Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Yes. Buying before a disappointing ER to signal that the fundamentals are still sound.

Would not buying before a surprisingly good ER be insider trading?

1, Buying after a disappointing ER would be an even bigger sign to show he has long term faith in the company even as the stock falls. Plus, he would have had to pay less taxes too.
2, Has been answered. Insider trading is not defined by whether the stock falls or climbs after you made deals based on insider information. CEOs always have insider information, so according to your definition they could never trade their own company's stock. But they can, hence, the usual 2 week moratorium pre ER. (I am not this smart, just read smarter people writing on this on this thread :tongue: )

Folding 2nd row seats in the X :wink:

Oh nooo, you did not! I'll give you 1 point for the punchline of the day. On a serious note, though, i would consider a sudden, unexpected design/manufacturing flaw or weakness - all of which they have taken care of superbly in the past. I consider the foldgate story a design choice, a compromise, that caused a lot of uproar among early reservation holders. Time will tell if any significant cancellations happened as a result, but I have to think if that was the case, Tesla would have gone into full damage control mode by now, promising later free trade-ins for folding seats, etc

Elon has some freedom in what to disclose. He may not answer the Model X ramp-up questions clearly (using real numbers), and give only vague answers like "making progress". Bulls will read that as real progress, bears will read that as problems, and we will all be at the same place we are now.

IMO, if the Q1 delivery guidance will be separated into X and S numbers, it will be a good sign that Model X issues are fixed.

In theory, you are perfectly correct. In fact he can chose he will not answer a single question at all. However, should he avoid all uncomfortable questions and give BS answers, the headlines would burry TSLA the next day and he knows that. i don't expect such behavior.

 

[lango]

I don't think Elon's purchase matters in this case. I think it would be a distraction for him to try to time it in any way, and also answer the potential questions that comes with it. There is also the signal effect to the employees (why did Elon choose to wait with exercising, are we not doing well etc.) It is all about the long term and for that market timing does not matter.

China is not the same, but there is still a lot of very wealthy people there that wants EVs.

I checked the transcripts of the last two earnings calls. And the current state of X is not that bad compared to what was said back then. I don't think they have to ramp it up for the cash position to be healthy until the end of Q1. However, positive FCF will probably not happen if they don't do it relatively soon as that was "an aspiration, not a promise".

 

[everman]

Spoke to a couple of the production engineers over by the MX Skateboard they had on display.

Another interesting tidbit: As of Jan 4, the line runs 4 days a week with employees working 12 hour shifts, the other 3 days the line has maintenance done, adjustments, etc. Before that folks were working 5 days, 8 hour shifts. They voted to have a 3 day weekend and work longer hours.

This is encouraging. Coming from high volume manufacturing, this is one of the first steps taken as a factory moves towards 24/7 coverage. The line is separating into the 'front half/back half' of the week workforce. Then will move to days/nights as all four production shifts are formed, A, B, C and D shifts.

Update: I only mention this as part of a long term transition. I am not saying that it is imminent or anything. Just that they will be set up well for adding another compressed shift when the time comes.

 

[Papafox]

Son of a b! Elon is in College Station at my alma mater for the Hyperloop project and I'm stuck at a wedding....

I guess if she really loves you she'll be just as happy to marry you next weekend

Spoken like a true Tesla aficionado!

 

[dmunjal]

Yes. Buying before a disappointing ER to signal that the fundamentals are still sound.

Would not buying before a surprisingly good ER be insider trading?

Musk also bought a lot of Solar City stock back in August at $45.

Elon Musk just bought up $5 million of SolarCity stock - Fortune

It's trading at $36 now.

 

[McMuggets]

Musk also bought a lot of Solar City stock back in August at $45.

Elon Musk just bought up $5 million of SolarCity stock - Fortune

It's trading at $36 now.

Hey, you can't present cherry picked info here... That's the problem with forums I suppose. No time to check all history. Let's not forget he bought a TON more stock in the $20's and is all the better for it:

"For instance, on November 16 2015, Musk acquired 198,615 shares at an average cost of $26.45 a share for approximately $5.25 million. This was in continuation with the acquisition of 223,197 shares at an average price of $25.40 a share on Friday. That resulted in a payout of about $5.67 million. The fresh lot of acquisition of shares commenced on November 12 when Musk bought 83,955 shares at an average cost of $25.2 a share. That made him to shell out $2.12 million.It is still not clear whether Musk will continue its acquisition of SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ:SCTY)’s share. However, until now, he has purchased more than half a million shares in the three-day trading activities by spending more than $13.04 million in the process."


source: Elon Musk Shows Confidence in SolarCity Corp (SCTY)

 

[blakegallagher]

Musk also bought a lot of Solar City stock back in August at $45.

Elon Musk just bought up $5 million of SolarCity stock - Fortune

It's trading at $36 now.

Ya but soon(ish) it will be 70+ and articles will be posted about how much Elon made in one day

 

[dmunjal]

Hey, you can't present cherry picked info here... That's the problem with forums I suppose. No time to check all history. Let's not forget he bought a TON more stock in the $20's and is all the better for it:

"For instance, on November 16 2015, Musk acquired 198,615 shares at an average cost of $26.45 a share for approximately $5.25 million. This was in continuation with the acquisition of 223,197 shares at an average price of $25.40 a share on Friday. That resulted in a payout of about $5.67 million. The fresh lot of acquisition of shares commenced on November 12 when Musk bought 83,955 shares at an average cost of $25.2 a share. That made him to shell out $2.12 million.It is still not clear whether Musk will continue its acquisition of SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ:SCTY)’s share. However, until now, he has purchased more than half a million shares in the three-day trading activities by spending more than $13.04 million in the process."


source: Elon Musk Shows Confidence in SolarCity Corp (SCTY)

My only point is that CEOs are not infallible about their own stock price direction. Don't necessarily follow their moves.

 

[chickensevil]

My only point is that CEOs are not infallible about their own stock price direction. Don't necessarily follow their moves.

Ok, but it has been one time out of how many purchases of TSLA and SCTY??? I think that is a pretty solid indicator. Better odds than you are likely to get just reading the tea leaves.

 

[MitchJi]

This is encouraging. Coming from high volume manufacturing, this is one of the first steps taken as a factory moves towards 24/7 coverage. The line is separating into the 'front half/back half' of the week workforce. Then will move to days/nights as all four production shifts are formed, A, B, C and D shifts.

Update: I only mention this as part of a long term transition. I am not saying that it is imminent or anything. Just that they will be set up well for adding another compressed shift when the time comes.

Why couldn't they have done that instead of announcing reducing guidance from 55k to 50-55k? How hard is it to do that? Why do they keep saying that the Fremont plant is limited to 500k per year?

Originally Posted by JRP3
Folding 2nd row seats in the X

Oh nooo, you did not! I'll give you 1 point for the punchline of the day. On a serious note, though, i would consider a sudden, unexpected design/manufacturing flaw or weakness - all of which they have taken care of superbly in the past. I consider the foldgate story a design choice, a compromise, that caused a lot of uproar among early reservation holders. Time will tell if any significant cancellations happened as a result, but I have to think if that was the case, Tesla would have gone into full damage control mode by now, promising later free trade-ins for folding seats, etc

I think that Tesla believes (and I agree), that most CUV/SUV customers are more concerned about the ease of getting passengers, child seats and miscellaneous small stuff, e.g. bags of groceries and softball equipment into and out of their CUV/SUV than getting a vehicle that is optimized to replicate a small pickup truck.

I don't understand why everyone jumped on maoing this morning. I think that the concerns he was trying to convey are all reasonable:

• 
  He doesn't think the EM quote from Paris will convince the market (I agree).
  
  He doesn't think believe that it's safe to assume that Tesla is out of the woods yet on the MX ramp. I agree, but based on EM's remark I am almost 100% sure the it's safe to assume that this will be a positive in time for the May ER-CC.
  
  He believes that it is possible that the MX could fail, due to being too difficult to build, and he thinks that the ability to order-or-configure in China might be a signal that Tesla believes that they can build and profitably sell reliable MX's. I disagree with most of that line of reasoning, but I used to have similar doubts myself.

 

[blakegallagher]

My only point is that CEOs are not infallible about their own stock price direction. Don't necessarily follow their moves.

Ha, My point is maybe Elon is and your just using the wrong time scale!

 

[everman]

Why couldn't they have done that instead of announcing reducing guidance from 55k to 50-55k? How hard is it to do that? Why do they keep saying that the Fremont plant is limited to 500k per year?

I'm sure there were other limiting factors in Q4 that directed their guidance to 50-52k. I should also clarify the statement coming from high volume manufacturing. I meant that is my background, and so I present my perspective on the situation based on that experience.

 

[Spidy]

Did not see this posted here so far. BMW 3-Series eDrive Sport according one of Germany's largest car magazines.

New competitor in 2018. Next BMW 3 series with 90 kwh battery

 

[McMuggets]

My only point is that CEOs are not infallible about their own stock price direction. Don't necessarily follow their moves.

Sure I get it. CEO buys (and sells then?) aren't predictors of stock price movement (either up or down). However, I definitely feel more confident with Elon buying and paying cash on taxes, than if Elon exercised and sold 2 weeks before earnings. Cherry picking one instance of a stock purchase where the stock went down (and let's not forgot last month it was up from your $40 price point argument) below today's stock price, in order to strengthen an already weak argument on whey CEO's share purchases is somehow a "non-event"... is simply wrong to do. Then again, I don't hold anyone here to some sort of journalistic standard since it IS a free open forum. I will call you out on it though.

 

[uselesslogin]

Did not see this posted here so far. BMW 3-Series eDrive Sport according one of Germany's largest car magazines.

New competitor in 2018. Next BMW 3 series with 90 kwh battery

Confusing thread..... I also read the Google translate which makes it sound like the BEV version is scheduled for 2020. Would be good to hear more.. The battery seems crazy large for a 3 series.

 

[Papafox]

Elon's payment in cash for his TSLA options received quite a bit of press Friday afternoon and Saturday. That's a positive for Monday.

Tesla's hiring Jim Keller to oversee autopilot hardware should be regarded as a minor positive by investors.

I haven't seen any news stories regarding Elon's positive comments from Paris regarding Model X production ramp yet, so we'll likely only see a few well-informed bulls buying for that reason unless something comes out Monday morning.

Balancing the positive news, we might see continue gamesmanship by the shorts in an effort to keep the stock price from rising too much prior to Feb 10. Go ahead and consider me a paranoid long, if you like, or consider me an observer of buying opportunities on dips that are neither supported by broad market actions or by news. Your choice.

 

[dakh]

When I heard Elon say that, I interpreted it as "the most difficult car to design and make production-ready" - he was talking about the headaches they were experiencing at the time. I don't believe he literally meant it would be "the most difficult car to build in mass quantities". I'm certain that once they iron out the supplier and production challenges (and as noted above, Tesla is very good at doing that), the MX will be no more difficult to build than the MS.

It's useful to appreciate the difference between making a car and making a machine that makes a car. Likely they designed Model X and had it all working as a prototype vehicle and thought Ok now it's just making it and we know we can make Model S, no big deal. Then they bumped up against pretty much entire auto industry supply chain not willing/capable of making stuff to their spec and spent the next 2 years arm-wrestling with contractors and making stuff that nobody else is making in-house themselves.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm sure there were other limiting factors in Q4 that directed their guidance to 50-52k.

I should also clarify the statement coming from high volume manufacturing. I meant that is my background, and so I present my perspective on the situation based on that experience.

I'm also sure there were other limiting factors, but I knew that was what you meant. I was hoping a deeper explanation of your "perspective on that situation based on your experience".

 

[stealthology]

I don't think Elon's purchase matters in this case. I think it would be a distraction for him to try to time it in any way, and also answer the potential questions that comes with it. There is also the signal effect to the employees (why did Elon choose to wait with exercising, are we not doing well etc.) It is all about the long term and for that market timing does not matter.

China is not the same, but there is still a lot of very wealthy people there that wants EVs.

I checked the transcripts of the last two earnings calls. And the current state of X is not that bad compared to what was said back then. I don't think they have to ramp it up for the cash position to be healthy until the end of Q1. However, positive FCF will probably not happen if they don't do it relatively soon as that was "an aspiration, not a promise".

Well they just recently upgraded their line's capacity in Q3 and produced a ton of cars for Q4. What if they just produced a lot of S' in Q1 like last quarter? What's the difference? The Sigs are -$40K.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

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