Assuming the Tesla Model 3 offers a value proposition on a par with $45K BMW at an effective discount to the consumer of $10,000 up front, plus another $1K+ savings in running costs annually before incentives where applicable (and they are applicable in many places).
Assuming The Model 3 addresses a markets with an average new car price of around $33K (like America) plus $1000s per year in running costs.
Then objectively the Model 3 ought to be received in the auto market generally as simply the best value for money proposition as a new car for anyone that can afford a new car of about $25K or above - and it may well be more exciting to consumers at the low-end of that scale than just buying another Camry or Prius from a car dealer and resuming the pay at the pump cycle because family budget dictates, when the same budget or close enough will run the Model 3 without that indignity.
It rarely makes sense in investing circles to dream in hyperbolic numbers but objectively this remains true. The addressable market for this car is completely disconnected from Tesla's or anyone else's projections for capacity or ability to scale or just about anything else. Tesla has been accepted in the world as an Auto Maker, just like Ford, Toyota, GM, BMW, Audi and Mercedes - Tesla has even had that description forced upon it by its most rabid detractors and by the prognostications of industry "experts" like Bob Lutz - and here Tesla the Auto Maker comes with a better car at a better price. Are they suddenly not an Auto Maker? No! Too late for that. One other point to mention - most prospective auto consumers surveyed tend to tick the box marked "innovation" as their most important purchasing criterion and when included, hit to box marked Tesla when indicating the most innovative auto brand.
What would anyone faced with that offer - a better car at a better price - do when they are in the market for a new car? Choose a worse one at a higher price from a tired and boring Auto Maker just because adding their name to a Tesla reservation tally would contribute to making that list unrealistically large according to some talking-head analyst on Bloomberg or CNBC - or to make way for someone else to get in line before them? I don't think so and most people can't be bothered with Bloomberg or CNBC anyway and would rather watch the Sport Channel, Game of Thrones or something on Netflix. Whatever the reservation tally, it will have no connection to reason besides the reasons affecting consumer choice and objectively there is NOTHING preventing whole percentages or even double digit percentages of the entire auto market choosing this car if it looks and performs better and simply appeals more than other cars that cost more money. Tesla's servers have more capacity to register customers than the sum of the world's vehicle production capacity, Tesla has plenty of room in its server racks for all comers.
