Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

How long will it take before the market realizes that right now (could change eventually) that GM can't make and sell a car that's competitive with the M3? Right now GM doesn't even understand what that means. They believe that a Leaf or a BEV Prius with a 200 mile range is competitive-compelling . If it was not for Elon and Tesla they might be correct. In other words Elon and Tesla have single handedly raised the bar. Part of the reason for GM's confusion is that they pay so much for batteries that it's hard for them to conceive of adding more features to the Bolt.

FRANKFURT, June 11 (Reuters) - Germany's Daimler will lift the curtain on its much-anticipated long-distance electric car at the Paris Motor Show in October, as the automaker gears up to compete with Tesla Motors Inc's Model X sport-utility vehicle (SUV).

The company will display a prototype of an electric-powered Mercedes car with a 500-kilometre (310 miles) range, Chief Development Officer Thomas Weber said this week in Stuttgart at an event for journalists.

"The structure is ready, the teams are working and the initial results from road tests are coming in quick succession," he said.

Weber did not specify how soon the car would hit the road but said it would be sometime this decade.
<Snip>

 

[DaveT]

Just tweeted by Elon:

 

[hockeythug]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This could be the start of the short squeeze we have all been waiting for. As long as the market turns around on Monday (Macro fears are ridiculous at the moment), there is going to be a huge updraft. What a bunch of BS fear mongering. We could make it all back within 10 minutes of the morning bell as there was surely huge short positions put on today. Congrats to Elon, their hard workers and all the faithful longs out there.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

I just saw that on Twitter.

Knowingly making false statements to NHTSA would also qualify as a federal crime from what I am seeing. The penalty is up to 5 years imprisonment (or 8 years if terrorism is involved): 18 U.S. Code § 1001 - Statements or entries generally

If fraudulent reports about Tesla vehicles are deliberately being made to NHTSA (presumably to attack the company or manipulate the stock price), this needs to be prosecuted. I hope that Tesla gets to the bottom of this and asks the feds to prosecute if necessary.

 

[dakh]

Did anyone look into the current specs on the battery packs? Maybe it's a simple fact that 60kWh pack doesn't have the C rating to support full speed supercharging and would be much slower in 0-60. If the pack really is "C constrained" then it would be a pretty heavy argument for saving money on all the development and certification costs and just shipping bigger packs. AFAIR making the pack itself adds about 30% to finished pack cost and I'd expect it to not change much with pack size. So the savings on cells alone I expect would be fairly small.

 

[Papafox]

Elon's tweet carried weight after hours. Stock has been climbing, and is at 221 at present, following a low of just over 217 during after-hours trading.

 

[dakh]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

So someone made a few mil on this thing between Wednesday and now. Let's see if they'll simply get away with this or will have to give some back in legal fees.

 

[Thumper]

Grassley should get a job. Maybe he could hold some hearing on a supreme court nomineee. What a piece of work!

 

[EinSV]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

There really is not an appropriate "button" for this. No "disgusting" button on TMC. Unbelievable ....

 

[pz1975]

Just got a call from Tesla store in Vancouver. They have changed the Canadian pricing to reflect the true exchange rate with USD for the X. When they set the price, they did it when the CAD was at its lowest but then it rebounded up and they left the X price the same. I (and I am sure many others) decided to hold my reservation until they made the price more accurate (otherwise I would have had to pay $12,000ish CAD more compared to the USD pricing). Now it is using the 1.28 exchange rate of today.

I also asked him about trade-ins and how much the profit margin is on the CPO cars. He said the profit margin is "paper thin". Just an interesting data point.

 

[Johan]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

Keith Vivaneff!

(pause)

(for dramatic effect)

J/k, Keef Wivaneff

 

[Fallenone]

Just got a call from Tesla store in Vancouver. They have changed the Canadian pricing to reflect the true exchange rate with USD for the X. When they set the price, they did it when the CAD was at its lowest but then it rebounded up and they left the X price the same. I (and I am sure many others) decided to hold my reservation until they made the price more accurate (otherwise I would have had to pay $12,000ish CAD more compared to the USD pricing). Now it is using the 1.28 exchange rate of today.

I also asked him about trade-ins and how much the profit margin is on the CPO cars. He said the profit margin is "paper thin". Just an interesting data point.

I'm happy they are even making some profit on CPO cars.

 

[MitchJi]

I was wondering the same thing and came to an early conclusion that they can't meet 80k guidance so they have to drop price to increase demand. And they can't have a battery pack line to do 60kWh so they have to "give away" 15kWh. So I sold 1/3 of my holdings based on this conclusion yesterday morning when I saw the news while I'm still in bed. Later in the morning, I combed through the things I know and came to a different conclusion. This one is a really bullish case on the assumption that they can cut cost by 20% of the parts side in H2, which is not too out of the realm considering production rate will nearly double, and they have been talking with suppliers for quite some time and have Model 3 demand as a potential leverage (give us a discount now, or we'll switch to someone else for Model 3 parts). Here's my though process. Lucky I made a mistake to sell and bought back today around 220.

Congratulations! Good news when you make money on a mistake!

I'm even more optimistic than that. I think that, partly due to the Elon Production Epiphany that they needed to pull a big demand lever.

 

[Fallenone]

Congratulations! Good news when you make money on a mistake!

I'm even more optimistic than that. I think that, partly due to the Elon Production Epiphany that they needed to pull a big deman lever.

Well, I also covered my weekly covered call expired today with strike [email protected] on Tuesday with a 600% loss. So overall I got some realized loss but lowered cost basis this week. Basically even.

 

[kenliles]

I didn't see Elon's final tweet on suspension issue posted,
so here are all 3 in sequential chronology, collected for readers:

1
"NHTSA confirmed today that they found no safety concern with the Model S suspension and have no further need for data from us on this matter"
2
"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"
3
"Would seem to indicate that one or more people sought to create the false impression of a safety issue where none existed. Q is why?"

 

[mmd]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

That's great! I'm trying to search safercar.gov. Getting server error. Was going to check, what Elon means by fraudulent. Is it true that only owners can file a complaint? So 3/40 are genuine complaints? I'm guessing, that this number is what NHTSA told Elon.

 

[hockeythug]

That's great! I'm trying to search safercar.gov. Getting server error. Was going to check, what Elon means by fraudulent. Is it true that only owners can file a complaint? So 3/40 are genuine complaints? I'm guessing, that this number is what NHTSA told Elon.

Anybody can file a "complaint". Hence the fake VIN numbers. The other three were prolly just people saying something broke or had a disagreement with their service center. I visited the complaints site once and that was enough for me. Between the all caps, the walls of text, and the absurdity of the complaints I won't be going back.

 

[Drax7]

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Sad.

This is mind blowing stuff.
The SEC should be notified about stock manipulation .

 

[Papafox]

Kuddos to techmaven, JRP3, and other investor thread regulars for putting in plenty of effort in at the Suspension Problem on Model S thread. Through their efforts, the media heard both sides of the story when visiting that thread. Good work!