Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

I think that I posted the first negative comment about this.

Three things:
Do you really think that 6-7 months after the launch this is a good thing?

Do you think this will move the SP up (implied in the OP)?

Right now it might be the best solution but wouldn't it be better if Elon could use his time doing something else, like planning the M3 ramp?

Elon doing QA job is a bad thing. For good quality, we need good processes and metrics (specs), not an extra QA engineer who also happens to be the CEO of 3 different companies This can only be a severe bottleneck. Those rush deliveries at quarter ends are never good for quality. Overworked workers means more lapses.

 

[2Pearls]

I don't know man, the market is spastic. I haven't really seen any ER result in that small a move this earnings season. I'm existing at least 5% either way and probably down.

Tanner, people are being hard on you, but you asked a question that was basically "what have you people been taking about the entire last week". I don't expect a rise to answer your question, so if you are in shares possibly hold longer term (they will go green eventually), if you are in options then I'm sorry for your losses.

People are being hard on Tanner because almost every day, he asks the same questions. Are we going up? What will happen today? What would you do based on what you are hearing in the market? No one can really answer these questions but, we can hopefully hedge our bets based on what we read in these forums. There is a wealth of talent here giving bull thoughts and bear thoughts and you have to use your own judgement and make the best decision you can make. If someone on here knew the answer, they would not be here. They would be on their own private island with massive amounts of wealth. If you are under water with your TSLA stock and are worried, you should not have bought in the first place. Do not buy stock or options if you cannot afford to lose it. This forum has been telling him this all the time, but he keeps asking the same questions...so, that is why people are hard on him. If you are under water...make a judgement call. If you feel TSLA will be higher 1 year from now and, you can wait that long, stay in and don't look at the stock for a year. If you cannot afford to lose what you have in right now, sell and cut your losses and walk away. AND, Learn from this! It really is that simple. Most important. READ everything that is written here and make your best judgement. No one here really has a crystal ball...if they did, it would be insider trading.

 

[hoang51]

...The trick is in the trading portion. Pay great attention to technical indicators and charts. Buy low sell high. When you are not sure about the direction, trade with SMALL size.

There are many trading schemes. For swing trade, first make a trading plan, assume a much lower level is coming, then gradually add on the way down BASED ON YOUR PLAN. Don't get too excited and suddenly get all in, only to see it drop another 30% in a few weeks. You can start to buy on the way down, start with 1% of your trading money, then add another 2% if it went lower, then another 5%......

I know those may be arbitrary numbers for some, but to make sure that some new traders understand: pay attention to the fees/commissions that your broker charges for you buying and selling stock. I say this because for an example, if you only got $1,000 total and trading 1-2% of the total doesn't make any sense if the fees/commissions is almost worth as much as the allotment. So for those who don't have a truck load of money, invest more wisely.

 

[JRP3]

Right now it might be the best solution but wouldn't it be better if Elon could use his time doing something else, like planning the M3 ramp?

It's great we have a CEO capable and willing to roll his sleeves up and solve problems in person, it's terrible that he has to.

 

[Julian Cox]

It's great we have a CEO capable and willing to roll his sleeves up and solve problems in person, it's terrible that he has to.

Maybe. It depends what he's actually trying to solve. I struggle to believe that it is inherently that much more difficult to make a Model X than it is to make a Model S. It is after all an assemblage of car making parts - and it is not like any of the issues that have come up are related to anything particularly EV-centric either. Computers and drive train seem to be consistently fine.

My suspicion is that with the X he is pushing some novel method of making cars that is worth solving. Like for example automating some normally labor intensive task which is extremely difficult to automate but delivers some breakthrough cost reduction. There is perhaps more to this X than meets the eye in relation to Model 3.

Very hard to believe that this is just about dialing in the basics of staff training and management with nothing else of value being sought - could be wrong about that. Just a thought of limited trading significance.

 

[JRP3]

I struggle to believe that it is inherently that much more difficult to make a Model X than it is to make a Model S.

Seems obvious that it is. Double hinged doors are more difficult to align and seal, doors with sensors and auto close/open mechanisms are more complicated and prone to errors, as we are seeing. Not to mention that Elon has in fact said it's more complex.

Musk had already claimed that the Model X was "the most difficult car in the world to build."

But at the launch, he went further.

"I'm not sure anyone should have made this car," he said at a press conference just hours before the first Model Xs were delivered to VIP customers.

"We probably should have just [modified the Model S]," he added. "There are so many more features and difficult to build parts on [the Model X] than it is necessary for us to sell the cars."

Elon Musk: The Model X is so advanced we probably shouldn't have built it

 

[lango]

Maybe. It depends what he's actually trying to solve. I struggle to believe that it is inherently that much more difficult to make a Model X than it is to make a Model S. It is after all an assemblage of car making parts - and it is not like any of the issues that have come up are related to anything particularly EV-centric either. Computers and drive train seem to be consistently fine.

My suspicion is that with the X he is pushing some novel method of making cars that is worth solving. Like for example automating some normally labor intensive task which is extremely difficult to automate but delivers some breakthrough cost reduction. There is perhaps more to this X than meets the eye in relation to Model 3.

Very hard to believe that this is just about dialing in the basics of staff training and management with nothing else of value being sought - could be wrong about that. Just a thought of limited trading significance.

It is possible that some manufacturing innovations have caused this but I think a more likely scenario is that the timeline was just unrealistic from the start and there have been many small problems rather than a few big ones to correct. The first signature cars errors were basic like misaligned trunk panels, adhesive residues and bad stitching for the seats for example. Then they shut down and corrected and continued to iterate. Those pauses have been shorter and shorter and the exponential curve intact and the most recent one was just completed.

To me it seems like an open beta which is quite bad for the early adopters but in the end it probably saved money and time.

 

[dc_h]

I imagine he is there not to oversee line workers, but perhaps to look for process changes. Specifically more automation of the falcon door assembly. It seems like assembly is much better, but he was not happy with continuing problems showing up at or after delivery. Bummer? Yes, but same Elon-attitude that kept the company running through the roadster and S.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think that I posted the first negative comment about this.

Three things:
Do you really think that 6-7 months after the launch this is a good thing?

Do you think this will move the SP up (implied in the OP)?

Right now it might be the best solution but wouldn't it be better if Elon could use his time doing something else, like planning the M3 ramp?

I think where we disagree is that you say the situation os so bad that Elon has to personally attend to it. I don't think that's the case. I am sure Tesla has capable engineers, but maybe management is making them step up production at a rate the workforce can't keep up with.

i think Elon is there because he wants to personally understand, feel, touch, experience the manufacturing processes and issues and the QC process to see how they miss these at final check.

 

[mrdoubleb]

OK another topic that may impact the ER:

The massive warehouses they started to rent, plus the job fair this weekend. Connected? Coincidence? I am uncertain whether they will offer any information on these - originally Lathorpe wasn't discussed either until someone asked on the CC.

However this does point to something major going on. A few guesses:
- Big manufacturing push for TE
- Big production increase for X
- Some new product line we don't know about yet
- Plans to gear up for earlier than expected M3 release making them vacate storage areas at Fermont (someone said this earlier, but i think that's too early)

 

[schonelucht]

I would think/hope that the introduction of the 75D model S makes a bit of a positive splash on the stock price. Unfortunately the news got out through a government agency instead of on Tesla's schedule so that may mean a bit of a missed PR opportunity.

 

[MitchJi]

I think where we disagree is that you say the situation os so bad that Elon has to personally attend to it. I don't think that's the case. I am sure Tesla has capable engineers, but maybe management is making them step up production at a rate the workforce can't keep up with.

i think Elon is there because he wants to personally understand, feel, touch, experience the manufacturing processes and issues and the QC process to see how they miss these at final check.

Sounds like a different way of saying the same thing.

OK another topic that may impact the ER:

The massive warehouses they started to rent, plus the job fair this weekend. Connected? Coincidence? I am uncertain whether they will offer ansy information on these - originally Lathorpe wasn't discussed either until someone asked on the CC.

However this does point to something major going on. A few guesses:
1. Big manufacturing push for TE
2. Big production increase for X
- Some new product line we don't know about yet
- Plans to gear up for earlier than expected M3 release making them vacate storage areas at Fermont (someone said this earlier, but i think that's too early)

1. Definitely not.
2. Highly unlikely.

 

[Fallenone]

OK another topic that may impact the ER:

The massive warehouses they started to rent, plus the job fair this weekend. Connected? Coincidence? I am uncertain whether they will offer any information on these - originally Lathorpe wasn't discussed either until someone asked on the CC.

However this does point to something major going on. A few guesses:
- Big manufacturing push for TE
- Big production increase for X
- Some new product line we don't know about yet
- Plans to gear up for earlier than expected M3 release making them vacate storage areas at Fermont (someone said this earlier, but i think that's too early)

I think the "massive" job fair would be about producing S/X in the coming months. It shouldn't be TE related since TE is now produced in GF, which should be hiring NV residents, not CA ones. It could be the case that they finally figured out the ramp-up of X with little quality issues and ready to truly mass produce them. It may be a little too wishful thinking on my side but combining this job fair and indications of a lot of S orders (letter in early april, inside EV estimates) I think there's even a slight chance for them raising the guidance for 2016.

 

[Papafox]

I would think/hope that the introduction of the 75D model S makes a bit of a positive splash on the stock price. Unfortunately the news got out through a government agency instead of on Tesla's schedule so that may mean a bit of a missed PR opportunity.

The 75kwh battery is a really intelligent improvement for the Model X (vs. a 70 battery), but the upgrade from a 70 to a 75 kwh battery in an S is a ho-hum moment for most Model S buyers because the 70kwh battery already offers 240 miles range, which is really the sweet spot for economy long-distance travel in the U.S. between superchargers at the moment. For this reason I don't see much effect the 75kwh battery will have upon S sales and therefore upon the stock price.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think the "massive" job fair would be about producing S/X in the coming months. It shouldn't be TE related since TE is now produced in GF, which should be hiring NV residents, not CA ones. It could be the case that they finally figured out the ramp-up of X with little quality issues and ready to truly mass produce them. It may be a little too wishful thinking on my side but combining this job fair and indications of a lot of S orders (letter in early april, inside EV estimates) I think there's even a slight chance for them raising the guidance for 2016.

Fair point on NV vs CA.

 

[schonelucht]

While it's true that the difference between a 70 and a 75kWh may not be earth shattering for a consumer, it does show that Tesla is not done innovating in their battery tech. Maybe I am running ahead of myself here, but with recent advances in battery costs, Tesla should be able to deliver a 75 at essentially no extra cost than a 70 and still make its target margins. That's something that should please shareholders.

 

[mrdoubleb]

The 75kwh battery is a really intelligent improvement for the Model X (vs. a 70 battery), but the upgrade from a 70 to a 75 kwh battery in an S is a ho-hum moment for most Model S buyers because the 70kwh battery already offers 240 miles range, which is really the sweet spot for economy long-distance travel in the U.S. between superchargers at the moment. For this reason I don't see much effect the 75kwh battery will have upon S sales and therefore upon the stock price.

i agree. While it may pull in some people who can't afford the 90D, but were on the fence about the range of the 70, it may also make some of those who wanted to stretch to the 90 (financially) downgrade to the 75. The net effect is probably negligible.

However, the move is a big inventory / pack production efficiency play, getting rid of one of 3 SKUs.

 

[Johan]

i agree. While it may pull in some people who can't afford the 90D, but were on the fence about the range of the 70, it may also make some of those who wanted to stretch to the 90 (financially) downgrade to the 75. The net effect is probably negligible.

However, the move is a big inventory / pack production efficiency play, getting rid of one of 3 SKUs.

The timing of the introduction of 75kWh Model S is probably decided simply by their inventory if 70 packs. That is they likely haven't built any 70 packs in the last few weeks and they're just selling of their inventory. Now all 70 packs have been ordered and those orders have locked in so the 75 pack gets announced for Model S. It isn't some timing play that has anything to do with ER or short term stock price. It's all part of Tesla's philosophy of continuous and gradual iterations.

 

[RobStark]

Sales advance 3.5% on fatter deals, truck volume; SAAR rebounds to 17.42M

So far Model 3 deposits are not cratering demand for legacy automakers in the US.

All them just might see 2017.

 

[JBRR]

"New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit (CleanTechnica Exclusive)"

New Tesla Model S Has 2nd Triple Cam For Autopilot & Pedestrian Noise Unit (CleanTechnica Exclusive)