Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[yngwie_2012]

Guidance yes, but also X ramp. I didn't predict this but it seems the (entirely predictable) X ramp has become the whole story. I think the X ramp is a proxy for the whole growth story. As long as the X ramp feels flawed it harms the growth story, and model 3 story. EM needs to be very bullish on the dang X ramp.

I said it at 180, but at this point so much negativity is built in to expectations almost any news should trigger a relief rally. After ER the next thing is the M3 reveal, and I would not want to be holding short through that.

even solid stocks with real earnings like fb is down 4% today..so ist not a miracle if tsla falls 10%. The market is just on Panic.

 

[ohmman]

For the record, as someone who hasn't been considering an outright position in TSLA for a long time, it's reaching levels that are attractive to me. I won't be touching it until after the ER, though. I don't mind missing out on the opportunity given the risk associated with pricing action related to the report. If I'm going to buy, it'll only be if I can get in under $148 or so. I don't kick myself for missing opportunities, it's a wide market.

 

[SBenson]

even solid stocks with real earnings like fb is down 4% today..so ist not a miracle if tsla falls 10%. The market is just on Panic.

Not entirely accurate. UBNT is up big even on a day like today. They put out good ER yesterday after hours.

Some of TSLA price action is market-wide sentiment. But some of it is TSLA specific, like UBS report this morning and general fears around the upcoming ER.

X ramp and guidance will rule the day. Market still nervous about these two.

 

[Papafox]

Is there a technical reason why 164 has been so strong today?

I can see the shorts pushed hard to get 165 and unlock some stop-loss targets, but I'm surprised by 164's resilience.

 

[FredTMC]

I was on a short break from the forums when things went bad for sleepyhead, still don't know the full story, maybe I'm completely mistaken.

Yeah. I think he had a different stock that put a dent in him. Loved his TSLA postings though

 

[aznt1217]

Yeah. I think he had a different stock that put a dent in him. Loved his TSLA postings though

Pronan;y CSIQ.

 

[dreamingof3]

I might have to turn my screen off. This is getting bad for my health.

 

[uselesslogin]

Pronan;y CSIQ.

Worse.. GTAT

 

[dreamingof3]

Down 14 for what? Please remind me......this is INSANE. This is the closest to a crash we have seen in a long time.

 

[sundaymorning]

Guidance yes, but also X ramp. I didn't predict this but it seems the (entirely predictable) X ramp has become the whole story. I think the X ramp is a proxy for the whole growth story. As long as the X ramp feels flawed it harms the growth story, and model 3 story. EM needs to be very bullish on the dang X ramp.

I said it at 180, but at this point so much negativity is built in to expectations almost any news should trigger a relief rally. After ER the next thing is the M3 reveal, and I would not want to be holding short through that.

I'm more confident about the X ramp, it comes down to the doors and it will get done. As you said, their reputation hinges on it so it will be done. We are talking about Elon and his staff launching rockets vs. doors? With guidance in the 72-75k range, we can operate at a decent profit even in the face of a blizzard. The other fact about a 72k guidance is that it should provide insight how much we can ramp up the X for 2016. In essence, X is already included in the 72k number without even mentioning about logistics detail for the ramp.

 

[mmd]

Is there a technical reason why 164 has been so strong today?

You jinxed it
It has become so bad, I think post ER can only be good. By now, Elon knows darn well not to give out a poor guidance.

 

[dalalsid]

woah 160

 

[aznt1217]

I'm more confident about the X ramp, it comes down to the doors and it will get done. As you said, their reputation hinges on it so it will be done. However, with guidance in the 72-75k range, we can operate at a decent profit even in the face of a blizzard.

I think you mean... double hinges

 

[dreamingof3]

If this continues we are gonna hit some circuit breakers. I wish the market was closing right now

 

[Muaddid]

And here i thought doubling my shares of TSLA in the 19x was a good deal... such a big drop on... no news ??

 

[Noble Ninja]

Down 14 for what? Please remind me......this is INSANE. This is the closest to a crash we have seen in a long time.

NASDAQ is currently down -2.90% and looks like TSLA is just following it today when you compare/overlap today's charts to each other.

 

[dalalsid]

If this continues we are gonna hit some circuit breakers. I wish the market was closing right now

Hmm not just Tesla, looks like NFLX, AMZN etc. are all hurting.

 

[FredTMC]

Show me the model X can be produced in volume, and the rest is irrelevant .

thats my working hypothesis .

Uncertainty means risk, risk means price concession.

Rationalizations can lead to self deception, just be aware.

2020 production is not the issue , it's model X , in my view.
I too can be very wrong.

I have complete confidence tesla can produce (build) Model 3 at volume without a ton of risk.

1). Tesla's manufacrung VP came from Toyota and his factories produced the Lexus RX350. 100's of thousands of units per year

2). Model 3 will be a simpler car compared to MX/MS

3). Battery and Drive train are completely derisked already. Proven now

4). Body-in-white will be simple to produce (by design)

beyond manufacturing risks, capital requirements could be a challenge. I assume Tesla will start with ONE robotic weld line and human Assembly line for M3. Just like Gigafactory, tesla can choose to scale out the Model3 lines over time. Doesn't have to be a single big CapEx expense in 1 year. Again, just like GF. Could be a 3 year scale-out

 

[phigment]

This does look to be a high beta response to macro events. I'm interested in the volume. The previous 3rd Q CC resulted in a volume of 12M. And previous to that the Consumer reports downgrade resulted in almost 15M volume. The recent volume with a high of 8M seems somewhat insignificant given all the downgrades and negativity.

Right now it looks like the market is basing much of it's buying decisions on future guidance, not really the past performance. It feels like if we hear a solid forecast for 2016 (and I imagine we will with all the upcoming catalysts ), the volume will top that of the 3Q CC and we should get a nice rise out of the stock. :smile:

 

[satoshi]

As a person who has been contemplating buying stock, I'm glad I waited... just gotta watch for when it bottoms out and make my first stock investment then.