Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Sharing losses is good too so people realize that not all trades are winners.

You want to talk about losses? Let's talk about my long position in SUNE.

 

[Wenche]

Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?

On Cnbc's poll, the results are close to the same percentage, as within the first hour with only 450 votes, now there are more than 12 000 votes. This is not a poll on TMC, and you don't need to logg in or anything. I believe this shows a great demand for the Model 3.

 

[Fallenone]

Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?

On Cnbc's poll, the results are close to the same percentage, as within the first hour with only 450 votes, now there are more than 12 000 votes. This is not a poll on TMC, and you don't need to logg in or anything. I believe this shows a great demand for the Model 3.

Well the fact that it doesn't require log in to vote is not a good indication of the reliability of the result. For example, I voted twice, once at home and once at work. I think it uses IP address to identify votes. If someone wants to, he/she can easily manipulate this poll.

 

[sunhelm]

Sharing losses is good too so people realize that not all trades are winners.

So my current loss was actually a lesson on not getting too greedy when it comes to options. During its recent high of almost $240 2 weeks ago, many here disclosed that they were cashing in their positions, saying the run-up would not be sustainable due to the light volume and a " sell the news" cycle. Well, I didn't. Emotionally, I think my head was full of endorphins at that time and was thinking it could go higher so I stayed put.

Not really a loss but a miss on my theoretical gain (bird in hand worth 2 in the bush type thing).

 

[Crowded Mind]

Well the fact that it doesn't require log in to vote is not a good indication of the reliability of the result. For example, I voted twice, once at home and once at work. I think it uses IP address to identify votes. If someone wants to, he/she can easily manipulate this poll.

I would be surprised if someone was manipulating this very much. As @Wenche said, the percentages have been consistent since the poll opened. I'm curious to hear other thoughts on this. The poll indicates that 9,000+ people intend to reserve and I can't imagine this would cover even 10% of the population that will be reserving. Sure, huge margin for error on something like this, but it points in the direction of 100k+ reservations.

 

[Fallenone]

I would be surprised if someone was manipulating this very much. As @Wenche said, the percentages have been consistent since the poll opened. I'm curious to hear other thoughts on this. The poll indicates that 9,000+ people intend to reserve and I can't imagine this would cover even 10% of the population that will be reserving. Sure, huge margin for error on something like this, but it points in the direction of 100k+ reservations.

Besides of this poll, my opinion on the reservation number in 24 hours has changed quite a lot over the past week. Initially I think 100k is way too much. But having seen the Model 3 camp-out sheet in the Model 3 sub-forum, the early reservation policy extending to Space X, and phone calls to local stores, I now think 100k within 24 hours is not unrealistic.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Could this be a RSI and MACD reset? Staying flat for a few days forms a nice base and provides confirmation. Wouldn't be surprised if it stays ~$230 until Friday.

 

[MikeC]

I think a couple years of being range bound (and the recent drop to 140) has made some of us more pessimistic/realistic than we were in 2013/2014. This may be why tolerance is low for some of the pie-in-the-sky unabashed bullishness that has been pervading this thread in recent weeks.

So a lot of us who have lost money with options after event reveals in the past have been bracing for the "sell the news", and this may be why we haven't seen as much "buy the rumor" given the significance of the Model 3 unveil on Tesla's growth trajectory.

I also think the stock will most likely do what most people don't expect and would not be surprised to see us rally past 240 and never look back.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

View attachment 169113 Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?

On Cnbc's poll, the results are close to the same percentage, as within the first hour with only 450 votes, now there are more than 12 000 votes. This is not a poll on TMC, and you don't need to logg in or anything. I believe this shows a great demand for the Model 3.

I'm optimistic about demand but I don't pay any attention to these types of polls. Remember, an unscientific manipulated poll declared Kim Jong Un Time Magazine Person of the year.

 

[Wenche]

QUOTE="Fallenone, post: 1441562, member: 40111"]Well the fact that it doesn't require log in to vote is not a good indication of the reliability of the result. For example, I voted twice, once at home and once at work. I think it uses IP address to identify votes. If someone wants to, he/she can easily manipulate this poll.[/QUOTE]

I guess you have kids too, so I will post a deposit for a Model 3 for my kids to share.
They don't know that I will put in an order, but I think, if they knew of the poll, they would vote for: 3 x

"Yes, but not sure if I'll actually buy it when the time comes"
Because they will still be students and not in finacial possision of buying one themselves

 

[Fallenone]

QUOTE="Fallenone, post: 1441562, member: 40111"]Well the fact that it doesn't require log in to vote is not a good indication of the reliability of the result. For example, I voted twice, once at home and once at work. I think it uses IP address to identify votes. If someone wants to, he/she can easily manipulate this poll.

I guess you have kids too, so I will post a deposit for a Model 3 for my kids to share.
They don't know that I will put in an order, but I think, if they knew of the poll, they would vote for: 3 x

"Yes, but not sure if I'll actually buy it when the time comes"
Because they will still be students and not in finacial possision of buying one themselves [/QUOTE]
Nicely said, only that I don't have kids yet... Anyway, I do intend to reserve two, but may cancel one in two years depending on how the future turns out.

 

[MitchJi]

I agree, and that's largely why I don't much post anymore.

I want to amend my previous post. Since blocking the w's fantasies (reluctantly, never blocked anyone on any forum before) I am not dissatisfied with the content of the thread except that I miss FluxCap's and Jesse's posts.

Example of OT content I like:

Additional details on the subject are here:
Elon Musk reportedly visited Mobileye to test tech for next gen Tesla Autopilot

Very valuable, thanks! But I don't see any short-term relevance.

And I hope that both Julian and JHM continue to post. I have benefited from both of their contributions.

Moving on to responding to specific posts...
I am equally surprised by the fact that Julian thinks the following is even plausible, and the fact that he is so positive it's correct...

I have attempted to explain as clearly as I know how that this is completely impossible, no ifs or buts. Not without passing through bankruptcy first.

Are you suggesting major auto makers might go bust in a year's time or less, compete their restructuring and emerge as EV players by 2020 or that I have left some room for doubt on the table on this subject?

If it is the latter then I should apologize. As soon as it becomes impossible to sell a hobbled EV at a significant premium to an equivalent ICE vehicle and treat EVs as a little niche market all to itself, its all over. That's like 5 days time.

Beyond the competitive tipping point where the ability to make millions of engines is no competitive advantage either in terms of price or customer value, making EVs becomes a poisoned pill with no way to insulate any benefit from going to market with them from turning off millions of consumers at a time from a less compelling and more expensive ICE vehicles.

Unless as a large automaker you can launch with the capacity to make millions of EVs and can simultaneously afford to write off the ability to make millions of ICEs, you cannot go there - just advertising a cost competitive EV would be fatal. Bankruptcy restructuring is always going to be a cheaper option than even trying to do this.

Tesla does not need millions of unit capacity to go there directly - if a million customers defect from ICE for Tesla's that isn't bankruptcy that's just pure opportunity.

This is what a tech disruption is and it is mathematically inescapable. There is no room for doubt, only delusion like disagreeing that 2+2=4. It does equal 4 no matter what authority says otherwise.

IMO he is subject to the error that JB mentioned (paraphrasing) "people think because batteries have always been expensive, that they will always be expensive". He also said:

“I think we’re at the beginning of a new cost-decline curve, and, you know, this is something where there’s a lot of similarities to what happened with photovoltaics. Almost no one [would have predicted] that photovoltaic prices would have dropped as fast as they have, and storage is right at the cliff, heading down that price curve. It’s soon going to be cheaper to drive a car on electricity — a pure EV on electricity — than it is to drive a gasoline car. And as soon as we see that kind of shift in the actual cost of operation in a car that you can actually use for your daily driver, you know, from all manufacturers I believe we’re going to see electric vehicles come to dominate the whole transportation fleet..

The only reason EV's are more expensive than ICEv's is the price of batteries (motors, invertors ands BMS"s are not that expensive or difficult). EV's will dominate as battery prices fall. Tesla has at least a 5-10 year headstart, but at some point every OEM will be able to build EV's for less than they build gas cars. If you don't think OEM's are well positioned to do that look at how long it's taking Tesla to ramp production to 100k.

...without reducing ICE production volumes (or ICE mileage consumed) as previously indicated I.E. Delaying Judgement Day. Obviously oil has nothing to worry about with this going on until it stops. All of these lease cars will end up in the used vehicle market at whatever price the market will bear until end of life 15-20 years from now with only a mild and very delayed acceleration of scrapping aging ICE vehicles on account of residual value suppression making them uneconomic to repair.

And electricity will be less expensive. Why will anyone continue to buy old ICEv's when the costs of fuel and maintenance are so much higher?

Worst than that.. they actively screwed the electrification movement in many obvious and non-obvious ways. The biggest non-obvious way is Nissan and Mitsubishi's insistence on using CHAdeMO in the U.S. It was readily apparent that 200 amp DC EVSE's were an evolutionary dead end, even in 2009. These companies all pay futurists to project what things could/should/would be like 5, 10, 20 years into the future. Clearly long range battery electric vehicles would need 300-400 amp DC charging at real world rates above 100 kW for reasonably road trip cadence.

By introducing half-assed, half-baked products that they really didn't want to build, they could stall a movement that they didn't really want in the first place. Or at least, electrification would have taken far longer and relegated to a small eco-niche. It would have gone according to plan if not for Tesla.

Disagree. IMO the main thing that differentiates Tesla-EM from Nissan-Ghosn is the superior vision and boldness of Tesla-EM.

 

[sundaymorning]

I guess you have kids too, so I will post a deposit for a Model 3 for my kids to share.
They don't know that I will put in an order, but I think, if they knew of the poll, they would vote for: 3 x

"Yes, but not sure if I'll actually buy it when the time comes"
Because they will still be students and not in finacial possision of buying one themselves

Nicely said, only that I don't have kids yet... Anyway, I do intend to reserve two, but may cancel one in two years depending on how the future turns out.[/QUOTE]
Shorts can vote 3x as well. The voting can go both ways.

 

[Yuri_G]

I recall someone mentioning Elon may call for increased production for the 3 before it comes out. Well...

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Fallenone]

Nicely said, only that I don't have kids yet... Anyway, I do intend to reserve two, but may cancel one in two years depending on how the future turns out.

Shorts can vote 3x as well. The voting can go both ways.[/QUOTE]
I was thinking using some algo to automatically change one's ip and vote over thousands of time when I said manipulating the vote.

Anyway, doesn't really matter.

 

[Cattledog]

Elon never messes around with something like this. Never. He knows Tesla and SpaceX numbers, can imagine where Solar City employees will go, has heard back from regional sales managers that the lines at stores are going to be nuts. New factory will be announced before the end of the year IMO. This is the 2016 equivalent of 5-part trilogy.

 

[Wenche]

I recall someone mentioning Elon may call for increased production for the 3 before it comes out. Well...

Elon Musk on Twitter

View attachment 169113 Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?

On Cnbc's poll, the results are close to the same percentage, as within the first hour with only 450 votes, now there are more than 12 000 votes. This is not a poll on TMC, and you don't need to logg in or anything. I believe this shows a great demand for the Model 3.

Great! Elon just got the same numbers as I did

 

[Dwdnjck]

I gues that answers whether or not Tesla will reveal reservation counts.

 

[RAM_Eh]

I gues that answers whether or not Tesla will reveal reservation counts.

they will if it is to their benefit, and by all accounts they will. Probably not right away but will hold it for the trump card.

 

[austinEV]

So my current loss was actually a lesson on not getting too greedy when it comes to options. During its recent high of almost $240 2 weeks ago, many here disclosed that they were cashing in their positions, saying the run-up would not be sustainable due to the light volume and a " sell the news" cycle. Well, I didn't. Emotionally, I think my head was full of endorphins at that time and was thinking it could go higher so I stayed put.

Not really a loss but a miss on my theoretical gain (bird in hand worth 2 in the bush type thing).

As of close 3/29, we are at 230. 10/240 is a 4.1% drop. Perspective people! If that is a calamitous drop for you... [boilerplate about investing what you can afford to lose and risk lecture]

Besides, we are 24 hours away from the drop of the 3. Were you investing solely to bail before that??? I am mystified. Now is not the time to declare victory or defeat.