are being reported regardless of the cost of the vehicle.

 

[Xpert]

This is what showed up in my brokerage's quotes system when $TSLA took a little toe dipping the last few hours today. (Since I'm new to trading March 11, it was interesting to see the cost of a decade old used ICE MB model S evaporate from my pond in 1 hour, unlike the rest of the week when I was already up the cost of a new Model 3.)

Social data is turning against Tesla

Here's how I see it: these people wrote about "Tesla Model 3", and found out they have to wait til March 31, 2016 for the next step. So, they don't talk about it any more until March 31. So, a downturn in stats is as much of an indicator of highly interested people waiting for the announcement as it is people who want to actively discuss it. It could even be a sign of increased interest to not discuss it during this impending announcement.

Like a crowd gathered at stadium, hushed in anticipation: This article is interpreting a hushed crowd as an uninterested crowd. But it could be an attentive crowd.

In addition, lots of Model X owners-to-be were waiting for their car to show up, so there was plenty of "where is it?" discussion. As soon as Interstate 5 in California started filling up with truck carriers loaded with Model X's in transit, the "where is it?" discussion almost evaporated.

Not sure what the article is talking about. Yesterday there were 56,000 peole talking about model 3 reservation on facebook alone.

 

[Fallenone]

I am in the Phoenix area and I am planning to be one of those hundreds of people that will be at the Scottsdale store. How early is everyone planning to be at their local store?

I encourage you and others to participate in this spreadsheet survey if haven't already.

Let's do a spreadsheet for the 31st!

 

[EinSV]

Cap Raise issue: IMO, TM does a Cap Raise in one of three time frames

1. Model 3 reservations off the hook and 2-3 days later they announce deliver of 17K in Q1 ( extrapolation from there to Q1 FCF+)
***Early/Mid April***

2. Q1ER shows FCF+ (a little) with great CC Early May

3. Q2ER is FCF+: Early August

Any of these scenarios push share price to a minimum of $260+ ( A big + if a nice short squeeze ensues)

Build Quality/expectations on the X: WE can start the whole discussion again about the wisdom of adding so much innovation into a the second vehicle that a manufacturer produces..even EM has said it appears to be a 'mistake' (my word, not his). IF, you are going to do it...and delay it...and delay it....it should come out with less fit and finish issues/software glitches/seat motor problems than are being reported regardless of the cost of the vehicle.

Not to do a cap raise in second half of 2016 would be, well, crazy. Not only are Model 3 reservations going to demand it, but all the excitement around the Model 3 launch seems to have clouded over the fact that close on the heels of Model 3 will be Model Y, which could easily double the volume on the same platform.

First rule of Model Y is you do not talk about Model Y?

 

[Julian Cox]

@Julian: Model X issues: In one post you extol the virtues of having elite engineers and in another you indicate that we should have expected some 'issues' with the initial Xs. You can try, but IMO, you can't have it both ways.

Well actually I wasn't being a hypocrite.

Explanation:

It is entirely possible to calculate the mechanical properties of an engineering structure - like a door with two hinges made out of known materials with known properties. This is not subject to superstition.

I don't know that I said you should expect issues with the early Model X but this is not just an engineering item it is also a human collaboration to achieve something new - and until it is achieved it is unprecedented. If it was just another Mercedes then you can expect Mercedes to meet an implied warranty of initial build quality for which they are charging you top dollar when compared with loads of other cars that can do the same job in exactly the same way with the notion of "Mercedes quality" as the primary differentiator of value. If Mercedes serve you a lemon then by all means you definitely didn't get what you paid for.

Tesla on the other hand is charging top-dollar for the Model X, not for a guarantee of Mercedes-like initial build quality for the fist units out of the gate but for the first ever human achievement of a high performance production electric SUV - something that Mercedes is entirely incapable of offering at any build standard. If it took Tesla a couple of months to bring initial units up to scratch and dial in consistent Mercedes-like build quality on the line - well maybe that is not the most compelling reason to go ape about it. It really is not like anyone else could have done any better.

Anecdote: You know - I have traveled long haul, First Class a really lot with many airlines. Singapore, Lufthansa, Emirates, Qatar, Malaysian, Air China, Korean, British, Thai, United (although that doesn't really count) and Virgin Upper Class - which is actually great. I have gotten it down to an art to go from the airport eight or more hours of time-zone away, direct to a meeting clean and sharp ready to nail a negotiation or sort out a factory with a bunch of guys that would really rather I had turned up jet-lagged and on occasion were possibly counting on it. On embarking I immediately request a set of pajamas and change in the bathroom while the plane is still on the ground and no-one else interested in using it. I hand over my suit and shirt to be hung in the closet and set my watch to the new time zone. On takeoff I'd take a light meal, lay the seat flat and just go to sleep throughout the destination's night time - at all times appreciating the absolute privilege and absolute obligation to my team and all of their families to bring home the deal or take it to the next level while grateful to be experiencing something most people on Earth never will, that plus appreciating the miracle of how far we have come since Columbus got on a boat to America. That would always come to mind, every time the wheels left the ground. Once in a while, not often granted, a couple of folk would get on board with the attitude that they had bought the right to get their money's worth by running the crew ragged with requests and to knock back bottles of complementary Champagne to the point of getting silly. Of course they had bought that right and so had I, but I also think they somehow missed the whole point - almost like there is something intangible between the ability to pay for something in hard-earned cash and the ability to appreciate that it remains more of a privilege than a right to be in that position even so. I could be all wrong, but that is how I feel about it. I guess when Lufthansa managed to miss a connection with my set of elite-priority luggage I was actually above averagely livid about it on the basis of expecting way better given that their price to get that one simple act right was sufficient to feed a third world village for a year, so I guess I'm no saint either.

 

[Xpert]

Social data is turning against Tesla[/URL]

.

I looked into these likefolio guys, what a waste of 30 minutes. Its a crappy unkown app with 4 reviews (presumably their own's), trying to get people to sign up for TD Ameritrade. Its ironic that Apple stock actually went up around 10% while their social media data was declining sharply last few months. So that could means TSLA has at least 10% more to run. Bunch of idiots craving for referral clicks.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Openheimer issues Stationary Energy Storage report in which Colin Rusch argues that battery energy storage is coming to an inflection point within next 24 month, after which growth will exceed expectations, not unlike similar pattern played out for Solar and Wind.

Openheimer recommending buying Tesla Motors, Johnson Controls and Ideal Power to capitalize on the expected growth in stationary energy storage

 

[Ulmo]

To just bring some perspective here, if average of 300 reservations per Tesla store for a total of 63K reservations materializes on March 31, that would be three (!) years worth of the maximum production planned by GM for Bolt - on the opening day for Model 3 reservations.

Even 20,000 opening day reservations would be quite good.

 

[Ulmo]

what a waste of 30 minutes.

Sorry!

 

[Tenable]

I'm showing TSLA down $1.09 premarket. Is everyone else seeing the same thing?

 

[GoTslaGo]

17,000 reservations already for Model 3 according to this reddit thread:
Just heard from a Tesla employee that there are 17,000 model 3 reservations already (from Tesla employees) • /r/teslamotors

If true, build quality should be great.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm showing TSLA down $1.09 premarket. Is everyone else seeing the same thing?

After-hours Tuesday, yes...

Pre market for Wednesday hasn't started yet.

 

[FredTMC]

If true, build quality should be great.

Ha ha ha Thanks actually really cool

Imagine some worker on the line saying "yo, this is MY Model 3 rolling along the assembly line right now".

 

[cheshire cat]

this is post 853? + or - and two thirds approx' (I'm not sad enough to count) has little to do with share price and is clogging up the system --there must be other relevant threads to use, so for people who are here to follow the header, give us a break --- please

 

[Gerasimental]

Heard from German store that they are expecting five figure order numbers on March 31st (probably April 1 in Germany).
Who knows how accurate that is or how they come up with that, but if we extrapolate that to global...