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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Really? Why wouldn't it make sense? Tesla helps VW make EV's and VW invests a few billion into battery factories that will be shared with Tesla. Why wouldn't this make sense? Force VW to invest $20 billion in EV's as punishment for lying about emissions. Makes complete sense.

Why would the German government select Tesla, specifically and exclusively, to "force" VW to collaborate with on remediation? Also, the German government has no jurisdiction over Tesla to get/force them to help VW. While it may make sense to us, it would never happen unless other companies were also involved and it was a deal to good to refuse for Tesla.
 
Really? Why wouldn't it make sense? Tesla helps VW make EV's and VW invests a few billion into battery factories that will be shared with Tesla. Why wouldn't this make sense? Force VW to invest $20 billion in EV's as punishment for lying about emissions. Makes complete sense.

It wouldn't make sense because of the vast differences in their objectives, and most importantly in their corporate culture. Those differences are irreconcilable. Much smaller investments from Toyota and Daimler didn't turn into bigger partnerships very likely for the same reason.

Not to mention, of course, that the German government cannot "force" a German company to partner with an American startup, nor would they ever try, under any imaginable circumstances.

Forcing them to invest in EVs (not to partner with Tesla) is slightly more plausible, I suppose, but I don't see them going that route either anytime soon.
 
It wouldn't make sense because of the vast differences in their objectives, and most importantly in their corporate culture. Those differences are irreconcilable. Much smaller investments from Toyota and Daimler didn't turn into bigger partnerships very likely for the same reason.

This is not even to mention, of course, that the German government cannot "force" a German company to merge with an American startup, nor would they ever try, under any imaginable circumstances.

It would make a lot of sense for political reasons.

1) Germany can force VW to do certain things.
2) If VW offered Tesla a $5-20 billion loan to build Battery Factories I don't think Tesla would decline the offer.
3) Tesla is the only company prepared to build a mass market EV. Tesla is also the only company preparing to build battery factories that will employ tens of thousands of people and will EV capable of building millions of EV's.
4) The last thing Germang would want would be for VW to go bankrupt and for tens of thousands of people to be unemployed.
5) It would be a vet big political win for Tesla and VW if both companies partnered on some level to save the German economy and speed up EV sales.
6) Tesla partnering with VW would probably help Tesla expand rapidly in just about every market.
 
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It would make a lot of sense for political reasons.

1) Germany can force VW to do certain things.
2) If VW offered Tesla a $5-20 billion loan to build Battery Factories I don't think Tesla would decline the offer.
3) Tesla is the only company prepared to build a mass market EV. Tesla is also the only company preparing to build battery factories that will employ tens of thousands of people and will EV capable of building millions of EV's.
4) The last thing Germang would want would be for VW to go bankrupt and for tens of thousands of people to be unemployed.
5) It would be a vet big political win for Tesla and VW if both companies partnered on some level to save the German economy and speed up EV sales.
6) Tesla partnering with VW would probably help Tesla expand rapidly in just about every market.

It would make a lot of sense for the U.S., Russia and China to become economic and military allies. We could get world peace!
 
It would make a lot of sense for the U.S., Russia and China to become economic and military allies. We could get world peace!

There are a lot of reasons to believe VW will agree to any settlement that is better than the alternative.

Volkswagen Could Have to Pay $90 billion for Its Emissions Cheat | Foreign Policy
The size of the possible financial penalties shows that U.S. law enforcement is playing hardball with the German company, which has already admitted wrongdoing. It could be an incentive to get Volkswagen to settle the case quickly, something that Kenneth Feinberg, the lawyer hired by the company to handle the U.S. inquiry, said he wanted to do last month. In a statement released after the suit was made public, VW reiterated its desire to cobble together a deal without going to trial.
 
From another post on TMC: regarding mercedes and diesel emissions:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/02/02/dieselgate-reaches-daimler-a-defeat-device-by-another-name/#2715e4857a0b2f61a9d01891

So would this move the SP for mercedes, but keep TSLA stationary or cautionary since TM is expected to get it right, while others are actually cheating... I think we also need to revisit world wide sales of MS in 2015 vs. S Class... Just sayin'

Of course, but this is a completely different statement.
 
Of course, but this is a completely different statement.

Food for though.

Musk: VW should have to make EVs, not pay fines for TDI scandal | LeftLaneNews

The executive points to the 1990s diesel truck cheating scandal as a precedent for such a resolution. Rather than requiring an interim recall, the EPA simply moved up its schedule for implementing tighter emissions regulations. The example isn't quite an apples-to-apples comparison, however, as the truck fiasco involved all major diesel engine manufacturers and the companies still had to collectively pay $1 billion in penalties.
 
Two weeks before Q2 2015 TSLA was downgraded 3 times, one of which was the same guy from Pacific Crest, Brad Erickson. We went from 280 to 200 afterwards.

Two weeks before Q3 2015 TSLA was downgraded again by the same Brad Erickson. We went from 200 to 240 after.

No real consistency besides the fact that this Brad Erickson guy really likes to downgrade TSLA before earnings.

Blatant stock manipulation. There will be real numbers that will answer questions about guidance, demand, production and delivery ramp for Model X, etc in one week. To publish articles downgrading the stock based on analyst's fears while containing false data one week before all questions are answered is criminal. There should be investigations to see if these people profit in any way when the stock moves based on their doom and gloom FUD, and they should be thrown in jail if they are. This is worse than insider trading.
 
In any case, this is disappointing. This all points to sub-15K combined deliveries for Q1. Maybe as low as 13K deliveries.

Like I said a week or two ago. It's best to keep some dry powder available for the Q1 ER.

I agree. The practical ongoing demand ceiling may be something like 10,000 model S a quarter without good sales in China. That could leave a Q1 with 12,000 cars delivered. That low number may be disastrous relative to expectations, but it hardly indicates a fundamental problem with Tesla.

For the investor, Q1 ER may be the best buying opportunity.
 
At this price I really wish I had more spare cash on hand, but I'm picking up my impossible to build Model X on Wednesday and need to write a check for it.

Hmm...are you sure it even exists? It might just be a picture of your impossible to build vehicle that you'll get to see. But if it's a real X, take an umbrella. Wouldn't want you to get wet when those FWD don't open fast enough or don't open at all! Oh wait, you're in the Poconos...the doors will be frozen shut no doubt! Mostly though, I suspect your vehicle doesn't exist and they'll try and hard sell you an S from that vast inventory lot they've got out back because we all know demand for those have gone down the drain. :wink:
 
I agree. The practical ongoing demand ceiling may be something like 10,000 model S a quarter without good sales in China. That could leave a Q1 with 12,000 cars delivered. That low number may be disastrous relative to expectations, but it hardly indicates a fundamental problem with Tesla.

For the investor, Q1 ER may be the best buying opportunity.

I agree. 12,000 deliveries in Q1 would hardly indicate a fundamental problem. As long as they talk about the gigafactory, show progress on the Model 3, and report being able to produce at least 100 Model X's per week, then that should support the $25 billion valuation. Go Tesla!
 
I think the demand ceiling (i.e., not getting 50% yoy growth, but could still grow just slower) for S starts around 13-15k per quarter. They have been doing this without pushing too hard on referral/inventory last year.

I agree. The practical ongoing demand ceiling may be something like 10,000 model S a quarter without good sales in China. That could leave a Q1 with 12,000 cars delivered. That low number may be disastrous relative to expectations, but it hardly indicates a fundamental problem with Tesla.

For the investor, Q1 ER may be the best buying opportunity.
 
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