Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

Are they tracking toward a quarter -million reservations by Monday? Perhaps that will form an additional data point on the Q1 Deliveries Estimate.

(I say "Estimate" because it gets revised in the Earnings Report)

 

[Fallenone]

Although we're off about $15 from pre-market high, we're still up a decent $7.8 at close. There was an apparent sell on news effect going on, but was arrested by the three tweets from EM. The bar today does not look great, but considering the range we were in last week and the indecisiveness (two doji in a week), I think the stock is doing quite well.

 

[Tenable]

Odd, on google if you type TSLA, it consistently shows the stock around 4$ above what I have displayed on my platform as the closing price. Google error or is something else going on?

 

[SBenson]

Model X is the wild card here. The troubled production ramp, combined with excitement over Model 3, has pretty much put Model X in the back of minds. If the Model X production ramp reaches Elon's goals, and deliveries/revenues are great, I think it's possible to see a repeat stock surge.

This is a big if though. It depends on the numbers at this point.

From what I understand X ramp up started pretty late into the quarter. So we may not see a very impressive X delivery number for Q1. But we should see a dramatic increase in Q2, for which guidance will be out in Q1 ER. So, my sense is that we may need to wait for Q1 ER for any big stock movement.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

So at 125k reservations, I suspect the Model S is booked through 2018. At 300k to 400k booked through 2019. At 700k to 800k booked through 2020.

Now, my daughter starts driving in 2020. Should I be worried?

Skip that. What production schedule seems reasonable at this point? How does pushing the booked through date lead start to feed demand for reservations? That is, if I am worried about being able to buy a Model 3 in 2020, when when do I place my reservation?

Something tells me Tesla is planning to
deliver more than 150k Model 3 by mid - late 2018.

 

[BobSk]

I wonder if the pad/tablet will be removable?

I think that's a good idea. There is nothing preventing doing that.

 

[SBenson]

Major media calling this an "iPhone moment".

Model 3 Gives Musk an iPhone Moment and Big Test for Factories

 

[replicant]

Reuters on the need for Kapital:
Tesla, buoyed by strong Model 3 orders, may need more cash

 

[McMuggets]

Darn, I was wrong on the close above $240. Totally thought a rally was in the cards going into the weekend. OH well!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The Bears will argue that deposits don't equal sales. This has proven to not be the case with the Model S or Model X. Also, the total addressable market for the Model 三 is 1 billion people. Many people who currently own a vehicle that is at least 2 years old count as a potential customer.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Wow. What a way to start the weekend.

Not only has Tesla hit it out of the park, it launched it beyond orbit and put it well on its way to a Mars-bound trajectory. I am completely blown away by the extent to which they obliterated all (already extremely high) expectations, both in terms of the car itself, which is a stunner, and in terms of number of reservations, which is positively insane.

This was Tesla's iPhone moment. It is hitting the incumbents right now harder than they could have possibly imagined. Those CEOs will not enjoy another good night's sleep for many years to come.

I am quite exhausted with all the excitement and I can't muster anymore superlatives, and I know I'm not saying anything that hasn't been said already multiple times on this board, but I just needed to say it out loud one more time, if only to make a humble personal mark that I can show my kids and grandkids a few decades from now.

 

[tanner]

Although we're off about $15 from pre-market high, we're still up a decent $7.8 at close. There was an apparent sell on news effect going on, but was arrested by the three tweets from EM. The bar today does not look great, but considering the range we were in last week and the indecisiveness (two doji in a week), I think the stock is doing quite well.

Really hoping it will rally to that on Monday

 

[PaulusdB]

Too many pages of posts that I haven't read through yet, so maybe this was already posted, but a Porsche seems to have commit hari-kiri this morning when it learned of the Model 3 announcement.

Porsche bursts into flames at NYC auto show | New York Post

It's a world wide thing. This happened in Amsterdam 2 miles from Tesla Motors' European HQ, SeC and SuC.

Splinternieuwe Porsche rijdt water in bij dealer Amsterdam

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Elon mentioned on Twitter a Tesla Truck is in the works for the future. I think everyone missed this little comment. The 200,000 + deposits are only for the Sedan.

 

[FredTMC]

We need more analyst upgrades or price target increases! Likely they are holding out till next week when the reservation list picture becomes more clear, and they have had a chance to digest.

Adam Jonas this morning stated in a note:

"If Tesla can produce and deliver (even roughly on time) the car they unveiled last night at close to a $35k price, then this stock is probably quite undervalued."

Just wait for it...

Amen brother. Besides Adam J owes us an upgrade after all his BS last year. Plus full autonomous Uber killed is probably coming in Elon model 3 part duex

 

[Fallenone]

All major automakers (GM, F, FCAU, TM, VLKAY, DAI, BMW) are down quite a bit today. Quickly glancing through the news section it seems like it was triggered by weaker than expected sales. But anything else in play here?

 

[tanner]

Is the general consensus that TSLA will release Q1 numbers over the weekend/Monday? Forecast?

 

[sunhelm]

The Bears will argue that deposits don't equal sales. This has proven to not be the case with the Model S or Model X. Also, the total addressable market for the Model 三 is 1 billion people. Many people who currently own a vehicle that is at least 2 years old count as a potential customer.

Or if they do sell, since apparently Tesla loses $$ on each car, then that will add to the massive, massive losses. SMH

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

I am also totally mindblown over this historic day for Tesla. I really think the future looks super bright. These numbers should simply mean close to guaranteed succes. And the bear argument about demand proven worthless.

What i can`t comprehend is the lack of price action. Numbers alone should make everyone wake up and smell the coffee..

Really sad these days has not created more press and a higher stock price. Here in Norway the event created buzz, but not in the magnitude to which it is deserved. It´s an historic moment that will define and prove that the future is bright for Tesla. I even think other auto companies dropped hard today because of the Tesla shock.

So to sum it up, I have to say I am left with the feeling that big oil/auto/Koch is going at TSLA with hard ammo and that we might see billions of dollars thrown at TSLA to try to make it fail.

Anyone with same thoughts, or am I just being too negative?

 

[FredTMC]

He is trying hard to pop the stock, but he claims he isn't worried about stock price There are double bookings in this count. Some people reserved multiple cars (a father-son duo reserved ten in store). When Elon said "Model 3 orders, whether in store or online, are limited to two per person", did he mean minimum of two? Glad to see the Tesla software engineers help out Elon with the reservation count.

But don't worry. The reservation count will vanish from quarterly reports, just like the Model X reservation count that vanished long ago. Or the Powerwall count.

Blah, blah blah. "Bitter party of one". Forget You, forget you and forgot you.

Here's to ALL the longs. Cheers everyone. Tesla clearly will be a major auto mfg and Elon and company will change the world for the better.