My biggest concern with FCF is currency headwinds. Looks like they were really shooting for it but currency is external. Certainly will be fun to watch the action in the next few weeks. Maybe even participate 
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Buddyroe
Active Member
Not to beat a dead horse, but January ended with only 1 new SupChgr construction start in the U.S. - the lowest amount in any month since at least October of 2013 when Blueshift started tracking them on supercharge.info.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
TSLA down a percent in Europe.
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Tesla applies for Michigan dealership license:
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/bu...applies-dealership-license-michigan/79619370/
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Tesla applies for Michigan dealership license:
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/bu...applies-dealership-license-michigan/79619370/
Yes, and pre-market, although low volume so far, down 2,2%.
Futures red, oil red.
In the last few sessions, what was happening pre-market was not representative of what happened during regular trading hours, to the contrary.
Max-pain, however has been consistently going down: 185 for this week and 160 for the weeks of ER.
Next two weeks will be very interesting...we are so close to the 52 week low. Hope we stay above that now...
My gut feel on this (as I alluded to at $200 ish) is that there was a 25% chance of Elon buying shares on the dip. The 75% against was down to the fact that Elon's last purchase was at $242 as an endorsement of a public funding round and the CEO buying public shares to level down is not the right message. (Elon's SCTY purchase on the dip was still by far the highest price he ever bought SCTY at). Secondly buying public shares for no other reason than to inject confidence is too blatant to be effective - more than likely just be greeted with headlines: billionaire CEO seeks to prop up flagging stock. Exercising options on the other hand, something that Elon literally has the option to do, squares that circle. If I had actually contemplated the options-exercise move at all, then that 25% probability would have jumped to 90%+
It is clearly in Musk's interest to take advantage of a 52-week low for tax efficiency purposes, it's fully defensible decision for that reason alone. Of course it is perfectly fair to speculate that Elon and his advisers have sought a defensible excuse to exercise $100 million worth of options because there is very good reason to be confident that this was a winning move. It would have been equally defensible to wait for a lower 52 week low if that were more likely.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Is this the first X spotted in Europe?
First Tesla Model X spotted in Europe happens to be seen near Audis headquarters | Electrek
First Tesla Model X spotted in Europe happens to be seen near Audis headquarters | Electrek
Buddyroe
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
They bought a 2012 Model S too. Apparently it will take them until 2019 to come out with their Model S clone (Mission E). At that pace, maybe we can look forward to a Porsche announcing a 2023 electric Cayenne. Wouldn't that be an unCayenn-e coincidence.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
dreamingof3
Member
I'm trying to figure out when in the last month the price action in TSLA made sense. Today we are down $6 premarket. Is this premarket drop directly related to Elon's comments about the 3?
Chickenlittle
Banned
When I got my model s in March 2013, had to sign agreement not to reverse engineer. I reported to tesla seeing a signature model s in Delaware (at the time the only supercharger on east coast). It was taken off flat bed and had computers attached in the cab. The tech with the car said it was owned by BMW and taken apart and put back together. He claimed tesla knew and even replaced some part that was damaged in the process. They towed it because they came from north or South Carolina and wanted the battery completely depleted for their testing. They were testing the supercharger rates. I would not expect different treatment with the model X.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
This is exactly what I am thinking too. SP decoupled from news and facts. Dropping like a stone since beginning of this year as if the entire fleet was on fire!
Gerardf
Active Member
Which remark exactly ? Do you mean that 'only' one version will be unveiled, or to you refer to showing pictures of the Model-3 ?
As I already wrote in the EU thread.. :
Elon did not say we will only see pictures.
Question in the video (@ 12.25) was : "When will we see pictures of the Model 3 ?" ... and the answer was "The first pictures of Model 3.. That will be end of March".
Elon then added: "we are not going to show everything of model 3 until we are much closer to production".
Next to that, the Q3-ER stated:
As of September 30, 2015, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype
- Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles; and
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype
They must have been pretty close to these milestones late September. (the 100k aggregate production was actually reached in December).
I do expect we will see at least an Alpha prototype at the unveil.
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dreamingof3
Member
So forgive my ignorance but I thought Elon just exercised options at $6 which is not the same as buying at market prices. Or did he also buy shares at current price? TIA
Gerardf
Active Member
The important part is that he actually had to pay US$ 50M tax on converting these options, and that he decided not to sell a single share to cover that tax. So he effectively put 50M more in. As he received no salary from Tesla, he probably had to loan that money.
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