Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

When Adam Jonas inevitably queries Elon about autonomous urban transports at the Q1 ER, could you imagine his new price target if Elon actually answered the question (not going to get an answer, though)? Jonas might piece together available info and and unveil a new thesis all the same. Many of us thought he was nuts by pushing so hard to explore a future Tesla Uber-type business with autonomous vehicles, but now such a notion seems very plausible.

 

[AlMc]

For those that follow it: Option Max Pain for today: $247.50.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla has officially shipped a 300-mile-range car. And that's EPA... not NEDC.

Official EPA Ratings For Refreshed Tesla Model S - 90D Range Is 303.2 Miles Highway

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla has officially shipped a 300-mile-range car. And that's EPA... not NEDC.

Official EPA Ratings For Refreshed Tesla Model S - 90D Range Is 303.2 Miles Highway

That's really remarkable and a testament to Tesla's prowess - now I want a new nose on my P85!

Surely less drag will improve the 0-60's too, no?

 

[Hogfighter]

I know most of you must think I sound like a broken record, but I don't see them making their delivery target for 2016. Follow me through here:

(a) Low end of deliveries for 2016 is 80,000 (80,000 to 90,000 was guidance)

(b) Q1 deliveries was 14,820

(c) Remaining year delivery requirement to reach guidance is at least 65,180 (a-b)

(d) Second half 2016 delivery number requirement (26x1,800) - 46,800

(e) Therefore, Q2 delivery must be at least 18,380 (c-d)

Realize that this is the optimistic scenario to reach the low end of guidance figures. Tesla stated that although their line is capable of producing 2,000 vehicles per week, guidance was that they were targeting to produce 1,600-1,800 vehicles per week sometime in 2016 (so that's why I used the 1,800 figure in line d above). So if they deliver every car that they produce in the 2nd half of this year, at the high end of targeted production rate, they would still have to deliver over 18,000 vehicles in Q2.....a 25% increase from Q1. The X forums are chock full with people stating that their delivery has been pushed back from late April-May to June.

I'm not seeing it happening.

 

[techmaven]

I know most of you must think I sound like a broken record, but I don't see them making their delivery target for 2016.

Two things... we know that there are vehicles in the black hole. If the delay is in some of the final assembly, like door seals and 3rd row seats, the vast majority of the production can still be running at a decent clip. They just end up with a lot more works in progress. Whenever the right parts come in, they finish up those vehicles. That costs more, so there is a hit to the gross margin, but the vast majority of the delayed vehicles are the highest priced vehicles anyways, we might not actually be able to see the gross margin hit from the outside. The other is that any shortfalls can still be made up with Model S demand.

They have also pushed off re-work to the service centers in some cases. Therefore the delivery rates in April can be made up later in the quarter, so it will be important to see where the May delivery rates end up.

 

[tanner]

For those that follow it: Option Max Pain for today: $247.50.

Thank you for posting - I'll keep that in mind

 

[Hogfighter]

Two things... we know that there are vehicles in the black hole. If the delay is in some of the final assembly, like door seals and 3rd row seats, the vast majority of the production can still be running at a decent clip. They just end up with a lot more works in progress. Whenever the right parts come in, they finish up those vehicles. That costs more, so there is a hit to the gross margin, but the vast majority of the delayed vehicles are the highest priced vehicles anyways, we might not actually be able to see the gross margin hit from the outside. The other is that any shortfalls can still be made up with Model S demand.

They have also pushed off re-work to the service centers in some cases. Therefore the delivery rates in April can be made up later in the quarter, so it will be important to see where the May delivery rates end up.

So in other words, they will either most likely miss on deliveries, or miss on gross margins. But there's a real possibility that they miss on both.

The only path I see that's viable is that they increase production of the S. It's possible, but I'm not betting that it will be enough to make their numbers this year.

And I'm one of the biggest long term bulls you'll find.

 

[schonelucht]

(e) Therefore, Q2 delivery must be at least 18,380 (c-d)

Counterpoint. They confirmed two weeks ago that Q1 Model S orders where up 45% y-o-y. So Q2 Model S deliveries will be 10k + 45% or 14500. That leaves less than 4000 Model Xs to make your estimated number. Even a very shallow ramp up Q1 (which wasn't without Model X delivery hickups either) to Q2 should allow them to make your magic number.

 

[techmaven]

So in other words, they will either most likely miss on deliveries, or miss on gross margins. But there's a real possibility that they miss on both.

Given the product mix, you might not see a miss on margins - they would be lower than they could have been, but higher than expectations. Likely foreign exchange rates has a much higher effect on margins anyways.

 

[Drax7]

I know most of you must think I sound like a broken record, but I don't see them making their delivery target for 2016. Follow me through here:

(a) Low end of deliveries for 2016 is 80,000 (80,000 to 90,000 was guidance)

(b) Q1 deliveries was 14,820

(c) Remaining year delivery requirement to reach guidance is at least 65,180 (a-b)

(d) Second half 2016 delivery number requirement (26x1,800) - 46,800

(e) Therefore, Q2 delivery must be at least 18,380 (c-d)

Realize that this is the optimistic scenario to reach the low end of guidance figures. Tesla stated that although their line is capable of producing 2,000 vehicles per week, guidance was that they were targeting to produce 1,600-1,800 vehicles per week sometime in 2016 (so that's why I used the 1,800 figure in line d above). So if they deliver every car that they produce in the 2nd half of this year, at the high end of targeted production rate, they would still have to deliver over 18,000 vehicles in Q2.....a 25% increase from Q1. The X forums are chock full with people stating that their delivery has been pushed back from late April-May to June.

I'm not seeing it happening.

I have no confidence in forecast, can't even tell what the weather will be like in 8 days.

more super computer power is allocated to forecasting the weather , and the results
are dubious beyond 5 days

 

[Julian Cox]

Tesla has officially shipped a 300-mile-range car. And that's EPA... not NEDC.

Official EPA Ratings For Refreshed Tesla Model S - 90D Range Is 303.2 Miles Highway

Boom !

 

[Julian Cox]

I have no confidence in forecast, can't even tell what the weather will be like in 8 days.

more super computer power is allocated to forecasting the weather , and the results
are dubious beyond 5 days

A Weather Prediction Supercomputer has no control over what the weather will be. It can't put additional effort and resources into meeting a prediction of sunshine on July 4th if it spots some difficult clouds on the horizon. Big difference in forecasting power.

 

[Julian Cox]

@Julian Cox curious, have you been checking the X sub forum lately. Production throughput seems to have gone down quite dramatically. There are a number of posts in many threads indicating that. Wondering how that changes your timeline in terms of once-in-a-lifetime trade.

I think the Model X program and the concern about the Model X program are both on a nominal trajectory thesis wise.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Anyone else notice changes to the Tesla Homepage? It now says "charging" instead of "supercharge" and "energy" instead of "tesla energy" you can now configure powerpacks online and get a quote. It also mentions that powerpacks can be for "large homes" ... Now back on topic.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Pretty erratic first hour trading today. I think that it might be a result of Tesla updating their Energy page, with some pricing information, including $470/kWh for an order of two PowerPacks.

I think that it is reasonable to assume that Tesla's pack level cost is actually about $250kWh. So this seem to be an indication that based on the demand situation Tesla Energy is confident enough to gun for a whopping 88% gross margin.

Something tells me that this is a developing story...

 

[replicant]

Anyone else notice changes to the Tesla Homepage? It now says "charging" instead of "supercharge" and "energy" instead of "tesla energy" you can now configure powerpacks online and get a quote. It also mentions that powerpacks can be for "large homes" ... Now back on topic.

More details:
All Discussion re: Tesla Motors Website & Forums
Tesla opens direct orders of up to 54 Powerpacks and reveals pricing

 

[MitchJi]

Counterpoint. They confirmed two weeks ago that Q1 Model S orders where up 45% y-o-y. So Q2 Model S deliveries will be 10k + 45% or 14500. That leaves less than 4000 Model Xs to make your estimated number. Even a very shallow ramp up Q1 (which wasn't without Model X delivery hickups either) to Q2 should allow them to make your magic number.

Also Hogfighter used 1600-1800 per week which is their guided average. Max production per week is 2k. I'm not saying that they will make it, just pointing out that there is a possible path.

 

[tanner]

Pretty erratic first hour trading today. I think that it might be a result of Tesla updating their Energy page, with some pricing information, including $470/kWh for an order of two PowerPacks.

I think that it is reasonable to assume that Tesla's pack level cost is actually about $250kWh. So this seem to be an indication that based on the demand situation Tesla Energy is confident enough to gun for a whopping 88% gross margin.

Something tells me that this is a developing story...

Makes sense, I got in at a couple good times, let's hope it's green from here

In regards to the price per kWh, wasn't that exactly what Elon quoted previously? Seems fantastic that they're on track!

 

[sub]

I know most of you must think I sound like a broken record, but I don't see them making their delivery target for 2016. Follow me through here:

(a) Low end of deliveries for 2016 is 80,000 (80,000 to 90,000 was guidance)

(b) Q1 deliveries was 14,820

(c) Remaining year delivery requirement to reach guidance is at least 65,180 (a-b)

(d) Second half 2016 delivery number requirement (26x1,800) - 46,800

(e) Therefore, Q2 delivery must be at least 18,380 (c-d)

Realize that this is the optimistic scenario to reach the low end of guidance figures. Tesla stated that although their line is capable of producing 2,000 vehicles per week, guidance was that they were targeting to produce 1,600-1,800 vehicles per week sometime in 2016 (so that's why I used the 1,800 figure in line d above). So if they deliver every car that they produce in the 2nd half of this year, at the high end of targeted production rate, they would still have to deliver over 18,000 vehicles in Q2.....a 25% increase from Q1. The X forums are chock full with people stating that their delivery has been pushed back from late April-May to June.

I'm not seeing it happening.

This is possible but I don't agree at the moment without more data. They could easily be producing cars and setting them aside waiting for parts as was mentioned above. I also refer back to Elon confirming guidance 2-3 weeks ago? He certainly has more insight than we do, no reason to doubt it at this point but something we should keep an eye on.