Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

Is it me or do the CNBC folks always seem to know less about Tesla than the average consumer? Aren't these people supposed to provide insight and clarity?

In fact, I think quite a few wallstreet analysts are less knowledgeable than some members here.

 

[BobSk]

If you go back to read all the messages in the past, you will find some people are right 70~80% of time. Some people get 50/50. Some are wrong 80% of the time.
If you want to make money, focus on those who get 70~80% right. Their brains probably can work right, and they have a good chance to continue post intelligent posts. If you can't tell who belongs to which group, your account is in trouble. Of course you shouldn't follow anyone blindly.

 

[BobSk]

Is it me or do the CNBC folks always seem to know less about Tesla than the average consumer? Aren't these people supposed to provide insight and clarity?

#1, they generally do know less.
#2, lots of "news" are paid.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

If Tesla really needed 1 billion in cash, let's say by tomorrow, all Tesla would need to do is provide those with deposits the ability to increase their deposit to $5,000 or $10,000, in exchange for a ticket to an exclusive VIP party, and maybe include the opportunity to ride in a Tesla Roadster for 30 minutes with Elon. And of course priority in the queue.

Remember, Elon has 3.5 million followers on Twitter.

 

[neroden]

Tanner, I feel your pain. I'm a novice trader and I made a bone head move last week when emotions were running hot and cost myself six figures.

Relax. I made a boneheaded mistake four years ago. I miscalculated my total assets. I bought much less TSLA at $30 a share than I should have, as a percentage of my total assets. I cost myself at least 2 million dollars. I'm going to be kicking myself forever over that one.

My grandmother berated herself for over 70 years for not buying Coca-Cola at $5/share in the 1920s.

It's a hazard of investing. You learn from it.

 

[generalenthu]

Is it me or do the CNBC folks always seem to know less about Tesla than the average consumer? Aren't these people supposed to provide insight and clarity?

See this from a few pages ago. Agree w/ bobsk that most news is paid for and Tesla should as well.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

 

[jhm]

Elon tweets,

"Thought it would slow way down today, but Model 3 order count is now at 198k. Recommend ordering soon, as the wait time is growing rapidly."

"Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..."

 

[Sudre]

I don't think Model ≡ will effect Model S much at all. Actually one person I know who will be test driving my car tomorrow has decided that since he is in the upper 100K reservation range and doesn't want to wait THAT long he most likely will just get a base Model S. SO if anything the Model ≡ has made people aware that the Tesla product IS within their grasp. Particularly in the CPO market... right now. THis is good for Tesla and the stock price.

I know a number of 'resistant to change' people. They try to down Tesla with the "car pollutes more than ICE" bull we hear all to often. After I mention to them that they don't even believe in global warming and let them drive my car, their story completely changes except for the price of the S. With the Model ≡ they now loss the price argument. What's left for them? This decrease in arguments against has to be good for Tesla and TSLA.

I can also image once my wife gets her Model ≡ and gets approached by the very few people about the pollution concerns in our coal state that her response might be something like, "I don't really care. My car looks better than yours, it's faster, cheaper and I don't have to stand in the freezing cold pumping gas.". In reality the very few people who bring up the pollution concern in my state have NO interest in CO2 levels. They just want to get a dig in to make you feel bad before they go into the Trump rally. Model ≡ ruins their arguments simply because it is a better car for the price. Period. You don't have to defend it. They have to defend their over priced gas car.

 

[Curt Renz]

Yeah, this is the most amazing part for the most people are still completely unaware of Tesla. I talked to several random people on my way back from the event and most people only vaguely know of Tesla and have absolutely no idea about the Model 3.

Indeed, that generally seems to be the case outside of California or this message board. Three years ago I was unaware of Tesla Motors or its cars. A tip from a stock market newsletter caused me to begin research. I bought shares over a period of three days as I learned more and more and considered the possibility that I may have found my long sought ten-bagger. Nevertheless, I never knowingly spotted a Model S in Chicagoland until last week. When I bring up the subject of Tesla cars with people here in Chicagoland, the majority are either unaware of Tesla or pretend to be vaguely aware. Keep in mind that Tesla does not advertise. All of the news coverage about the long queues for Model 3 reservations may change that.

Wow, while composing this post I just now received email confirmation of my Model 3 reservation. It is further confirmed in MyTesla account, and $1000 has been debited from my credit card account. Only one reservation, just as I requested.

 

[30seconds]

The nice thing about the 3 is that the design seems to be more like the S than the X in terms of production. Simple doors, simple dash, no sunroof just a big piece of glass, etc. I'm really curious to see if they let the beta as completed on the next 10-Q

 

[BobSk]

If Tesla really needed 1 billion in cash, let's say by tomorrow, all Tesla would need to do is provide those with deposits the ability to increase their deposit to $5,000 or $10,000, in exchange for a ticket to an exclusive VIP party, and maybe include the opportunity to ride in a Tesla Roadster for 30 minutes with Elon. And of course priority in the queue.

Remember, Elon has 3.5 million followers on Twitter.

Elon personally has lots of money. SpaceX right now has 70 backed up launch orders. Total worth is about 10 billion dollars, and the launch waiting list is growing. The rocket reuse is very close to be working (a few years). That will translate a substantial part of the $10 billion to profit. Those who bet Tesla will get into finantial trouble and fail really don't know what they are talking about.

 

[MitchJi]

So even though we’ll finally be getting a glimpse at the Model 3 later today, Musk took to Twitter and said that Thursday’s unveiling is just part 1 of the show.

“Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil,” Musk said. “Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production.”

When pressed further, Musk added that the design of the car will be apparent, but that “some important elements will be added and some will evolve.”

Some of that is to prevent Osbourning the MS-MX.

So let's digest that EM tweet further. Average optioned pricing will be 42K, or 7K more than the base 35 K.

Which means, pricing of the following popular options can be extrapolated for Model 3:
Auto pilot enabled: 2K
Dual Motor: 3K
Mid batt option 2K

I realize the battery option may be low but maybe the dual motor + battery upgrade at 5K at a full GF production clip is probably a good assumption lowering the costs down. Or, a fully paid back software capitalization from S and X sales might have lowered the auto pilot cost.

Thoughts?

I agree that AP sales will be mostly gravy, minus the cost of hardware (free for non-buyers). I believe that the AP price will be 1K or less.

I believe that the base battery will be at least 70kWh. They won't announce the battery size until they (to prevent Osbourning) increase the size, and possibly decrease the prices for MS-MX.

I've long believed that there was enormous pent-up demand for something like Model 3, but even 198k reservations is beyond what I'd expected with reservations being open less than 48 hours.

The reservation numbers have blasted a giant hole in the bear thesis of "no demand" and "Chevy Bolt competition".

The reservation numbers have also blasted giant holes in the in the BNEF thesis (appears to be ahead of schedule), and ConocoPhillips' CEO Ryan Lance claims (beliefs?).
Electric Vehicles Could Soon Reduce Oil Demand By 13 Million Barrels Per Day | OilPrice.com

Electric cars could upend oil markets much sooner than everyone thinks.

According to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the rapid decline in the cost of building batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) will make them cheaper than the internal combustion engine in just a few years. By the 2020s, EVs could beat conventional vehicles on price, a shocking development and a potential epochal shift for energy markets.

The oil industry is clearly not planning for the EV revolution. Tom Randall of Bloomberg reported that ConocoPhillips' CEO Ryan Lance told him in 2015 that "EVs won't have a material impact for another 50 years--probably not in his lifetime."

I am providing the definition of compelling for the benefit of the Chevy Bolt engineer, who stated when the Bolt was unveiled that they were making the Bolt compelling .

compelling definition
evoking interest, attention, or admiration in a powerfully irresistible way.
"his eyes were strangely compelling"
synonyms: enthralling, captivating, gripping, riveting, spellbinding, mesmerizing, absorbing, irresistible
"a compelling performance"

not able to be refuted; inspiring conviction.
"compelling evidence"

not able to be resisted; overwhelming.
"the temptation to give up was compelling"

 

[Tenable]

The nice thing about the 3 is that the design seems to be more like the S than the X in terms of production. Simple doors, simple dash, no sunroof just a big piece of glass, etc. I'm really curious to see if they let the beta as completed on the next 10-Q

Did anyone notice if the M3 handles retract like the MS? I was hoping for a static handle to reduce costs / improve ease of build. Not that I'd care to assume a better knowledge base on the product than TM.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Did anyone notice if the M3 handles retract like the MS? I was hoping for a static handle to reduce costs / improve ease of build. Not that I'd care to assume a better knowledge base on the product than TM.

Someone created a .gif of the prototype handle operation and posted it to this thread: Pictures of Model 3 from the reveal

The handle appears to be a spring-loaded lever. The operator presses the left side inward with thumb to pop the handle out, then grasp with rest of fingers and pull. I don't know if this will actually make it to production, but it seems like it would be less prone to glitches than the Model S door handles.

 

[sunhelm]

Did anyone notice if the M3 handles retract like the MS? I was hoping for a static handle to reduce costs / improve ease of build. Not that I'd care to assume a better knowledge base on the product than TM.

Pano roof leaks/squeaks and non-working door handles are the most repaired items in Model S so good chance they will not be there in the mass produced 3. One of the learnings they've gleaned that will be likely applied here.

 

[ggr]

Someone created a .gif of the prototype handle operation and posted it to this thread: Pictures of Model 3 from the reveal

The handle appears to be a spring-loaded lever. The operator presses the left side inward with thumb to pop the handle out, then grasp with rest of fingers and pull. I don't know if this will actually make it to production, but it seems like it would be less prone to glitches than the Model S door handles.

Exactly like the flush handles on '60s-70s era Cessnas...

 

[BobSk]

Relax. I made a boneheaded mistake four years ago. I miscalculated my total assets. I bought much less TSLA at $30 a share than I should have, as a percentage of my total assets. I cost myself at least 2 million dollars. I'm going to be kicking myself forever over that one.

My grandmother berated herself for over 70 years for not buying Coca-Cola at $5/share in the 1920s.

It's a hazard of investing. You learn from it.

The whole Coca-Cola was sold for $25 million in 2019. Today at 200 billion, that's about 10,000 fold. Plus it gave out huge amount of dividend for all these years. If she learned how to properly value a business, she would have bought lots of shares later even if she missed at the very beginning. That's a perfect example that learning investment is very important.

 

[RubberToe]

Hey tftf, with the Model 3 order number rapidly approaching 250,000, can you please let us know how much cash TSLA is going to have to burn to build a second gigafactory, and also a second assembly plant? And then expand on how bad for the company this will be?



RT

 

[BobSk]

Model 3 is likely to become the most reliable car in history. Tesla learns from early mistakes. For model 3, they try hard to eliminate unnecessary movable parts. If it can't move, it's unlikely to cause problems. Plus Tesla is trying very hard to improve reliability through building and checking process. The ease of manufacturing also helps with quality. I wouldn't be surprised if model 3 stays as the most reliable car for many years.

 

[FANGO]

A friend posted on facebook that the Model 3 announcement was carried on the local news in Jakarta, Indonesia. Note that this car is not available in Indonesia.

As if we didn't already know, guys, this thing is gonna be huge.