Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[30seconds]

Here are the January US sales of large luxury SUVs and luxury sedans. The SUV market is about twice as big

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NqyXRPLbUFM/VrTaUIAHZCI/AAAAAAAAw5U/8KuLTVKqEFI/s1600/USA+large+luxury+SUV+sales+chart+January+2016.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4vpolUT8yp8/VmG0nkDuJdI/AAAAAAAAvrk/sAijP8R0hes/s1600/USA+large+luxury+car+sales+chart+November+2015.jpg

 

[Bet TSLA]

All this speculation about Model X demand. People here should be aware that there are vehicles in some showrooms. I went to Palo Alto last week and crawled all over and around the X they had there.

It's a 7-seater. Yes, the rear seats are pretty cramped -- I wouldn't want to put adults in them for long trips. Pretty. But I wouldn't give up my S in trade for an X.

 

[RobStark]

It's a 7-seater. Yes, the rear seats are pretty cramped -- I wouldn't want to put adults in them for long trips. Pretty.

There is more than enough room for 6" 200 lbs adults back there.

What makes it feel claustrophobic is the poor visibility from the third row. The seats are low to fit under the slopping C pillar.

The second row middle seat is only really useful for very small people. I don't know if the middle seat is useful for baby/toddler car seats as I haven't tried to install one.


Delete the second row middle seat option to give the rear passengers and DRIVER much better visibility then six full sized adults can sit inside the X comfortably.

 

[RobStark]

WORLD Top 10 March YTD
1 Nissan Leaf 16.282
2 Tesla Model S 12.420
3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 9.279
4 BYD Tang 9.221
5 Renault Zoe 5.901
6 BAIC E-Series EV 5.583
7 Chevrolet Volt 4.439
8 JAC i EV 4.410
9 BMW i3 3.998
10 BYD e6 3.807

TOTAL 132.343

More Info in Link
EV Sales: World Top 10 March 2016

 

[Bet TSLA]

There is more than enough room for 6" 200 lbs adults back there.

Have you sat in one? I'm reporting my experience. I was cramped in the third row. I'm 5'10" and 160 lbs. I wouldn't put even somebody my size in the third row for a long trip. For around town it's no big deal.

What makes it feel claustrophobic is the poor visibility from the third row.

I didn't find it claustrophobic. I found I had too little room for my legs.

The second row middle seat is only really useful for very small people.

We'll have to disagree there too. I expected the middle seat would be pretty useless for adults, but I sat there and some other guy looking at the car got in next to me and I felt pretty reasonably separated from him. So, surprisingly roomy.

But my advice is that if you are thinking about getting an X that you sit in it with a full load of people and see how it feels. It's definitely weird the way the driver's seat moves when somebody gets into the third row seats, and you should make sure that works for you before you buy.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I found the back seat room to be better than I had expected. I was surprised to be able to stand up to get out with the middle seats moved forward.

 

[RobStark]

Have you sat in one? I'm reporting my experience. I was cramped in the third row. I'm 5'10" and 160 lbs. I wouldn't put even somebody my size in the third row for a long trip. For around town it's no big deal.



I didn't find it claustrophobic. I found I had too little room for my legs.

I sat in one and found the room for my legs to be plenty.

 

[dc_h]

jhm mentioned earlier Powerpack sales. I'm wondering if anyone has any idea or speculation about Q1 sales, if any? We saw shipments in Tilburg in Q1, so I assume there will be some. I've read nothing to indicate that there were a few hundred, or a few thousand. With shipments likely being low: I think the 16,500 may be a fairly good estimate, with Tesla refilling sales channels in Europe and Asia. TE could be a wildcard though, if they sold 3000 Powerpacks, they could have similar profits to having sold over 20,000 cars.
So, down then up could end this week, if TE saves earnings in Q1 and provides a boost to sales estimates for the rest of the year.

Powerpacks at list are $500mm per GW. Could they be on track for 1GW in Q1 or Q2? If TM surprises on the downside, can we get an equal or greater upside surprise from TE?

 

[lango]

jhm mentioned earlier Powerpack sales. I'm wondering if anyone has any idea or speculation about Q1 sales, if any? We saw shipments in Tilburg in Q1, so I assume there will be some. I've read nothing to indicate that there were a few hundred, or a few thousand. With shipments likely being low: I think the 16,500 may be a fairly good estimate, with Tesla refilling sales channels in Europe and Asia. TE could be a wildcard though, if they sold 3000 Powerpacks, they could have similar profits to having sold over 20,000 cars.
So, down then up could end this week, if TE saves earnings in Q1 and provides a boost to sales estimates for the rest of the year.

Powerpacks at list are $500mm per GW. Could they be on track for 1GW in Q1 or Q2? If TM surprises on the downside, can we get an equal or greater upside surprise from TE?

I have not followed TSLA that many reports yet, but to me it seems the exit rate for a quarter is more important than the average (as it should be). So given this if TE is indeed producing and selling powerpacks in numbers then that should be a boost and offset the likely disappointed X average numbers for the quarter.

 

[Seesaw]

WORLD Top 10 March YTD
1 Nissan Leaf 16.282
2 Tesla Model S 12.420
3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 9.279
4 BYD Tang 9.221
5 Renault Zoe 5.901
6 BAIC E-Series EV 5.583
7 Chevrolet Volt 4.439
8 JAC i EV 4.410
9 BMW i3 3.998
10 BYD e6 3.807

TOTAL 132.343

More Info in Link
EV Sales: World Top 10 March 2016

So 14,800 combined S and X

The interesting number is 9600 for March... as potentially production now gears up with the X recalls and parts shortages being resolved.

 

[MitchJi]

jhm mentioned earlier Powerpack sales. I'm wondering if anyone has any idea or speculation about Q1 sales, if any? We saw shipments in Tilburg in Q1, so I assume there will be some. I've read nothing to indicate that there were a few hundred, or a few thousand. With shipments likely being low: I think the 16,500 may be a fairly good estimate, with Tesla refilling sales channels in Europe and Asia. TE could be a wildcard though, if they sold 3000 Powerpacks, they could have similar profits to having sold over 20,000 cars.
So, down then up could end this week, if TE saves earnings in Q1 and provides a boost to sales estimates for the rest of the year.

Powerpacks at list are $500mm per GW. Could they be on track for 1GW in Q1 or Q2? If TM surprises on the downside, can we get an equal or greater upside surprise from TE?

It's a safe bet that they set up the automated production line for either the eventual planned annual output 15 GWh or the first production line which is about 5 GWh. So a hugh number is possible depending on how many cells can they get from Panasonic?

 

[geneclean55]

So 14,800 combined S and X

The interesting number is 9600 for March... as potentially production now gears up with the X recalls and parts shortages being resolved.

That is a pretty incredible number for March. Just imagine if they could keep that up for the remainder of the year.

 

[Julian Cox]

That is a pretty incredible number for March. Just imagine if they could keep that up for the remainder of the year.

I think it is a worthwhile observation that the X customer deliveries that have been delayed do not out of necessity map directly on to delays on the drivetrain, bodyline and paint shop for the X. The reason for pointing this out is that there have likely been instances of batches of almost-finished goods awaiting some part for a minor rework step prior to batch delivery of the whole group. While I guess the main lines are throttled for this kind of thing it is not necessarily the case that they have been - or have been significantly. 6000 Model X built and waiting for a minor part swap-out before bulk shipping 6000 cars is quite a different picture of the world than 6000 Model X never having started production due to some minor part delay. (6000 cars is just for illustration purposes, not an idea or even an estimate how many have been actually held in this state or similar - but its probably not zero and it could be a significant number).

 

[Lump]

Here you go Julian.

 

[30seconds]

Just in case anyone is really bored and needs a single source for all the bear arguments as well as to watch an in-process melt down

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Deception: Stanphyl Capital

 

[sub]

TSLA must have had a couple down days in a row, I see its brought the Bears back into the thread to crow.

 

[Seesaw]

TSLA must have had a couple down days in a row, I see its brought the Bears back into the thread to crow.

I think it's just part of the territory where everyone has a vested interest.

Be interested to the market reaction to the 14,800 figure. Also curious if Tesla will discuss the strongly rumoured Chinese factory in Nanjing.

On the surface you would think that 14,800 could disapoint but very strong March figures (9800) an update to the number of 3 reservations, current weekly production numbers and potential overseas factory could push the price the other way. Who knows...

 

[EinSV]

TSLA must have had a couple down days in a row, I see its brought the Bears back into the thread to crow.

Well, most of these "bears" have been fully occupied spreading FUD on the Model X forums, chiming in like a deranged Greek chorus every time someone posts a quality problem. Now that the quality issues have calmed down, they need something to keep them busy.

So the bears' reappearance on this forum is actually a very bullish sign.

 

[geneclean55]

I think it's just part of the territory where everyone has a vested interest.

Be interested to the market reaction to the 14,800 figure. Also curious if Tesla will discuss the strongly rumoured Chinese factory in Nanjing.

On the surface you would think that 14,800 could disapoint but very strong March figures (9800) an update to the number of 3 reservations, current weekly production numbers and potential overseas factory could push the price the other way. Who knows...

This is old information so shouldn't be any adverse reaction to that. The 9800 number for March is new. At the very least it shows that the factory is capable of turning it up when they need to. Comments on the model X threads suggest the factory slowed down/stopped production for a few days in early April and was followed by lengthy post-production quality checks so they may need another activity burst to get back on track.

Again, on the model X threads, there are hints that this is currently the case.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well, most of these "bears" have been fully occupied spreading FUD on the Model X forums, chiming in like a deranged Greek chorus every time someone posts a quality problem. Now that the quality issues have calmed down, they need something to keep them busy.

So the bears' reappearance on this forum is actually a very bullish sign.

and...

When Elon tweets a lot, I think he is not terribly busy.

i.e.--QC issues going down.

Nice!