Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Seesaw]

And the big uptick in S orders were pre-refresh as well....

 

[sunhelm]

I'm happy for the money I've just made.. However, hearing 500k in two years. It left a rather queasy feeling in my stomach.. I love the vision.. I greatly fear the outcome.

What if this really was their plan all along, a refreshing approach to over-deliver for once? It may not have been good timing to disclose it until now. Now is crucial as clearly we want this and clearly they know from building the working prototypes that this is doable and that they are holding their suppliers accountable in order to meet this goal.

 

[sunhelm]

Because he has a history of accurately forecasting sales? In Musk-speak, this translates to 75K units, which would still be good. But you can hardly claim he hits his numbers or his release dates.

You are again mixing terminology here. Demand is not equal to sales.

Demand is always there however, the delivery part, hence the sales (or revenue) has been challenging for many reasons, mostly outside of EM's control.

 

[30seconds]

Because he has a history of accurately forecasting sales? In Musk-speak, this translates to 75K units, which would still be good. But you can hardly claim he hits his numbers or his release dates.

He doesn't need to and I don't know why anyone would think that what Tesla is doing is particularly easy to forecast. The growth trajectory is fine, and like Julian has pointed out, Elon is financing the growth as he goes to minimize the dilution / loss of control.

Close enough, in this case, is a recipe for massive growth. I don't care if they "only" get to 400,000 in 2018 as it will be a huge step up in valuation.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

@electracity, Prismatic cells are best if all you want is the cheapest vehicle possible. If you want the best vehicle at the best price, small cylindrical cells will be king. Battery cells are not scalable, if you increase the size of a cell you will get a decrease in energy density, in power density or in both. You don't just get more of the prior properties. There are many reasons for this but if a bear wants me to spell them out he'll have to pay me for my time, or wait til I have more time.

 

[sunhelm]

You just gotta love the curmudgeonly Wall Street Journal's spin, reflected in their headline for the news:

Tesla’s Losses Widen on Lower-Than-Expected Deliveries

Note they updated the headline from being about the two VPs leaving to being about the gloomy doomy earnings report.

And it's not even new news. Delivery numbers were oh so April 2016.

 

[Seesaw]

500k output for a plant that is already running and has a design capacity of 500k should be very doable. I'm sure even most car plants could get from 0 to full production by then

 

[anon]

What's not stated, but implied: 500,000 cars/year will max out Fremont in 2018, so new factory will need to be finished late 2018/early 2019 to continue increasing production. So construction on the new factory will have to start soon!

 

[electracity]

At some point Tesla mentioned that their optimal battery is a slightly larger cylindrical cell. I have not seen anything other than that.

At one point Straubel seemed to agree with a questioner that the gigafactory would be making a larger cylinder.

I only got interested when it seemed Tesla was feet-dragging at building out the gigafactory.

 

[Johan]

The mother of all production ramps is about to take place in the next two years. Exciting times to be A TSLA investor.

 

[aznt1217]

Bringing up production plans will definitely lead to changes in price targets. It changes the inputs of all the DCF calcs.

 

[electracity]

500k output for a plant that is already running and has a design capacity of 500k should be very doable. I'm sure even most car plants could get from 0 to full production by then

Toyota could. But then again I'm sure the current CEO Toyoda has never needed to be in final assembly checking quality. I aslo can't imagine either the service centers or the superchargers with another 500K cars in a couple of years.

This won't be boring.

 

[techmaven]

@electracity, Prismatic cells are best if all you want is the cheapest vehicle possible. If you want the best vehicle at the best price, small cylindrical cells will be king. Battery cells are not scalable, if you increase the size of a cell you will get a decrease in energy density, in power density or in both. You don't just get more of the prior properties. There are many reasons for this but if a bear wants me to spell them out he'll have to pay me for my time, or wait til I have more time.

There's always been this tension between putting the complexity in the cell production side or the pack production side. Tesla has chosen for cheaper cells and more complicated packs, while it seems everyone else goes for more expensive cells for a less complex/cheaper pack. Is that what you see? Which way do you think will win out?

 

[tinm]

Ok Tesla tea-leaf readers and divinators:

What can you make of the fact that today's on-hold music for the Tesla conference call is country rock, and not the usual classical?

Me, I'd hope they'd eventually move to punk and new wave, but guitars and organs and drums is a big departure from Beethoven and Mozart. Gotta mean something

 

[AlMc]

TM will not be FCF+ for years because of all the money they will need to accomplish these ambitious goals. The bears will use this...Do I care? NO.....Get the $$$ now and get going TM/EM.

 

[dirtyofries]

Squirm Pento, squirm.

 

[2Pearls]

How is the market going to react when it realizes that the S/X have reached the end of demand growth?

Or, put another way, how will the market react when they see that Model S and Model X demand continues to grow! Which it is currently doing quarter over quarter and will continue to grow as more people learn about TESLA and their superior products!

 

[AlMc]

Ok Tesla tea-leaf readers and divinators:

What can you make of the fact that today's on-hold music for the Tesla conference call is country rock, and not the usual classical?

Me, I'd hope they'd eventually move to punk and new wave, but guitars and organs and drums is a big departure from Beethoven and Mozart. Gotta mean something

it means GF2 is in Nashville, TN.

 

[Seesaw]

What's not stated, but implied: 500,000 cars/year will max out Fremont in 2018, so new factory will need to be finished late 2018/early 2019 to continue increasing production. So construction on the new factory will have to start soon!

With the Roadster, Model Y (compact SUV) and Model P (pickup) appearing not to be part of the current 2018 500k output plan. So more capacity will be needed.

 

[tander]

Wow just wow. $391 million, an increase of almost $108 million without counting Model 3! Yeah, demand is not an issue.

Don't want to burst the bubble but if I remember right it just means that the cash is not counted, not that they are not counted at all. So it might be on the balance sheet, but not the cashflows. I'll try and remember my accounting or hopefully they'll clarify on the call.