Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Lump]

Fessenheim nuclear plant..now thats a Supercharger.

 

[Larken]

Eh... I don't want to risk it when it's this high. It could still go down (maybe?)

Boy are you gonna get an ulcer quickly trying to game TSLA..... I suggest buy and hold if you have a time frame more than 6 months.

 

[Fallenone]

Hmm, anyone got suggestions on where to go to read up on the most recent battery advancement?

Also the current battery tesla is using and its composition?

In fact, SA came out a piece exactly on this

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3963265-hard-facts-tesla-gigafactory

 

[Gerasimental]

BTW, anyone who can answer my previous question about battery is much appreciated. It'll help tesla.

The skateboard CAD behind Elon at the presentation showed 8, lengthwise arranged modules.
I'm not sure what can be inferred from that.
Credit for the video and insight to Trevor Page.

 

[tinm]

Wow, 255. Is this a squeeze or is the market just happy to see the Model 3?

 

[Johan]

Boy are you gonna get an ulcer quickly trying to game TSLA..... I suggest buy and hold if you have a time frame more than 6 months.

Not sweating it here. I bought in to strength (calls) after that breakout from 247 to 250+ and kept climbing. IMO we are now trading within a very big potential window, i.e. above 250 but well below ATH of 290. A lot of positive things have happened since 290, a lot of de-risiking. We will visit ATH sooner rather than later. The Q1 "miss" was quickly forgotten and is "priced in". No proverbs in this post

 

[Lump]

Timing of this France news leak is perfect for next weeks capital raise…well done.

 

[Electrifying]

account up 25% from yesterday. Sold deep in the money calls and withdraw most profits. Holding about 40 call spreads now. Just bought a couple puts to protect my gains.

 

[Curt Renz]

PARIS (Reuters) - French Energy Minister Segolene Royal has suggested to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) founder Elon Musk that he builds an electric car factory on the site of France's oldest nuclear reactor after it closes at the end of the year, AFP reported on Tuesday.

French President Francois Hollande has pledged to close down the Fessenheim nuclear plant in the Alsace region near the German border but has met strong resistance from local politicians and unions worried about job losses.

"The main problem is the site's transformation," Royal said at a briefing, according to the news agency. "We need to give hope to this community. My idea is to bring a Tesla factory."

The outspoken minister, who has courted controversy before with off-the-cuff statements, said she had mentioned the idea to Musk himself and would see Tesla's management in 10 days.

"I said to him: 'I have a place for you, Fessenheim'. He didn't say no," Royal said. "Who dares, wins," she said.

Royal's staff did not return a request from Reuters for comment.

French utility EDF (NYSE: EDF) says it employs 850 people at the Fessenheim site and 250 contractors.

France has been a big supporter of electric cars, offering a bonus of up to 10,000 euros ($11,000) for the purchase of such cars and making the country the biggest market in Europe.

Royal herself invested public funds in a now-defunct electric car maker when she was head of a French region.

Tesla's Musk said he wanted to build a factory in Europe and mentioned Alsace in a video published by the specialist car website Automobile Propre in February.

"This is idle speculation, but maybe we could put a factory in Alsace, it's like half in Germany, half in France, something like that," Musk said in the video.

(Reporting by Michel Rose)

Thanks for posting the article.

That's undoubtedly just the start of offers to practically give away factory sites to Tesla in order to create jobs. Wall Street bankers will soon be crawling over each other to provide favorable financing. Look for state legislators currently beholden to franchised dealerships to start reconsidering their positions.

The queues at Tesla stores on Thursday are awakening governments, bankers, analysts, car buyers and investors. As the old saying goes, "Build a better mousetrap, and the world will beat a path to your door."

 

[tander]

Does anyone want to opine on whether Q1 earnings miss in May will ding things or if the market has it priced in as much as it will be?

 

[bh1783]

Does anyone want to opine on whether Q1 earnings miss in May will ding things or if the market has it priced in as much as it will be?

I think a loss on EPS is already priced in but free cash flow could be a factor. I wonder how many deposits will count towards Q1.

 

[JRP3]

BTW, anyone who can answer my previous question about battery is much appreciated. It'll help tesla.

Professor Jeff Dahn is working on higher voltage (4.7) NMC chemistry. Of course he's going to be working at Tesla soon so they probably already know.

 

[ggr]

Is this $247 ceiling seeking price behavior what happens when someone places a huge limit sell order at $247?

Yes, I think this is a textbook example of a large limit sell order, which finally got done. It must have been millions of shares.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

BTW, anyone who can answer my previous question about battery is much appreciated. It'll help tesla.

The endless sphere forum is constantly discussing it, also MIT has an energy blog that is good and often touches on batteries. But the real cutting edge stuff is probably all under NDA.

 

[Electrifying]

Wow, 255. Is this a squeeze or is the market just happy to see the Model 3?

I wouldn't consider a day to be a squeeze until TSLA is up more than $20 on 15 million shares traded.

 

[Fallenone]

Does anyone want to opine on whether Q1 earnings miss in May will ding things or if the market has it priced in as much as it will be?

Analysts consensus is at -0.47 non-gaap eps. I don't think they will miss. Might not be a surprise positive eps though. But if they really had a positive eps, that would be super.

In terms of cash flow, I think they can claim a net accumulated cash on hand, thus reversing the cash burn trend bears so focus on. OTOH, even if they accomplished this, a big chunk of it would be the deposits they collected on the Model 3. Bears still can say they are refundable and should not be accounted and Tesla is lying about their cash.

 

[tander]

I think a loss on EPS is already priced in but free cash flow could be a factor. I wonder how many deposits will count towards Q1.

Well they should be able to count over 100k deposits, which is probably 3x the net cash they would have received from meeting delivery guidance so that might be a good way to look at it. I'm thinking that if the market didn't seem to care about the miss today it probably won't in May.

 

[tander]

Sounds like Tesla is going to have a lot of positives over the next year, hopefully they will outweigh any macro stuff.

 

[larmor]

Not even sure q1 'miss' is really a miss, since cars take time to make, and even without further sales of MX, delivery and hence revenue would be accounted for in next quarter. Also, once car is made it is likely to be paid for, contrast that to a phone, watch, etc.

Also TM is still dealing with very small volumes. If they demonstrate a pathway to scaling, that is more instructive, even in the short term.

Not sweating it here. I bought in to strength (calls) after that breakout from 247 to 250+ and kept climbing. IMO we are now trading within a very big potential window, i.e. above 250 but well below ATH of 290. A lot of positive things have happened since 290, a lot of de-risiking. We will visit ATH sooner rather than later. The Q1 "miss" was quickly forgotten and is "priced in". No proverbs in this post

 

[Drax7]

this country bid for tesla is so massive i can't get my (little) head around it

amazing options for tesla opening up

i can think of at least another 10 countries bidding,
in prime real estate locations.

this is thermonuclear