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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I think that the effect of the switch to 75kWh battery is not in increase of the sales, but increase of the gross margin on the low end by at least 2%. (consider $3K price increase vs. 5kWh X $190/kWh = $950 cost). This can't possibly be a bad piece of news...

Looks like from this thread that 75 kwh is already built in to 70kwh Model S's, upgradeable by firmware upgrade for $3250. That would indeed increase their GM.

Slipping Delivery Dates for Model S
 
Regarding the earlier report of new Autopilot hardware and pedestrian alert. It is downgraded to "unlikely".

Report: Tesla to introduce new Autopilot hardware and pedestrian alert to the Model S [Update: unlikely]

Ohhh. That's a pity. Well it will show up anyway before too long. Either way this not a focus for short term SP movement. Mostly I am excited about this as a consumer because I want a Tesla with that stuff on it although I have to say I would prefer it listened for audible signs of pedestrians rather than making warning sounds besides hitting the horn if necessary.
 
I agree.
But there might just as well be a black swan at anytime. E.g. Elon leaves TM to dedicate his efforts elsewhere, considering the job done.

In other words (to simplify the fanciness of Julian's post - I like it, but it can be hard for some to understand), the white swan event that Julian suggested (or some form of it) has a real chance of coming true based on the fact that Tesla has already put it out there about the importance of the China market and wanting to build cars there in the foreseeable future. While your black swan event has less than zero chance of happening based on the fact that Elon has been very explicit about his intentions. He's not leaving Tesla to its own devices, ever. He may leave the CEO position once the ultimate goal is well-established, but not being around at all doesn't happen until he's on his way to Mars to finish out his life.
 
Pretty well, since by then, Model 3, Model Y, and PowerPack will be shipping, and new product lines may be coming out. We'll be pissed off that "people are still buying those ancient Model S/X lines" instead of gearing up for the new conference room on rolling wheels pods or whatever (I was intentionally obtuse because we don't know the new product lineup). It will be a welcome end of growth.

I should of said "consumer demand growth". I think that Tesla can always make a fleet sale of Model X to Uber/lyft type service. This type of sale would be an excellent promotion to show off the vehicle in upscale markets.

But I think there is a risk in perception in demand slacking between now and the Model 3 release. Tesla sells a boatload of M/X each quarter. But the market expects more and more.

I do expect sweeteners like the 100kwh pack. I also expect Musk to increasingly bring attention back to Tesla Energy. But I'm not sure anything but booming M/X sales between now and the M3 release will keep the market happy.

Tesla configured the MX for China. China is disappointing.
 
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