Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Larken]

Look at this! Musk just commented on the high short interest! Wow.
Anyone remember early 2013 and Musk comments on the short interest? We all know how that unraveled.....

Elon Musk on Twitter

@elonmusk what would you say to someone who is shorting your stock? $tsla

Elon Musk: @Brianmrtz probably unwise

 

[Adm]

A Tesla Factory at the site of a nuclear reactor that has yet to be closed? Seriously? It will take over 10 years and than some to dismantle the reactor. I don't think Tesla will wait for that to happen.

 

[FluxCap]

300 by October.

 

[Curt Renz]

300 by October.

When the Cubs win the World Series!

 

[Drax7]

300 by October.

you are thinking small in my view

and there is nothing wrong with that,
except you cheat yourself

 

[Johan]

Fessenheim is 620 km from Tilburg. (As you can see it takes 34 hours by bike )


Good central EU location and as Musk has remarked Alsace/Elsas-Lothringen is basically as close to Germany you can get while still in France. (Fessenheim doesn't strike me as primarily a French sounding place).

Look at how Musk masterfully played states vs. states with the GF. He is going to do the same with EU countries. France, Germany primarily, maybe the Netherlands will get in the bidding. Outliers are Slovenia (discussed previously), maybe Slovakia. Less so the Chezch republic (Skoda would mind).

Factory in EU announced in 2016, the odds are very good.

 

[vgrinshpun]

A Tesla Factory at the site of a nuclear reactor that has yet to be closed? Seriously? It will take over 10 years and than some to dismantle the reactor. I don't think Tesla will wait for that to happen.

There is large exclusion zone around nuclear plants. I do not believe the offer is about building on exact spot of the de-commissioned plant. It could be a sweet deal to build in the exclusion zone, so there is no need to wait for the completion of the de-commissioning.

This could be quite a symbolic move by Musk not only because it is the nuclear plant Site, but also because this is a region bordering Germany, so it could be viewed as a challenge to the German automobile heavy-weights...

 

[roblab]

View attachment 170837 Fessenheim is 620 km from Tilburg. (As you can see it takes 34 hours by bike )


Good central EU location and as Musk has remarked Alsace/Elsas-Lothringen is basically as close to Germany you can get while still in France. (Fessenheim doesn't strike me as primarily a French sounding place).

Look at how Musk masterfully played states vs. states with the GF. He is going to do the same with EU countries. France, Germany primarily, maybe the Netherlands will get in the bidding. Outliers are Slovenia (discussed previously), maybe Slovakia. Less so the Chezch republic (Skoda would mind).

Factory in EU announced in 2016, the odds are very good.

OOOoooh! Factory Tour Vacation! Complete with Model S or 3 rental.

 

[tander]

Possible catalysts over the next year (just guesses here) in no particular order;
cashflow positive, marginally profitable
2nd battery factory announced or land bought in Europe
Chinese partner announced or in talks
X reviews
model y news
plans for a truck (the grail)
in talks with Uber or Lyft or police departments for big orders for model 3
and of course some growth in S and X sales
Missing anything, anything too unbelievable?

 

[Gerardf]

I think the current 1 year chart is quite interesting.

Tesla was the best performer all the time, the other car manufacturers are all down and, most interesting, (on this timescale) the deep dip of TSLA mid February was only to go down to the level of the best performing of the others of that same point in time.

It is almost like we bounced of the level of the others at that time .. (pure coincidence of course, but fun anyway)

 

[bh1783]

Possible catalysts over the next year (just guesses here) in no particular order;
cashflow positive, marginally profitable
2nd battery factory announced or land bought in Europe
Chinese partner announced or in talks
X reviews
model y news
plans for a truck
in talks with Uber or Lyft or police departments for big orders for model 3
and of course some growth in S and X sales
Missing anything, anything too unbelievable?

Gigafactory unveiling in April

 

[sunhelm]

Possible catalysts over the next year (just guesses here) in no particular order;
cashflow positive, marginally profitable
2nd battery factory announced or land bought in Europe
Chinese partner announced or in talks
X reviews
model y news
plans for a truck (the grail)
in talks with Uber or Lyft or police departments for big orders for model 3
and of course some growth in S and X sales
Missing anything, anything too unbelievable?

I would add substantial power pack installations. This is most often missed but to me is the dark horse - decent margins, no additional capex required.

 

[bh1783]

Also
model S refresh
P100D (100kw battery pack)
autopilot 2.0

 

[tander]

Is that this April for the giga-factory? Either way this is like watching the Bulls play in 95-96'.

 

[PaulusdB]

...Good central EU location and as Musk has remarked Alsace/Elsas-Lothringen is basically as close to Germany you can get while still in France... Factory in EU announced in 2016, the odds are very good.

Central location is one thing, an ocean/sea/river port is another. (Not to mention stability of government, taxation and labour force.)
I'm really curious how this plays out.

 

[surfside]

Possible catalysts over the next year (just guesses here) in no particular order;
cashflow positive, marginally profitable
2nd battery factory announced or land bought in Europe
Chinese partner announced or in talks
X reviews
model y news
plans for a truck (the grail)
in talks with Uber or Lyft or police departments for big orders for model 3
and of course some growth in S and X sales
Missing anything, anything too unbelievable?

i would add phase 2 of the model 3 reveal (although it could be 2H 2017), which per my post here in the "cards close to the chest' thread i'm increasingly convinced will be the announcement that all model 3 cars will have all of the hardware required for fully autonomous driving, as well as the announcement of tesla's shared mobility platform that will be available once regulatory approvals for fully autonomous vehicles are in place. maybe i'm dreaming, but i think it fits with the context of his recent tweets about phase 2.

surfside

 

[BobSk]

Mike, Everyone's finantial situation, knowledge, and risk tolerance is different. I can't tell you what to do, but I can explain to you how I deal with it. For years Tesla has been one of my largest holdings, I have a large core holding that I keep adding more shares to it. I never sell this part because based on my study, I think TSLA is highly likely to reach thousands per share in the next 10 years. Tesla continues to prove my view is correct. So there is no way I will sell my position. If I sell, I wouldn't get the full benefit. If I want to get a 100 bagger, I have to hold through the double and 10 fold. On the other hand, I have a trading portion that I trade many stocks. To summarize the trading portion, I buy low sell high, or buy high sell higher. Then I add trading profit to buy more long-term holdings. There are many ways to trade stocks, seconds-trade, day-trade, swing trade...... If I took the risk and it turns out I was right, I prefer to get the full benefit. In this case, TSLA started to produce model X at high speed, model 3 is wonderful, it will generate millions of demands, autonomous driving is coming. These are all major bullish factors. No one, including Apple and Google cars can compete. I don't mention ICE companies, because they don't stand a chance. On the technical side, TSLA broke the 200 DMA with ease, which supposedly is a tough resistance, on top of that, the large short position maybe forced to cover. I just hold to my trading longs including the shares I added last night. I will watch how this will develop, while keep a moving stop loss. My stop loss is only on my trading position. My core position does not have a stop loss. This is one of the best companies to invest in for the long-term. "It doesn't matter how often you get right, it matters how much you gained when you got right."

Ok guys, help me. So I was in at 3:00 am (Pacific) Friday morning after the announcement. I kind of estimated what I thought pre-orders would come in at and thought the market would like that. So I went in at $237 and some change. This was a short hold for me and I set a sell target of $250 which the stock met yesterday. Seeing how fast it was climbing, I got greedy and revised that to $255. Like everyone else, I watched it straddle $250 all day before tanking in AH.

During after hours we saw the announcement from Tesla and I got a smack in the face. I told myself last night that I would hold strong on my $250 target now but that was based on the stock coming back slowly. I had no idea it would bounce back this quick.

So I ask for advise. I don't have a long position on anything. I generally study my investments, play the fluctuations, play news, get in, get out and I'm done with it. I'd like to do the same here however I'm re-thinking my $250 sell target given how quick of a rebound we've seen on an indisputably (so far) down day for the market.

With tomorrow's announcement (assuming it comes after hours) and an otherwise decent day on the market I feel like selling today at $250 with no expectation of news would be a dumb move.

Given my circumstances, what would you all do? I'm thinking of just holding until response to the pre-order announcement. I'm predicting 360,000 - 380,000 pre-orders which I presume the market is going to like.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Look at this! Musk just commented on the high short interest! Wow.
Anyone remember early 2013 and Musk comments on the short interest? We all know how that unraveled.....

Elon Musk on Twitter

@elonmusk what would you say to someone who is shorting your stock? $tsla

Elon Musk: @Brianmrtz probably unwise

lol. Gotta love his dry sense of humor.

 

[Hogfighter]

Looks like the shorts are running out of steam.

 

[tinm]

Fessenheim is not ideal. Also, it's a nuke plant. An old one. Sitting on an active fault zone.

I'm sure Tesla is being inundated with offers of land, buildings, tax breaks, etc, all over the world right about now, for a second auto factory. I'm confident Tesla will choose wisely.