Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[anticitizen13.7]

* Shorter Model X wait times than expected
* Shortest Model S wait times since at least 18 months

This may be indicative of higher production capacity. Shorter wait times are not necessarily bad, as long as the "pipeline" of new orders stays fairly steady.

Too long a wait time is bad for customers. Read Mac Rumors forums whenever a new iPhone is launched. People are pulling their hair out when they have to wait an extra day or 2 because of low stock of a new model.

 

[tanner]

IMO, the S refresh, even with 100 kWh battery, won't boost the stock price in short term. While this is surely good for sales, its effect won't be seen at least until the start of July when Q2 numbers are out. That's almost 3 months away. The news of the refresh/100 kWh will most likely be ignored by the market in the short term. The positive effect will exhibit later in deliveries and financials.

Yes, but it seems like the SP has before been influenced by the prospect of new/exciting times/profit, hence the current market cap.

 

[joseph7h]

Just wait until Elon tweets/people actually cover the news... A lot has happened today, first true S refresh since 2012 and the X configurator is now open.

Tweets are out and the stock is at intraday low!

 

[joseph7h]

Tweets are out and the stock is at intraday low!

BTW, all the gains since model 3 release (3/31) are now virtually gone!

 

[tanner]

Tweets are out and the stock is at intraday low!

Elon has yet to and the only Tweets on TM's Twitter are those pertaining to the X - not even the S.

 

[mejojo]

BTW, all the gains since model 3 release (3/31) are now virtually gone!

What are you talking about? 3/31 opened below 230 and closed at 230.

 

[joseph7h]

What are you talking about? 3/31 opened below 230 and closed at 230.

The opening price on 4/1 is $242.

 

[schonelucht]

This may be indicative of higher production capacity. Shorter wait times are not necessarily bad, as long as the "pipeline" of new orders stays fairly steady.

True, but shrinking wait times are however not compatible with the idea that Tesla is production constrained.

 

[mejojo]

True, but shrinking wait times are however not compatible with the idea that Tesla is production constrained.

Could you please share your data points regarding shrinking wait times over the past year?

 

[aznt1217]

I didn't see the estimated time for delivery on x either.

True, but shrinking wait times are however not compatible with the idea that Tesla is production constrained.

lol this is where our information "arbitrage" comes into play because we have a better grip of the logistics and how things play out with Tesla.

 

[Spidy]

Could you please share your data points regarding shrinking wait times over the past year?

Website wait times for delivery change

 

[joseph7h]

Not sure what has caused analysts changed their estimates on the next 5 year average growth rate to 35% from 101% last time I read it, per Yahoo finance analyst estimates page TSLA Analyst Estimates | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Curt Renz]

True, but shrinking wait times are however not compatible with the idea that Tesla is production constrained.

Being able to ramp up production to eliminate that constraint should be seen as a quite good thing. Such constraint has been labeled by bears as a permanent shortcoming of Tesla. Many people currently in the new car market are those experiencing some car problems. Not being told to wait so long for a Tesla may prevent them from instead quickly picking up a competing product from a dealer's inventory.

 

[Fallenone]

Estimated delivery of a X90D is May. That's a little too fast to my liking. Suppose they can produce and deliver 1000 per week starting 4/1, and May means 5/31. So you have 8.5 weeks in between to deliver 8500 X. Assume all of these are backlog then add the ~3000 delivered so far, we have 11.5k X from the accumulated reservations over the past two years. Conversion rate is about 50%. I hope there's still a lot of reservation holders waiting to see and feel the car in person and confirm the order and pushes the estimated deliver date further down.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator Note:
As an experiment, I posted the prior warning. There is a cadre of S-T enthusiasts who then hit the "Dislike Post" - this includes all the most recidivist of members who have shown by their actions they believe this thread is and by rights should encompass anything regarding Tesla that they wish to discuss.

This attitude is injurious to the TMC forum for two important reasons:

1. It discourages others to participate in the Investor sector because far too much non-investment oriented material makes not only for exasperating reading, but for duplicative material that those who peruse other subforms already have seen in their appropriate venues;

and

2. It constrains those who, week in and week out, participate mostly or even only here from being exposed top the active, cross-pollinating and informative discussions and wealth of experience and viewpoints that other TMC members provide.

To the extent that news coming from or about Tesla Motors really and is truly relevant to S-T - or, in that thread - L-T investments in TSLA, then you absolutely are encouraged to post, BUT then do include your reasons as to why this is so. But - and I hope for the final time as you all are smart enough to know this already:

DO NOT POST MATERIAL THAT IS NOT RELEVANT TO INVESTMENT DISCSUSIONS IN THE "INVESTOR" SECTOR.

Stop being lazy.

 

[Gerasimental]

It is absolutely fair to assume that announcing a new product, or a significant change to a product, is relevant information for an investor in a company. It may not affect the share price today (although it might have) but is 100% relevant information and needs to be known and understood as well as possible to properly assess any decisions regarding one's investments in this company or trades of this stock.

I usually agree that this thread goes too far off topic with extremely long discussions about very narrow and specific issues, but it is absurd to claim that the detailed discussion of today's events is not relevant.

 

[Fallenone]

Yes, but it seems like the SP has before been influenced by the prospect of new/exciting times/profit, hence the current market cap.

I think the market needs to see solid short term good news (like good delivery numbers), or jawdropping long term news (like 3 reservation numbers) to really be excited. S refresh is neither.

 

[Papafox]

Anyone else think that our midday dip could have been caused by shorts selling back in, trying to use low volume to push stock down a bit? Shares to short were available on Etrade, when I checked a few days ago.Trading is reversing nicely at moment.

 

[uselesslogin]

Honestly doesn't this look like Q1 2013? I mean they didn't make the short wait times public but a lot of people were getting their cars way faster than expected. Then the fence sitters started seeing the positive reviews and jumped in. I guess we'll have to see how early the wait time bumps into Q3 because from here we should see it get longer with the refresh being out.

 

[Curt Renz]

There is a cadre of S-T enthusiasts who then hit the "Dislike Post"

I thought that I reasonably responded to your preceding post. I did not give your post a dislike. My post received 9 likes, and from you I received the only dislike that I have ever received as far as I can recall. I would have thought that a moderator would have appreciated learning about a long-time member's preferences, even if he did not share them.

I stated my preference to be alerted in the investment thread about matters such as upgrades that could affect the share price. In this case the lack of a 100 kWh option may have sent the share price downward. I don't have time to frequently peruse all of the car buyer threads to learn about breaking news. Quick heads-ups are more important to investors than car buyers.

I agree that news about car upgrades and some other matters can be overly discussed here. But as I stated in my post which you disliked, "At the very least investors in this thread want to be notified of any model upgrades." Such notification can then motivate participants in this thread to check out the car model threads.

Undoubtedly moderating is a time consuming and thankless job. I appreciate your dedication to improvement of the message board. Thank you. But please understand my hoping that as a moderator you welcome my well considered comments, even if you disagree with them.