With world wide production just starting, I don't think there is a problem with Model X demand. I think they are running through the current US backlog, but problems aside, the reviews are excellent and I believe US demand will only grow. The only problem I see right now is with production and quality control because of door latch problems and other issues. I hope they have found solutions to the problems and are applying fixes as we speak. I hope that is the reason deliveries seem to have slowed down with long factory QC times this month. I will post when we finally get our car, and if I learn anything else about current and future delays.
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OK thanks - well I definitely appreciate one thing you said. I definitely don't care which gal or guy in the room myself included has the right answer to anything so long as I end up believing the one that got it right
. I can think of good answers to all of your questions and they are all consistent with the idea that Tesla does not need to do any work to extend the waiting line for Model X.
I can tell you for my own sake that I think the Model 3 is seriously cool but I am much more interested personally in S or possibly the X some time this year. Just as a point sample of one, one of the reasons I don't have a reservation for either is that the X has confused me to the point of needing to sit in one to choose. The S I could have ordered online from my desk if it wasn't for that confusion and ordering both from my desk to resolve the issue is, well let's just see what happens
. In any case, I wouldn't worry too much about cannibalization. Many people appreciate larger cars and are willing to pay the difference, I'm one of them.
So they roll out an updated version and bump the price up, and a few days later you say demand problem? You can't be serious.
mmd
Active Member
Model X is not an SUV. Some call it a station wagon. IMO, it is a CUV without a folding second row and roof rack. What I'm reading also, is the 3rd row is only good for kids. Any idea of the size of luxury CUV market of this category with ASPs of more than $100,000?
On ST topic: Do we have a thread for Q1 ER or is this it? In Q4, I predicted the revenue within $1M. Thinking how to play this ER.
Q4 2015 Earnings prediction
On ST topic: Do we have a thread for Q1 ER or is this it? In Q4, I predicted the revenue within $1M. Thinking how to play this ER.
Q4 2015 Earnings prediction
Come on, haven't you taken any business classes? A price hike is the surest signal of falling demand!' /s
BTW, if you have been around these forums long enough you should know maoing. We love him, he is a great contributor, but can be super bullish to super bearish in the span of 30 seconds. He is alright, just probably forgot to take his lithium this morning.
JK aside, I think it is fair to say, that just because the S and the X share part of the E2E assembly line, it doesn't mean Tesla can just dynamically move the needle between 0 to 2000 of either model any given week. The line is roughly set.up to 1k for each car per week and while they can shift production between these, it's not at the flip of a switch. Also, parts ordered in advance may play a role as supplier lead times must be taken into consideration if you were to go to e.g. 1.5k S a week. Car manufacturing is usually "Just in time", so there is no endless stock of every part in the back of the plant.
PS: as long as as production/demand beats A8, BMW 7 Series and in some cases Mercedes S, talking "soft demand" can only be interpreted as a joke.
I really like the idea, but any power loss multiplied by (eventually) 1 billion EVs is a scary thought.
I just noticed the same thing about Model X buyers while browsing the X threads: the buyers tend to be tech-savy guys. I'm thinking there must be some gals who don't identify themselves as females and prefer to leave their sex anonymous on the forum. We assume they are guys. That said, soccer moms aren't typically buyers of cutting-edge technology that isn't advertised. They're not first adopters, not that adventurous. The potential biggest market for this product will gravitate towards it when 1) Model X vehicles start being noticed at schools, work places, or at shopping/dining locations, 2) when Model X vehicles are available in all Tesla stores for demos and test drives, and 3) when female drivers share their experiences of X with other female drivers. Only then will the biggest potential market for these vehicles start buying in big numbers.
Bottom line: we're still in the early-adopter stage and early-adopters aren't soccer moms, for the most part.
I think it's probably more that the posters on this car enthusiast Internet forum are tech-savvy guys. Case in point: we are waiting for my wife's 75D but I'm the one posting about it on TMC.
No doubt there's much truth to what you say. Consider too that your wife may be getting an X because she learned of it through a tech-savy, first-adopter kind of husband. When more traditional forms of enticing the fairer sex to buy Model X appear, I suspect we'll see a jump in demand for the vehicle.
Well, my tech 'unsavy' wife (whose ICE SUV was to be replaced by the X) indicated we should cancel our SigX reservation because of lack of utility.....Just another single data point. I agreed. Waiting for X2.0 so we are sitting on our PX reservation for now.
As to X demand. I am sure TM has enough demand for 2016/17 that will lead us into the '3' phenomenon.
I also believe that many (>30%) rate of cancellation of Xs due to switching to S (good..higher margins at this point), too long a wait (not good as people bought ICEs), and lack of certain features ( no net effect).
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Actually I am seeing more and more women posting in the X forums as they pick up their cars. Once she gets it she may push you aside and start posting herself. ;-)
I think Elon's 'on the line' at the factory to generally send a message, but perhaps just as importantly in the short term (thread), he's there so that at least by Tuesday of next week they produce 150 deliverable cars in a day. That way, when asked on the earnings call, or perhaps in the shareholder letter, he can say 'Tesla is currently producing at a rate of approximately 750 Model X per week' which is what he/they said about a month ago before we learned of delayed deliveries. He can then say 'We're still on target to hit Model X production of 1,000/week by the end of the quarter' so that then he can say ' We had a QC issue/Supplier issue/Whatever that's been resolved' and people don't freak out.
My hope is they guide to 18K for Q2, because if we believe 2K/week is their max, it lets us get to 80K for the year with a ramp that looks like 14K+, 18K+, 22K+, 26K+ = 80K+
My hope is they guide to 18K for Q2, because if we believe 2K/week is their max, it lets us get to 80K for the year with a ramp that looks like 14K+, 18K+, 22K+, 26K+ = 80K+
And? If you wasted your money on a Cayenne or a top spec Range Rover, Mercedes GLS, BMW X5, Lexus etc etc etc etc then discovered you could have had a Model X instead you would have to feel like a complete fool. What's your point?
With any luck Tesla will use this ER as a sluice gate to flush out any remaining excuses for rational pessimism in order to deliver a crystal clean win on Q2 ER.
IMO they should broadly defend the long term and reiterate Q1 whole year guidance sufficiently not to tank the stock utterly while keeping as much material info powder dry as possible to let the doubters doubt how they will pull it off. Personally I would be looking for a level to down trade - and not to trade it yet.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I believe that Model S orders are unlikely to be affected by the Model 3 reveal because they occupy different market segments.
Model S is a medium to large sedan, and drives like one. It is very powerful, but it definitely has a stable, weighty character. The Model S has both more interior cabin volume and has more cargo volume thanks to the large rear liftback. Also, a buyer who wants a luxury EV today, can get a Model S relatively quickly. Wait times for people reserving a Model 3 today will probably be about 3 years.
Model 3 is a compact sport sedan, like a BMW 3-series. I get the impression that it will drive in a "smaller", more nimble fashion.
People who want the size of a BMW 7 or 5-series, or a Honda Accord, generally do not go for a 3-series or a Honda Civic.
To a certain extent, automobiles, like clothing and accessories, are also used to project something about oneself to others. A Model S, being at a higher price tier and size, communicates a higher degree of wealth and gravitas than a Model 3.
I think Model 3 reveal is likely to affect individual decisions to buy a Model S or not. Some will wait and not buy a Model S because of Model 3, others will buy a Model S that would not have done so it if it was not for Model 3 reveal.
The aggregate sum of this I think is much more likely to be positive than negative.
There is also this video:
that shows how much smaller the 3 is, and there is also the Model S facelift and tax credits to be had right now for anyone that gets a Model S.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Thanks for laying out some good questions, I have some thoughts on the "≡Sborne" Effect cannibalism concern...
If you cause the "battle" in a car buyer's mind to be Buy An S vs. Wait For A ≡, the "war" has been essentially won already. They are now aware not only of Tesla Motors but putting thought into which Tesla to buy.
Impact: Positive
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Or maybe they'll have enough information to create a crystal clear win now?
Or possibly between Q1 and Q2?
Been through all that what must be a hundred times in a hundred ways since December. Nothing unexpected has happened since the last time or actually in all fairness since the first time. Would you like me to change my opinion at random and for no good reason just to spice things up a bit?
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