Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[eloder]

This is why I never sell Tesla at a loss.

Keep your eyes on the longer term picture, or at least the more medium term picture. X deliveries are likely going to be very strong as the market hasn't un-priced the Model X ramp failures yet, and the Gigafactory is the sleeper story that at some unknown future earnings release is going to explode the stock.

 

[Drumheller]

Niedermeyer firing back, claims he did not start Tesla Death Watch, says more to come: www.breitbart.com/california/2016/06/10/exclusive-automative-blogger-attacked-tesla-investigation-come/

The people posting comments to that article.... THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS!!!

Seriously, if we could power the world with stupidity....

 

[esk8mw]

Niedermeyer firing back, claims he did not start Tesla Death Watch, says more to come: www.breitbart.com/california/2016/06/10/exclusive-automative-blogger-attacked-tesla-investigation-come/

Yeah, he doesn't have an ax to grind or anything! Just a totally innocent, neutral bystander trying to protect us poor souls with the safest car on earth.

 

[esk8mw]

Looks like we will test the 217/215 cap raise area. If we go below this we are headed back to test 203.

 

[Drax7]

I think it is actually very likely he often drives along such roads. But that's not my point. My point is that a full investigation should have left no possibility for such a huge miscommunication with the SC. It should have included an analysis of his driving patterns from the logs which, if done thoroughly, should have left no ambiguity of where he is living and where he is picking his mushrooms for his meals. It also should have included speaking to the guys doing the towing to understand what they saw at the place of the accident which again would have confirmed that there was no house there just a whole bunch of mushrooms..

do you think the spelling of nieidermeyer or whatever is also an issue?

 

[CaliBear1]

Yup. Just saw an email that my entire short-term position sold at ~220.50. I went in big around 208-212 and set trailing stops on the march up to 240. Really was not expecting this big of a fall from this news. Gonna let it rest for a few days.

Well, again, the only upsetting thing should be that we could have bought in at a lower price.

But man, seriously, my luck.

Sold at 220, literally the next day it jumped to 230, then 240.
Bought in at 228, literally the next day it dropped to 219.

The only solace is that when this blows over, the rally upward should be pretty substantial.

Of course it won't be, because I just said that, and we all know by now how fate works.

I had a little dry powder, so set a limit order for an additional 100 shares at 220 early this morning, but didn't believe we'd actually get there, so I cancelled and reset the order at 222. I should have just let the 220 ride. Oh well. The delta is pretty small, especially since I'm buying for the long haul and my average share price is still around 210. I'm a "mini" Ron Baron.

 

[austinEV]

Folks, the truthiness matters for the long term valuation, but in the short term these little freakouts happen. And they don't turn around in *hours*. maybe they should, but its like a 3-5 day cycle on these. Before buying back in I will ask myself "is it done going down?". Until the *daily* chart shows several days of not going down I will start re-adding. That probably means I will miss some upside and I am vulnerable to a white swan day. Take it from a veteran knife catcher, there is no urgency in buying back in. sleep on it a few days.

 

[CatB]

Yeah, he doesn't have an ax to grind or anything! Just a totally innocent, neutral bystander trying to protect us poor souls from the safest car on earth.

Fixed that for you...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Folks, the truthiness matters for the long term valuation, but in the short term these little freakouts happen. And they don't turn around in *hours*. maybe they should, but its like a 3-5 day cycle on these. Before buying back in I will ask myself "is it done going down?". Until the *daily* chart shows several days of not going down I will start re-adding. That probably means I will miss some upside and I am vulnerable to a white swan day. Take it from a veteran knife catcher, there is no urgency in buying back in. sleep on it a few days.

I concur!!!
And yet, I couldn't stop myself from selling some September puts today - hey, it's only human, and there was $20 time-value in them... Gotta tell you, being short puts, so much more comfortable than holding calls, upside limited, but time is on your side.

 

[FluxCap]

We are approaching the Flux Tasty Shares Price at which I will accumulate some more of the best company in the market.

 

[austinEV]

I concur!!!
And yet, I couldn't stop myself from selling some September puts today - hey, it's only human, and there was $20 time-value in them... Gotta tell you, being short puts, so much more comfortable than holding calls, upside limited, but time is on your side.

Thats a good play too. I wish I had margin enabled. when I sell puts the whole amount of cash is locked up to buy the shares. 5 contracts 6 figures locked up. I just got 5 for grins; was in cash anyway.

 

[MitchJi]

With the cheaper 60kwh S and referral program anyone thinking orders could be coming on stronger?

Yes. IMO I think that this is great news. It probably means that they are ramping production of MS-MX due to Elon's production epiphany, plus the Peter Hochholdinger hire. It is also good news IMO that battery prices have declined sufficiently that they can do this without a profitability hit.

I thought this was a good idea. I am the type who holds, and holds, and holds, if I have a loss, thinking, 'its bound to recover'. But after reading this, sold half my SCTY, thinking TSLA will bounce much quicker. Bought a 220 Sept/2016 and a 300 Jan/2018.

Thanks! Just went in with the last approximately 2k in two accounts and bought (seems like easy money- I hope):
2 J17 300's for $5.30 each
1 J17 280 for $8.10

and there goes 220... This is rediculous.

I'm sorry you're not doing well but I'm pleased with the opportunity to load up.

 

[MitchJi]

Folks, the truthiness matters for the long term valuation, but in the short term these little freakouts happen. And they don't turn around in *hours*. maybe they should, but its like a 3-5 day cycle on these. Before buying back in I will ask myself "is it done going down?". Until the *daily* chart shows several days of not going down I will start re-adding. That probably means I will miss some upside and I am vulnerable to a white swan day. Take it from a veteran knife catcher, there is no urgency in buying back in. sleep on it a few days.

I think you're probably correct. I couldn't resist. I think the 3 J18's that I just bought will be green eventually though.

We are approaching the Flux Tasty Shares Price at which I will accumulate some more of the best company in the market.

Would you mind sharing your current "Flux Tasty Shares Price".

 

[Intl Professor]

My instinct as a modestly successful long is the range for TSLA is somewhere between $205 and $250. Since I have no scratch to invest I can't participate right now by acting on my convictions. (When TSLA reached 205 for the first time a few years ago, I thought the SP nosebleed high. Our last purchase was at just under $250 made just after the reveal.) Here we have better instincts for Tesla than the markets, cf. the disconnect with oil prices so well debated by others. I really wish some of you will respond with discussion of what is fair value for Tesla. This is what my bones feel is the case now within that range.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I really wish some of you will respond with discussion of what is fair value for Tesla. This is what my bones feel is the case now within that range.

Anything under $300 is a deal. Under $250 is a sale of a decade. That's my conviction and I'm 180% in, through combination of shares, calls and short puts. I can add few more percents should price fall further.

Having said that, I realize that market doesn't share my conviction and safest bet is to invest in shares with money you don't need for a long while

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Anyhow, I think rest of the day sees modest bounce, as reasonable bears cover after the feist.

 

[hockeythug]

I have CNBC on mute as usual in the background. Damn the Model 3 in silver looks good. I think I'm going to have to go with that color.

 

[esk8mw]

IB Newsfeed says Tesla Revises Customer NDAs. Article is blank, however.

My guess is they just added the language I noted yesterday - specifically carving out disclosure to a governing body. It's amazing how much crap they have to go through over every little thing.

EDIT: I was right. Article now has a sentence: "Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) revised customer non disclosure agreements, according to Dow Jones, citing sources. The revision now makes it clear that reporting safety issues to the NHTSA is not prohibited."

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Yeah, he doesn't have an ax to grind or anything! Just a totally innocent, neutral bystander trying to protect us poor souls with the safest car on earth.

Yes, he is the second coming of Ralph Nader...

 

[Tenable]

CNBC has not been kind today. /sigh