larmor
Active Member
True, but market forgets that for each MX delivered, there is $$ revenue coming... Is there an ooops, moment coming for the market?
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Because Tesla's stock ticker has not gone straight up in the time frame you defined, the company is bad and Elon owes you an apology, that's what I get from this post.
Thanks for that.
I've got to ask, for both you and jay, why?
It just seems like cheerleading and a bit of emotional distress, but the stock is likely not going very far in any direction anytime soon with a bias to moving lower. To change that will require some form of positive catalyst of which none are currently scheduled until the shareholder meeting, possibly.
Just be careful trading on hope, most of the prior who are seasoned TSLA vets are accumulating at these levels, not looking for 2 dollar gains to sell.
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I agree with your position on his previous posts but imo his response was pretty classy so I think joseph should get the benefit of the doubt on having received the message. Amateurs and newer traders are everywhere, hopefully we can help some of them!
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Hi Joseph, welcome.
Before Tesla began making volume deliveries and the company was on the brink of bankruptcy, TSLA traded in the 30's. When Model S became a hit and the market began believing that this might just be a hit, it traded in the 120-190 range. Now, as they ramp up production even further and have a real shot at becoming a market disruptor, it has been trading in the 200's (with occasional dips into the 100's).
For TSLA to hit the 300's, they have to have a massive amount of revenue....enough to overwhelm their checkbook. In other words, 100k deliveries per year of high-priced vehicles, coupled with Tesla Energy products being delivered in high volumes as well as assurances that the Model 3 will not be significantly delayed, is what is needed to move the stock. Currently we are at the lower end of a trading band of a highly volatile stock.
If you look at any stock in a small timeframe (and 2 years is a small timeframe), you can prove any point you want to make.
Oh, and a little advice....I wouldn't get into it with Johan. That cat's one smart dude.
Much of this thread is holding a decent cash position patiently waiting for it to fall off said cliff (again) so we can make massive gains on the upswing. Much of this thread has also been following this stock and detailed news of the company for a few years now. Make of that what you will.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I remember talking to an investment buddy I had. When we both first started out trading options. We were reviewing our past 3 month's results. I look at his chart that has a very steady slope up and look at him, then said this: "If you can't make money with a chart like that, what does it mean?"
He didn't need me to spell it out, but some people's temperament is not fit for this whole shebang. You can make money on an up chart, you can make money on a down chart and you can make money on a flatline chart. Most people are hell bent on making money with an upward sloping chart because they were only taught one strategy. Buy low sell high. Yet they don't follow that and instead buy high and sell low.
Maybe buy and hold is not for you, but do you have the courage and temperament to try out the other strategies? Don't blame others. We've all lost money. When I lost money, I blame myself for being stupid and vow to never trust whatever it was I trusted. Ge\ot cynical enough so I started making money.
He didn't need me to spell it out, but some people's temperament is not fit for this whole shebang. You can make money on an up chart, you can make money on a down chart and you can make money on a flatline chart. Most people are hell bent on making money with an upward sloping chart because they were only taught one strategy. Buy low sell high. Yet they don't follow that and instead buy high and sell low.
Maybe buy and hold is not for you, but do you have the courage and temperament to try out the other strategies? Don't blame others. We've all lost money. When I lost money, I blame myself for being stupid and vow to never trust whatever it was I trusted. Ge\ot cynical enough so I started making money.
Secret to making money with stocks: Buy low, sell high
... looking at what is likely coming this year for TSLA, this is a low and a buy point
TSLA investors make money on shares held long term, deep-in-the-money leaps bought at lowish prices, and more speculative gambles only when bought at precisely the right time.
Short term call sellers like Fallenone usually make money
Short term call buyers usually lose money.
The easiest ways to lose money? Buy and sell emotionally and speculate with short-term trades on "hunches".
... looking at what is likely coming this year for TSLA, this is a low and a buy point
TSLA investors make money on shares held long term, deep-in-the-money leaps bought at lowish prices, and more speculative gambles only when bought at precisely the right time.
Short term call sellers like Fallenone usually make money
Short term call buyers usually lose money.
The easiest ways to lose money? Buy and sell emotionally and speculate with short-term trades on "hunches".
What kind of strategies do you like for a flat charge? Selling options and collecting premium or are there other great options?
dc_h
Active Member
In the medium term, the only catalyst that will drive the stock is financial and production performance, that is my opinion anyhow. I think all future orders and plans are currently discounted by the market, in large part due to Model X delays. If Tesla produces at least 7000 Model X's and some combination that gets them to around 22,000 vehicles produced in Q2, and are either cash flow positive or non-GAAP profitable, we'll see a huge breakout and increased confidence in the Model 3 plan. Based on X-VIN's and Model S delivery thread, it seems like production should be over 22,000. If Tesla builds and delivers cars now, the market will begin to be more confident about their ability to build cars tomorrow. The reason the value of the stock does not represent future earnings, minus a 3% opportunity cost is because of this skepticism. If the optimists are right this creates a value opportunity.
There seems no point in bashing anyone over conflicting viewpoints. The reality will happen. I think Tesla will be a big winner, but there are a lot of large vested interests who are going to fight them and ramping up from 2300 cars in 2012 to 500,000 cars in 2018 is pretty amazing. If they get close and manage their costs well, your profits will be more important than winning debate points on today's thread.
There seems no point in bashing anyone over conflicting viewpoints. The reality will happen. I think Tesla will be a big winner, but there are a lot of large vested interests who are going to fight them and ramping up from 2300 cars in 2012 to 500,000 cars in 2018 is pretty amazing. If they get close and manage their costs well, your profits will be more important than winning debate points on today's thread.
I think only production results or steps that lead to production results will matter at this point. So I think the market is set up for a surprise on May Model X delivery estimates, assuming InsideEVs provides a realistic estimate. Certainly, by early July we will see where they are with the Model X ramp. Hopefully, we get a better peek of the Gigafactory by the end of June too. I'd love to see the 2nd phase of the Gigafactory start up sometime this summer.
You are needed ASAP in the SCTY thread. Actually if you can time travel back a couple years, do that first.
I'm still expecting a rather high price in SCTY eventually, at least back to the 50-60 range bound it traded in a year ago. Been loading up under 20. Not as much a sure thing in my mind as Tesla, but certainly a high potential for reward. I'll hop go back the thread, I sort of lost it and never went looking after the redesign. Wonder how many pages I should go back and read.
One page. Each page repeats the same point from the previous page.
dc_h
Active Member
It is like a soap opera. Same drama, different day. Even the big reveals leave us waiting for the next reveal/price catalyst.
We are range bound to drifting slightly lower until investors are convinced that TM has the money to back up their very aggressive ramp plans for the model 3. We all know (IMO) that this aggressive ramp will require more money. Whether TM can do this through organic growth which, IMO, it can't OR it gets the funding preferably (IMO) through the issuance of debt or (less optimal choice IMO) underwriting of sale of more stock.
edit: Personally, I liquidated 2/3 of my trading stock to slowly acquire more DITM J17/18 $150 leaps.
edit: Personally, I liquidated 2/3 of my trading stock to slowly acquire more DITM J17/18 $150 leaps.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
A very small data point just from myself: In observing my local Tesla Store (somewhere East of the Mississippi River), there is an entire row of recently transported Model X which look like they are being prepared for delivery. There were also several more Model X scattered around the parking lot and/or plugged into the HPWCs.
What are people observing on the ground at their local stores?
I think the delivery pipelines are finally opening up this quarter, although we won't know for sure until early July how the bigger picture is looking.
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