Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Does anyone know/has it been confirmed if we can reserve a car in someone else's name? I'm about 1 hour out from Rocklin with my wife, we are reserving 2. I have a friend that plans to come but is having difficulty with work/child care issues. I would like to reserve one for him if he can't make it?

 

[Yuri_G]

The spreadsheet tracking line up numbers just crossed 10k. So much for 15k reservations in the first week!

Model 3 Line Update Spreadsheet

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yes... I was wondering the same. Who are the robots?

These:

 

[hershey101]

These:

View attachment 169578

the bots are parsing this thread and buying up shares

 

[LargeHamCollider]

2 hours prior to open I was the 179th person in line at the Phoenix store. I suspect the average is well over 100 per store at opening.

 

[Julian Cox]

I suspect Elon will announce numbers tonight. It helps build confidence for those waiting to order online but more importantly it places significant pressure on other manufacturers to get with the Secret Master Plan

OK. So at least you get the point that the primary outcome of spelling the beans on M3 reservation numbers would be to encourage Tesla's enemies to attack sooner rather than later by any means at their disposal. Note that big oil and big auto does not have the ability to attack in good faith with a competing product - hence this would be inviting foul play only. The other effect would be to encourage Apple etc to redouble their competitive efforts and risk splitting the industry standards for the future of the auto industry that Tesla is otherwise able to establish around its own platform.

Musk seems like a nice enough guy but he's not in the category of nice but dim.

 

[WarpedOne]

The bigger the number is, the bigger Tesla's interest is not to show it as it will dampen further reservations. And that would mean decreasing 0 interest loan.

I expect the talk about huge interest but no exact numbers that would rain on m3 fire.
Another factory? A given thing.

 

[hershey101]

OK. So at least you get the point that the primary outcome of spelling the beans on M3 reservation numbers would be to encourage Tesla's enemies to attack sooner rather than later by any means at their disposal. Note that big oil and big auto does not have the ability to attack in good faith with a competing product - hence this would be inviting foul play only. The other effect would be to encourage Apple etc to redouble their competitive efforts and risk splitting the industry standards for the future of the auto industry that Tesla is otherwise able to establish around its own platform.

Musk seems like a nice enough guy but he's not in the category of nice but dim.

I suspect something along the lines of "we have had an overwhelming response" but no actual numbers quoted tonight. Someone will press him in the conference call, and he'll try to avoid the question with "more than what we expected" and "we may need to build more production capacity than initially planned"... Followed by a capital raise.

 

[theschnell]

Does anyone know/has it been confirmed if we can reserve a car in someone else's name? I'm about 1 hour out from Rocklin with my wife, we are reserving 2. I have a friend that plans to come but is having difficulty with work/child care issues. I would like to reserve one for him if he can't make it?

In Marietta, they said you could as long as you had the person's name and email, and it was one of your 2 reservations per person. So if you are by yourself and already reserving 2 for yourself than you're outa luck, or your friend is. Otherwise should be fine.

 

[Ulmo]

The spreadsheet tracking line up numbers just crossed 10k. So much for 15k reservations in the first week!

Model 3 Line Update Spreadsheet

I think there's a Trump effect, on a subconscious level: "This is the kind of thing I get in line for: a product I believe in, that will make me happy and will be nice for me, that will save the world, that isn't about being poor and dealing with subjected victim-oriented opposing polidemographic groups." That Trump effect might account for a good 15% of the line-standing.

 

[Drax7]

if we start trading above yesterday's high, we are going to see some serious body english
. Short discomfort will escalate in a big way.

 

[Julian Cox]

Stopped by Decatur, GA store, 120 in lines as of about 9:30 am.

One reservationist told me that as a US Customs officer he has seen a lot of people entering the country to go to work for Tesla. They say that the Model 3 is big, but there is something much bigger that has led to their recruitment

Sounds like GF ramp. Maybe indirect - like mining.

 

[Ulmo]

Novice interest in the premarket, followed by morning bear sells, followed by morning post-bear bullishness related to current goings-ons, followed by overexuberance drawback. Wish I had executed properly at my chosen point and stayed in, but fumblefingers failed execution got me scared when it spiked past my comfort and I ended up trading spike spreads and making very little today. I'm not expecting a lot more bullishness today; that's where my novice outlook has me ignorant. And one thing I've learned is that I'm too new to this to do well when things aren't very bullish.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Update from the relative who placed an order in King of Prussia store near Philadelphia: he was about 50-ies in the line; with three Tesla store employees taking reservations, and each reservation taking 2-3 minutes he was out of the store and into the mall in about 45 minutes. The line after he exited the store grew much larger, to about 250 people strong snaking into the mall...

...and we are having a lift-off...

Thanks to everybody posting pictures and data from the stores. Robots are welcome to peruse this thread very much.

And here are pictures of what a person reserving about #50 saw when he got out of the store into the Mall:

 

[EinSV]

If there are 40-50k in person, how many online at 8:30 Pacific? I would guess 2x, somewhat conservatively - especially with Model S &X owners and potential "fleet". Any oddsmakers out there want to set the line on an Over/Under of 150k reservations by market open Friday?

I'll take the over.

Would have said "under" until this morning. But my money is on "over" now.

 

[hershey101]

I expect to here "We are sold out of the first half of 2018 production" during Q1 CC... (better yet, "we are sold out of 2018 production")

For reference I expect M3 production to be ~100K in 2018.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

OK. So at least you get the point that the primary outcome of spelling the beans on M3 reservation numbers would be to encourage Tesla's enemies to attack sooner rather than later by any means at their disposal. Note that big oil and big auto does not have the ability to attack in good faith with a competing product - hence this would be inviting foul play only. The other effect would be to encourage Apple etc to redouble their competitive efforts and risk splitting the industry standards for the future of the auto industry that Tesla is otherwise able to establish around its own platform.

Musk seems like a nice enough guy but he's not in the category of nice but dim.

Well, I am both nice and dim (most here agree with the latter, can't know the former).

So I will go on record to say.

If there is a deadline announced for reservations to have convertibility to configure for the performance variant(s) of M3, thereafter I would expect the running tally of online numbers to be widely communicated by the company. So, not necessarily tonight.

I am confident (but nowhere near certain) that there will be a cut-off for one or more variants.
And even if there is, Musk may perceive an advantage to delay announcing it by a few days.

But more generally, extremely large reservations will help Musk step over the comparatively lesser concerns you quite rightly pointed out.

 

[StephenM]

Well, I got here at 5 a.m. and I naively thought I might be first because no one would know that the new temp store in the mall can't take reservations and you have to go to the service center which is all the way out in the sticks. Well, I was wrong and it's still early...

 

[hiroshiy]

In Tokyo, where they started taking reservations since 6 pm yesterday PDT (don't worry, we are reserving RHD vehicles), we had a line in the morning, but after that I was able to reserve M3 in 3 minutes. My reservation number's last 5 digits are 56183.

In one day, I guess more than 100 people made reservation, but not 200.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I'm spamming my friend who works on Wall Street with these threads and pics of the reservation lines. Hint, hint...