Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Hogfighter]

Many on this thread are making the same mistake again....they announced 17,400 DELIVERIES.......they did not produce that many vehicles. You can't extrapolate production based on deliveries.

And yet again, Elon is pushing back the numbers. Now it's 1,600 to 1,800 per week by the end of March (not 100,000 run rate by end of 2015, not 1,600 to 1,800 by end of 2015,...). If this were the long term thread, I'd be very happy. But short term, this is gonna hurt a little.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Looks like it's a bloodbath all over the world's stock markets today, I wouldn't read too much into what TSLA is doing right now.

Once again it has been proven that the fundamentals are just fine, demand is still growing and Tesla has shown the ability to ramp. Specifically, the X is now ramping from 200 to 800+ per week over the next few weeks/months and should be a quite healthy chunk of Q1 deliveries.

We have a long list of positive catalyst to look for in Q1, starting with the ER in about a month (which should be good based on the q4 deliveries), Model 3 reveal, maybe even start of reservations for 3 and more news on GF1 on or ahead of schedule for the April startup.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yes, I personally inspected two up close Tuesday and it is at least 3-5" wider. A MX was parked directly in front of a MS with the driver's side aligned perfectly. The pass. side was every bit of 5" wider I think. But obviously I don't think it matters much. it didn't bother the Hummer 2 when it came out!

Such a large car will reduce mpg?

 

[stealthology]

Casflow pos. In q1 or q2?
Fully ramping X production to steady state in Q1?
Model 3 reveal and reservations in March?
Potentially another GF announced this year?

Feels like the day after the MX launch all over again.

Might just have to accept the reality of low to mid $200s for this year. Everything seems priced in at this point. For the next 30 days at least. All we have for that period are potential downturn drivers like Farraday concept car that will look completely different than the production version years later. Or some other market related calamity like this China issue.

Blah...

Better keep the day job and make some money!

 

[Buddyroe]

The good news, if there is any, is that the markets are down badly on a day when Tesla would have been down anyway. Had the the markets been fine today, and instead, been down say Friday, we would have been down today on Tesla events/news and down Friday with the market (most likely). So, think of it like this, we're getting 2 down events out of the way for the price of one. What a bargain!

 

[Bobbyducati]

and here we go....

 

[Causalien]

and here we go....

$220 probably.

 

[Scott Ales]

and here we go....

Yeah, sorry Bobby, there was way too much KoolAid going around over the weekend. My positions are at their lowest for the last 12 months. Can't seem to get the timing right anymore. I only have Jan 17s to dig me out now. I seriously don't see anything strong enough to save the Jan or now Mar 16s calls I have.

Sun is shining! That's something good.

:redface:

 

[Julian Cox]

The future has not played out yet. But we are headed for the lower end of the imagined future right now. In 2020, if I posted that they disappoint with only 501000 delivery, by then we'd be betting on a future of $500 or $1000 stock price. It's all relative to the stock price. Like today. Low end of the imagined future is <$230, High end is >$300. This quarter we are not heading for the high end.

Yes, I've been here long, that's why I don't buy into the hype and also do not give TSLA slack for overpromising stuff that they cannot execute. Look around, a lot of long term supporters are changing their tune. I am sure I am not the only one taking the wait and see stance. Anyway, it's not me or people on this forum you need to convince. It's those who do not follow this forum closely that you need to convince. They see guidance was 50k ~52k and result actually come in at ~50k. What will they think?

Just lag time. Tesla made 50K+ Model S deliveries in 2015 - 50.4 with almost no help from Model X. Markets are always over skeptical about cash and effort required to create results and over exuberant about the results as though they appeared from thin air. 2016 is results phase. 2013 was the Model S results phase after the long haul to launch. 2016 Model S results are unmasked from Model X and Tesla Energy spend and there comes Model X and Tesla Energy results too. Market lag time may continue a while longer but there is no valid bearish case. With a three month short-term time horizon as opposed to a seven or fourteen day horizon I would have though 'show me the money' would be an inferior strategy to anticipating the money.

Here's hoping that from Q1 onwards they will return to the under-promise and over-deliver mode of 2013, noting that is way easier to accomplish this with product in production-planning as opposed to guestimating the timelines related to a product with unresolved development issues. With the best will in the world you can't schedule a validated engineering solution on a calendar, you can only throw focus and resources at such issues until the last issue is resolved. I also think they have been sandbagging the extent of Model 3 R&D progress for years (Model 3 Alpha and Beta was signed off on the Q3 2015 SEC filings). MS and MX are essentially test articles for the core M3 technologies including the software architecture - not forgetting the Internationalization, homologation experience as well as sheer road miles datalogged. Doug Field (ex Apple) is the design rationalization guy (design for engineering - key cost reduction mechanism for Model 3). He's been at Tesla since September 2013 and VP of engineering since Oct. 2014. They have also prepped the Model 3 paint shop and at the Barons conference Musk referred to NUMMI as 'full'. I think if anything they are way ahead of the generally appreciated curve when it comes to the long term mission prospects surrounding Model 3 and 2016 will be a payback year. Call it a custom made stock roadshow if you will heading into what will probably be the mother of all fundraisers towards the end of the year on the back of solid MS, MS and TE financials and fist-fulls of M3 reservations. My two cent's worth: Waiting for all this to become obvious would represent a misreading of the opportunity ahead for TSLA. $400 by July. That would be my call.

 

[Hogfighter]

It all has to do with expectations vs. reality. If Tesla estimated 30,000 deliveries in 2014, 45,000 deliveries in 2015, and X deliveries starting in 2016, the stock would be at 350.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm not sure if the delivery guidance and fire was taken neutral or negative considering NFLX is down as much as TSLA and AMZN is also down sharply.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, sorry Bobby, there was way too much KoolAid going around over the weekend.

What are you talking about? It's as if maoing has suddenly inhabited your body and you're making stuff up. There was a general balance over the weekend between people who were quite happy with the delivery numbers, those that weren't at all, and those indifferent. On top of that was the discussion of the fire, which also was fairly equal in its discussion from the highest level of made up negative speculation to the highest level of made up positive speculation and everything in between.

What's happening right now has nothing to do with KoolAid or anything else that went on around here over the weekend. It's a macro event.

 

[Adm]

As Elon will continue to set "impossible" goals, people will react and the shorts will have a field day... maybe 5 field days and than everything will return to normal and the cycle continues.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, underpromise and over deliver. But actually underpromise will help.

 

[Drax7]

amazon down 35, google down 28
how did teslas number affect them ?

wicked correction in growth stocks

 

[jhm]

Oil is up 3%, wholesale gasoline up 4%.
Tesla down 8%, solar down 3%.

Increasingly, I'm getting the impression that traders now trade a negative correlation. With batteries and solar seen in direct competition with oil, bullishness on oil now translates into bearishness on clean tech. There is a certain logic to this, but there was also a certain logic to trading on positive correlation as well. Basically, the market can believe whatever it wants to believe in the short run.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm not sure if the delivery guidance and fire was taken neutral or negative considering NFLX is down as much as TSLA and AMZN is also down sharply.

yeah... It's all odd to me. The problem is "lack of growth" (China). Meanwhile growth stocks are hammered today.

 

[aznt1217]

For a company that isn't supposed to exist since 2012 according to naysayers, delivering 50,580 cars in 2015 is pretty good

What we're seeing right now is the New Years Hangover and knee jerk reaction from the Santa Rally. People are playing it conservatively and raising cash to reassess their asset allocations for the coming year. The big variable for today is the China Market situation where novice investors were not accustomed to circuit breakers and based a vast majority of trades on fear of what government intervention meant for their liquidity and equity.

With that said let's list some facts:

1. Tesla beat their lowest end guidance (just a bit, but it doesn't matter if you win or lose by a mile -- winning is winning)
2. Model X is being shipped and produced (according to management ramp is going according to plan)
3. Inclement weather in the midwest towards the end of 2015 probably affected logistics companies that may have delayed deliveries (and holiday schedules of customers as well)
4. Yes, there was a Norway incident but it's being investigated and seems to be an isolated case
5. Short interest is in the upper 27%+ range as of mid December, so bets against TSLA are increasing (yet again)

 

[Scott Ales]

What are you talking about? It's as if maoing has suddenly inhabited your body and you're making stuff up. There was a general balance over the weekend between people who were quite happy with the delivery numbers, those that weren't at all, and those indifferent. On top of that was the discussion of the fire, which also was fairly equal in its discussion from the highest level of made up negative speculation to the highest level of made up positive speculation and everything in between.

What's happening right now has nothing to do with KoolAid or anything else that went on around here over the weekend. It's a macro event.

It's okay, I absolutely love the cars and the company! I was apologizing to BobbyDucati for dragging him into more calls last week like me. And you are correct that the weekend presentation was well balanced. But when I suggested a downturn for today the response was a solid dose of the drink which unfortunately didn't pan out.

I'm not at all down on the company or what is happening. AT ALL! Just my crappy sophomoric trading decisions! Don't mistake my tone as a bear convert please. I actually convinced a friend yesterday to buy a CPO Ms at lunch.

 

[farzyness]

Today's events set up a great buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the following events:

-Cash Flow positive in Q1
-Model X reviews from publications
-Model 3 reveal and first reservations
-Realization of major revenue streams from Tesla Energy