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flankspeed8
Member
TSLA first hit the current share price in August of 2013. The market has now discounted 2 1/2 years of progresss
Won't happen. If it does, won't stay there very long. Nothing bad has happened since Tesla was $230. The only thing that changed is Oil falling to $30 a barrel, and some noise from analysts.
1) EV incentives have been increased
2) demand is strong
3) Model 3 is on or ahead of schedule
4) Tesla is working with Europe and Asia to expand rapidly and to prepare for a 2nd and 3rd Gigafactory
5) Next week we find out about the $10 per barrel oil fee
6) within the next week we'll find out about VW
7) SoCal gas is likely to have to pay a gigantic fine, perhaps as high as $60 billion, much of which will to into clean energy projects and cleaning up the mess it created.
8) Because of VW and SoCal gas, there is more of an imperative than before to accelerate the shift to Electric Vehicles and sustainable energy. More incentives are needed to speed up solar deployment and grid storage. (Microgrids)
If world governments wanted to, it is possible to generate 100% of all energy from renewable sources in 10-15 years. The American Petroleum Institute is the main organization opposed to a $10 per barrel oil fee. Shocker.
The US government can't force oil and coal companies to close, however they can make it very difficult for them to be profitable, forcing them to shift their business models quickly and provide employees with the training and time needed to adjust to new jobs. The Chinese government however can force all oil, coal, and dirty energy sources to close shop very quickly, since most of them are state owned.
Which is freakin ridiculous! I'm a long and not going anywhere, so to see this is infuriating. So what the ramp up might take more months? All the reviews of the X have been amazing, the company just made another amazing car!?!
So that's two cars now, not one, with an explanation of a third in two months, plus storage now. People don't get it......
my calls Portfolio consist approx. half tsla half fb, then i have some core tesla Shares.
50% of my calls burned this week, im just happy that fb did up for it..so imr really pissed off with tsla stock right now
I am a tesla owner but dislike the stock. I am a pretty big investor. I can't believe the naive attitudes about this stock in this forum. The multiples for this company are in the stratosphere and will do nothing but come down. They can never grow into the multiple they have today. Oil is at record lows which will reduce demand for teslas. Competition has woke up and more and more rivals will be out there. Many high flyer tech stocks getting crushed after lowering forecasts for this coming year. Look at DATA, LNKD, GOOG, and many others. TSLA is next on earnings. I feel bad for those who have put so much of their portfolio into this. Good Luck, I see 120 or below for Tesla soon.
I'll continue to be the half glass empty guy, I guess : or the market had already priced in 2 1/2 years of progress back in August'13...
Won't happen. If it does, won't stay there very long. Nothing bad has happened since Tesla was $230. The only thing that changed is Oil falling to $30 a barrel, and some noise from analysts.
1) EV incentives have been increased
2) demand is strong
3) Model 3 is on or ahead of schedule
4) Tesla is working with Europe and Asia to expand rapidly and to prepare for a 2nd and 3rd Gigafactory
5) Next week we find out about the $10 per barrel oil fee
6) within the next week we'll find out about VW
7) SoCal gas is likely to have to pay a gigantic fine, perhaps as high as $60 billion, much of which will to into clean energy projects and cleaning up the mess it created.
8) Because of VW and SoCal gas, there is more of an imperative than before to accelerate the shift to Electric Vehicles and sustainable energy. More incentives are needed to speed up solar deployment and grid storage. (Microgrids)
If world governments wanted to, it is possible to generate 100% of all energy from renewable sources in 10-15 years. The American Petroleum Institute is the main organization opposed to a $10 per barrel oil fee. Shocker.
The US government can't force oil and coal companies to close, however they can make it very difficult for them to be profitable, forcing them to shift their business models quickly and provide employees with the training and time needed to adjust to new jobs. The Chinese government however can force all oil, coal, and dirty energy sources to close shop very quickly, since most of them are state owned.
Excuse me, I'm not from US, where I can buy this "koolaid"?
I want to drink very much of it too!:smile:
People argued it was overvalued at $30. It's been the same consistent arguments. It kind of resembles a stick price inflation chart.
dc_h
Active Member
I'm encouraged by better anecdotal reports about Model X production and high volume of Model S production and shipments. They were 3 months behind in Europe and Asia at the end of 2016, so they should be whatever flat out production is for Model S. If that is 1200 or more and they do sell more inventory as mmd has suggested is possible, and deliver 300 or more Model X per week, they could target over 18,000 deliveries in Q1. I've been very concerned (Debbie downer) about Model X production ramp. This seems to be resolving itself and implies we should be rallying, all else equal.
Responding here, due to low gasoline prices spurring EV. I don't buy that. I don't think Model S, X or 3 will be impacted by oil. They are the 2007 iPhone of the auto market, but the overall EV adaptation rate will be impacted by prices at the pump. The Saudi's are trying to raise the barrier to entry for shale and competing energy solutions, including EV's. I don't think this hurts Tesla, but it is putting serious hurt on TSLA. A decent ER and good guidance could easily reverse the momentum. We may spiral more, but good guidance may conquer all. Here's to hoping Elon is keeping the powder dry for a big reversal.
The real key will of course be a good PowerPoint from Elon. Hopefully Stewart Alsop can help out. -- My first reaction was negative. Second thought this was good strategy. Take the narrative away from Stewart and focus on the positive consumer interaction.
Responding here, due to low gasoline prices spurring EV. I don't buy that. I don't think Model S, X or 3 will be impacted by oil. They are the 2007 iPhone of the auto market, but the overall EV adaptation rate will be impacted by prices at the pump. The Saudi's are trying to raise the barrier to entry for shale and competing energy solutions, including EV's. I don't think this hurts Tesla, but it is putting serious hurt on TSLA. A decent ER and good guidance could easily reverse the momentum. We may spiral more, but good guidance may conquer all. Here's to hoping Elon is keeping the powder dry for a big reversal.
The real key will of course be a good PowerPoint from Elon. Hopefully Stewart Alsop can help out. -- My first reaction was negative. Second thought this was good strategy. Take the narrative away from Stewart and focus on the positive consumer interaction.
sundaymorning
Active Member
dreamingof3
Member
A few quotes---"the market can stay irrational for long periods of time". My interpretation- the entire month of January has been irrational for Tesla shares
"the market is almost always wrong short term". My interpretation- this is a tremendous buying opportunity
I think tesla wasnt overvalued back then, it was valued exactly right. Today ist undervalued. The Explanation for the Price fall is simple:Short term hinges on earnings now. Hoping for 72-75K guidance
People are all panicking, and they are Selling every stock. Tsla stock gets sold way more, thats the only difference.
The market is a manic-depressive guy, in a depressive mode right now..
Exactly, and TSLA almost broke above $200 but before it could, we started losing about 18% since then simply due to "analysts" making silly estimates one per day starting with Morgan Stanley, Pacific Crest, Berenberg, and Lutz. So who's the "TSLA Short of the Day" for today?
Also, we're at a PPS that's inline with the lowest PT of even the most pessimistic analyst. We should get a reverse-LNKD-today on ER day (+40%).
Short term hinges on earnings now. Hoping for 72-75K guidance
Guidance yes, but also X ramp. I didn't predict this but it seems the (entirely predictable) X ramp has become the whole story. I think the X ramp is a proxy for the whole growth story. As long as the X ramp feels flawed it harms the growth story, and model 3 story. EM needs to be very bullish on the dang X ramp.
I said it at 180, but at this point so much negativity is built in to expectations almost any news should trigger a relief rally. After ER the next thing is the M3 reveal, and I would not want to be holding short through that.
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