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After the usual bull excrement on the Seeking Alpha site, I just posted:
It is a business contradiction for the major auto companies to sell electric vehicles. It is a survival contradiction for all of us to use fossil fuels.
Quo exposit dictum.
It is a business contradiction for the major auto companies to sell electric vehicles. It is a survival contradiction for all of us to use fossil fuels.
Quo exposit dictum.
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Line is longer than expected. Switch to bull case.
yesterdays high is 235.5, once we exceed that I expect the shorts to panic
all the recent short will be underwater.
no mention yet on CNBC
phil lebow where are you?
all the recent short will be underwater.
no mention yet on CNBC
phil lebow where are you?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
The line is now officially crazy at Mission Viejo store. Many Hundreds..
Model 3 Reservation Numbers Appearing in My Tesla
May be extremely important to watch this thread for the short-term--Model 3 reservation numbers now going up. If we can decode this, may it lead to advanced notice on reservation numbers?
May be extremely important to watch this thread for the short-term--Model 3 reservation numbers now going up. If we can decode this, may it lead to advanced notice on reservation numbers?
On the discussion whether Tesla should or should not reveal the reservation count and when, I do not think they will, unless they NEED to buttress their story designed to facilitate capital raise for the second automobile factory.
At this point there is absolutely NO need to do this. The Ginny is out of the bottle. The brilliant plan to bring people into the stores for the whole world to actually see that there is demand far exceeding any historically based precedents for the product STARTING at $35K, site not seen, and the one that will not get into the consumer hands before 2018 succeeded beyond anybody's expectations.
At this point there is absolutely NO need to do this. The Ginny is out of the bottle. The brilliant plan to bring people into the stores for the whole world to actually see that there is demand far exceeding any historically based precedents for the product STARTING at $35K, site not seen, and the one that will not get into the consumer hands before 2018 succeeded beyond anybody's expectations.
I think there have been very well reasoned arguments by Julian and others against revealing the reservation number. I am going to be a contrarian on this. Model III is different. Momentum is building toward the event. Many eyes, old, new, analysts, potential investors, new reservation holders, potential new reservation holders - will be tuned in tonight. California will finish up the in-store reservations strong. An announcement of reservations in weeks or months would be anti-climactic and assumptions to whether announcing reservation numbers would tamp down demand or spur demand could be argued either way.
I think the rabbit comes out of the hat.....and it's a big, f'ing rabbit.
I can't imagine an Australian staffer has the inside track on Elon's short-term, high level strategy plays. Not sure why you keep citing him/her. I think it's quite clear that Elon will be speaking to the high interest, though perhaps not giving a precise number. Look at his tweets already - mentioning CNBC poll and needing faster production, mentioning that he is inspired by high demand, offering a token of gratitude to people that wait in line, etc.
Clearly, he wants the story to be about high high the demand is. Part of that story is talking about the magnitude of the reservations. I agree he won't speak in terms of "2018-2019 sold out!" because that would suppress demand/interest. I think he will talk in broad figures, e.g., "over 100,000 already" or whatever.
I look at it like this. Control must rest in the hands of Musk. He has never had as much control over anything as he has today. The stores will not be allowed to say anything off their own bat.
Musk will only let numbers out (whether store orders or online orders) when they are suitably into the astronomical realm. On his scale not mine, of course, so I don't have any idea at what sort of numbers his threshold may lie.
The sooner that the mounting tally is visible to everyone, the more bullish I will be.
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Active Member
Saw a guy counting the line so I followed, turned out he is a reporter from the Sacramento Bee. I was interviewed for article and also video. Reporter had limited knowledge of Tesla, I did my best.
Throwing my guess in.
I think if they really do have enough reservations to sell out the planned 2017/2018 production, Musk *has* to announce it, in order to avoid disappointing people. This would most likely be combined with a capital raise to, well, expand 2017/2018 production.
If they don't have that many reservations... well, the biggest projection I read in the press was 100,000. If he beats the best analyst estimate, I bet he announces it. Adn yes it'll be vague.
I think if they really do have enough reservations to sell out the planned 2017/2018 production, Musk *has* to announce it, in order to avoid disappointing people. This would most likely be combined with a capital raise to, well, expand 2017/2018 production.
If they don't have that many reservations... well, the biggest projection I read in the press was 100,000. If he beats the best analyst estimate, I bet he announces it. Adn yes it'll be vague.
Martin, please be careful with this. IMO the Sell On the News thesis is the suckers bet.
Putting on a Seeking Alpha style bearish hat for a minute (not a good fit I can tell you) - Watching Musk's sheep answer his call to line up in shopping malls for a stock pumping photo op /hat off. Is NOT the news.
The news is that Tesla has undeniably and self-evidently broken the ICE technology moat on automotive, forever - that's the news. You could not convince a short to anticipate this news on the rumor even if you paid him and most longs would find this to be a proposition worthy of skepticism too.
The shorts will have to wear this breach of denial like a hat tonight and it will be pulled all the way down to their ankles come Monday. We may even get treated to concession speeches from other auto maker CEOs over the weekend with pitiable pleas for consumer calm and forbearance while they try to do what they can to catch up.
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BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
15 minutes to open in Phoenix, over 400 in line, I hesitate to speak in an excited state but this looks like a watershed moment to me.
Musk has explicitly stated multiple times that his goal is to move the entire auto industry to BEV as soon as possible. As a TSLA investor I agree that it may not be in the best interest of the share price, but don't forget what Musk is trying to do goes well beyond TSLA valuation.
Minneapolis store has 350 people when the reservation started. Some people reserving 2, do not know the exact percentage. I think this store's reservation will reach 600~800 before online reservation starts. This is the only store in Minnesota, so the number could be misleading. I guess those who reserve online will see 100,000 people ahead of them (200 stores X 500 each store + employee reservation). Those who reserve tomorrow probably will see 150,000~200,000 ahead of them.
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