Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[uselesslogin]

During this recent sell off has spooked Fidelity as it doesn't appear they have sold any of their additional stake in TSLA they took on 1/11/16 - hopefully I am not reading the documents wrong.

SEC Filings | Tesla Motors
Tesla Motors - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership

The document does not update every day. There is no way to know if they sold or not.

 

[dreamingof3]

We're down 25% in exactly one week due to no change or news about the company except a string of analyst rating updates last week and overall market downturn. I've been following the bollinger band as well and it's been showing as oversold and undervalued for several weeks now.

By the way, what happened to that shorting circuit breaker that was in place Friday and today? It hit -10% on Friday and bounced up, and right now it's closing in on another -10%.

There are rules and there are people who don't follow the rules? Or a big fund is selling. This stock is currently making me nauseous

 

[SBenson]

So this is me yesterday at Sarasota Fl, mall where two private individual owners generously showed their model X. Absolutely stunning and gorgeous fit and finish is first rate and seems superior to model S. And the Falcon wing doors worked perfectly.

This is applicable to short term trading as I am even more confident loading up at these prices with dollar cost averaging.

The amount of venomous FUD on this forum right now is additional reason for optimism IMO.

Can we get some weigh in from some of the respected posters please?

Kurt, julian, DaveT?

We are at a crossroads. I see macro events having cause much of this route as Tesla moves quicker than the market in the same direction in general. It will also move quicker back up.

I'm calling a prime buying opportunity.

Thanks for this. Appreciate it. I am waiting with two tiny cash amounts waiting to be deployed on long side. But given the momentum on the down side it's very hard to push forward.

 

[hockeythug]

So thanks for that source which then leads to me wondering how much they deferred. $1,000 per car? I mean that could be like $60 million in revenue which will be recognized in Q4. Am I off base on that? It makes $0.10 EPS look really really easy.

$2,500 x how many people selected the option when they ordered?

 

[stef]

Haha, if these "analysts" really knew what they are talking (speculating really) about, they wouldn't have to hold a day job as an analyst. They could simply make tons of money in the market by predicting the future correctly.

Hi guys
First post but long time reader (and shareholder)
Wish I had a better moment for my first post , but I really don't get all this rush by analysts to rush recommendations out only days before ER. I don't remember this happening before (say in the last couple of years).
Sure they will have to update their models again in 2 days... so why the rush, unless there are other reasons behind.
Definitely they have achieved to spread fear all around...
Soon we'll know....

 

[RockinWithKids]

The document does not update every day. There is no way to know if they sold or not.

If Fidelity did make a move wouldn't a new document need to be produced and publically posted?

 

[dreamingof3]

If Fidelity did make a move wouldn't a new document need to be produced and publically posted?

I think they have 10 days to report to SEC on form 13d any sale or purchase if they are 5-20% owner of shares. Anyone have a correction to make to this?

 

[AprilDelivery??]

See I was right about Tesla price estimations from Friday. I got out but I was short from 219 but it went up to 225 but it dipped then got out. Then was short at 241 then went to 242-3 then dipped and got out too soon. But there's short sell restrictions now. But it's in trend for tomorrow's estimations.

I think 125-135 is a buying opportunity. Because two more days of selling so you figure tesla price range is usually 10-14 $ price range a day , times two days of selling before 4th quarter results would be 125-135 . Tesla beat earnings and bounces 20 $ to 145-155!

 

[Noble Ninja]

I think 125-135 is a buying opportunity. Because two more days of selling so you figure tesla price range is usually 10-14 $ price range a day , times two days of selling before 4th quarter results would be 125-135 . Tesla beat earnings and bounces 20 $ to 145-155!

With that kind of thinking and math, I hope you're just being sarcastic and not actually following through with such investment strategy.

 

[chickensevil]

Hey so I started a thread asking about deferred Autopilot revenue but it seems like most people are panicking so I guess I'll try asking here in case there are more eyeballs. I have 2 questions. First, is it deferred on GAAP only or both GAAP and non-GAAP? Second, do you have a source for that answer?

I don't have a source, but I would suspect that either:
A: They deferred it by GAAP, which means they also would have deferred by Non-GAAP since this isn't something they would have subtracted out. Since if I am not mistaken they were choosing to not count this revenue same as how they don't count revenue on cars which they have received the cash for, but haven't yet been delivered to customers.
B: They deferred it by Non-GAAP only. This seems less likely, since if they had to / wanted to defer the revenue, seems like it would have been in the GAAP first and foremost.

Either way. This should translate into a nice earnings boost to Non-GAAP which is all anyone really pays attention to as it relates to Tesla. That's how many cars delivered since the release early Q4 of 2014? 55-60k? That Autopilot was always around 2500 right? So that should be around 150M to count toward their bottom line on Q4 that wouldn't have been there. That might actually really help us with showing a .08$ EPS non-GAAP. I'm glad you reminded me of this!

 

[maoing]

145.7 is the 50% cut point from ATH. Keep finger crossed. But I don't believe that's the bottom, we could well retest the low post fire in 2013, i.e. 110-120.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is the most oversold Tesla has ever been. TMC sentiment has never been lower. I'd add more but I'm already maxed out. Enough said. All comments from analysts 1-2 days before a company reports earnings should be ignored.

 

[Drax7]

Restoring confidence in the stock will not be based on promises of an exponential ramp.

 

[pGo]

It appears that big players know something that retail does not. Retail selling would not lower prices like this. I wish we had less of Julian's and more of real issue thinkers here as a cumulative understanding of the situation.

 

[maoing]

Can we get some weigh in from some of the respected posters please?

Kurt, julian, DaveT?

We are at a crossroads. I see macro events having cause much of this rout as Tesla moves quicker than the market in the same direction in general. It will also move quicker back up.

I'm calling a prime buying opportunity.

Macro can't push TSLA to such low, if model X is ramping up successfully, I expect 180 should be bottomline. So the almost 100 points drop is half macro, half TSLA fundamental issues. Kurt/Julian were "notorious" cheerleaders in TMC, if your investment listen to them, BIG loss on your face!

 

[ludicrousspeed]

It appears that big players know something that retail does not. Retail selling would not lower prices like this. I wish we had less of Julian's and more of real issue thinkers here as a cumulative understanding of the situation.

"Real issue thinkers" don't just assume that insider trading going on with "big players" knowing something everybody else doesn't.

 

[Johan]

Even a stellar ER with some really great news and guidance won't be able to bring TSLA up more than back to $180-200 max in this environment... Who'd a thunk it one month ago? After being down 50% from ATH we need to climb 100% to get there again.

 

[dalalsid]

Tesla bears are out gloating on some of my older seekingalpha articles, this has to be a buy indicator, including posting a comment I made here!

 

[lango]

Over 10% down now on a day were shorts are banned

 

[ev-enthusiast]

TSLA -10%.