Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Chickenlittle]

Sounds good but... A year ago wasn't the guidance for ending 2015 at an annualized 100K rate? We are not there, more like a 70K rate (17K x 4).

Wrong. Making 17 K does not mean that they made an equal number each week but rather were ramping up each week

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The future has not played out yet. But we are headed for the lower end of the imagined future right now. In 2020, if I posted that they disappoint with only 501000 delivery, by then we'd be betting on a future of $500 or $1000 stock price. It's all relative to the stock price. Like today. Low end of the imagined future is <$230, High end is >$300. This quarter we are not heading for the high end.

Yes, I've been here long, that's why I don't buy into the hype and also do not give TSLA slack for overpromising stuff that they cannot execute. Look around, a lot of long term supporters are changing their tune. I am sure I am not the only one taking the wait and see stance. Anyway, it's not me or people on this forum you need to convince. It's those who do not follow this forum closely that you need to convince. They see guidance was 50k ~52k and result actually come in at ~50k. What will they think?

Not trying to convince anyone. I know the "experts" in this thread have no influence on the share price. Nearly responding to your post if that is allowed

 

[jhm]

Um, guys, check this out, apparently the Model X is WIDE! No, really, it's wider than some other vehicles, massive short opportunity, sell everything now... http://http://seekingalpha.com/article/3787016-tesla-model-x-wider-than-a-hummer-h2-cadillac-escalade-and-ford-fminus-150

 

[Scott Ales]

Um, guys, check this out, apparently the Model X is WIDE! No, really, it's wider than some other vehicles, massive short opportunity, sell everything now... http://http://seekingalpha.com/article/3787016-tesla-model-x-wider-than-a-hummer-h2-cadillac-escalade-and-ford-fminus-150

Yes, I personally inspected two up close Tuesday and it is at least 3-5" wider. A MX was parked directly in front of a MS with the driver's side aligned perfectly. The pass. side was every bit of 5" wider I think. But obviously I don't think it matters much. it didn't bother the Hummer 2 when it came out!

 

[Causalien]

8 ball is probably -0.75%

 

[austinEV]

Show me another auto/large manufacturing company that is growing faster.

Freak out: 1 car on fire
real news: company meets its guidance on shipments.

I have said it before, I will say it again. Mr Market doesn't give a damn about Tesla *ownership* concerns. All the cupholders could disappear overnight and TMC would explode in rage but it wouldn't affect the stock price. Mr Market doesn't care if you are happy with your product. The norway fire is, at worst, an isolated incident. The deliveries are all anyone will care about. +4% tomorrow.

 

[FluxCap]

8 ball is probably -0.75%

Dude - great site!

And thanks for firing up the 8-ball. I'm debating adjusting positions in morning or holding pat for bounce.

 

[Scott Ales]

Ya'll have me jacked up with KoolAid!

Hope you're right and I'm wrong tomorrow. Visions of Sugarplums (SP +) dance in my head!

Good luck everyone.

 

[jhm]

I do wonder if Tesla held back a bit on deliveries because they wanted to set up for a solid Q1. 400 over 17,000 is a nice margin agains last minute delivery hiccups. Is this what we should expect going forward, hitting minimum guidance plus a margin of error so that the company is better positioned for the following quarter? If so, I'm fine with that. I'm mostly interested in hitting 50% growth each year after year. I'd also like to see steady sequential growth.

 

[austinEV]

Thinking about it more, and no offense to the European and Norwegion contributors, Americans are hopelessly geography biased.

SC incident in Indiana : OMG
SC incident in Norway: "norway... what is that again? Is that a fictional thing like in the new star wars? Are we at war with nor- way? I have lost interest already. I want to talk about star wars."

 

[mdemetri]

NASDAQ futures tanking on poor data out of China. This will mute anY positive response to TSLA deliveries and enhance any negative response.

 

[pGo]

I like the results. I will restart selling puts and calls until before earnings.

 

[sundaymorning]

NASDAQ futures tanking on poor data out of China. This will mute anY positive response to TSLA deliveries and enhance any negative response.

"This will?" How about trying "this may" or "this might.." Although I see your logic, there has been countless of times where Tesla bucks the trend. Although I'm curious about tomorrow, I couldn't care any less about its result. This is the perk for being long as appose to short. Good luck to all tomorrow.

 

[mdemetri]

Trading in Chinese markets halted for rest of day after going down ~6%. Could be brutal tomorrow, with TSLA along for the ride.

 

[eloder]

TSLA is now on its last chance to be able to prove that X ramp up can occur in their April release before losing all credibility. Unless they are open to a weekly update of Model X production number.

The 200+ per week production rate though signifies that hand-installed intervention is minimal (and more likely due to extensive QC and not that they can't run the robots all day long). They've already hit the critical ramping point--that is, progressing out of hand-built vehicles for extremely complicated mechanics like the falcon wing doors.

I think the biggest news--by far--is the amount of Model S's produced. Not the X deliveries or ramp, but the S production. Just imagine what that production rate is doing to upend luxury sedan markets around the world.

I'm leaning toward a far more positive reaction because A) We were above $270 before fears about deliveries and the X started up, and B) With the Q3 delivery results and heavy indications of the MX delays, hitting even 50k guidance on the back of the Model S alone seemed extremely far-fetched for your average investor especially given the two guidances going down. It's a crazy year of year and even a crazy quarter over quarter jump. These quarter over quarter jumps are indicating that either Musk is expanding the luxury market world-wide, or he is cannibalizing from several other manufacturers in large amounts.

China will most certainly dominate the market tomorrow though, I'd imagine

I only expect big jumps if Q4 financials are decent or beats though. If not, I'm leaning toward takeoff with Q1 or Q2 financials as many others here are.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Trading in Chinese markets halted for rest of day after going down ~6%. Could be brutal tomorrow, with TSLA along for the ride.

China PMI coming in 48.2 vs expected 49.0 = world coming to an end sell everything.

Yeah. I wouldn't be shocked if markets go green at some point tomorrow.

 

[MartinAustin]

"This will?" How about trying "this may" or "this might.." Although I see your logic, there has been countless of times where Tesla bucks the trend.

Macro worries about a Chinese slow-down several months back is what caused TSLA to drop very briefly to $195. TSLA was very much affected by the macro news out of China. I don't think this will be any different. The overall U.S. stock market will open lower... perhaps it will mostly recover by the end of the day but it will open lower, and TSLA will be affected negatively by this. If a "cool" reception to the on-guidance 2015 delivery numbers would have caused softness, or even a fall, that will exacerbate the drop in the opening for TSLA.

I'll be watching very carefully to make a purchase tomorrow, if the stock is a lot lower than last week's close. (I know I "predicted" $250... but what do I know)

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Delivers 17,400 Vehicles in Fourth Quarter - WSJ

CEO Elon Musk said the company should be at full production of the Model X by the end of March, producing between 1,600 and 1,800 Model S and Model X vehicles per week at the Fremont, Calif., assembly plant.

 

[Blip]

Pre-market sees to be down 2,6% at opening. Doesn't look too bad alle things considered (china, fire and ok deliveries).

 

[justthateasy]

First day of trading and TSLA is down nearly 4% in the low 230s after closing 240, happy new year folks!

 

[Scott Ales]

Feels like the day after the MX launch all over again.

Might just have to accept the reality of low to mid $200s for this year. Everything seems priced in at this point. For the next 30 days at least. All we have for that period are potential downturn drivers like Farraday concept car that will look completely different than the production version years later. Or some other market related calamity like this China issue.

Blah...

Better keep the day job and make some money!