Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tray loader]

That number will only include new data from mid to end of Jan. TSLA didn't really start it's descent until Feb 2.

Look closely.
The descent started January 20 when TSLA announced the "door gate" and accelerated on 25th when Hoerbiger tried to fight back.
THEN shorts and big investors drew conclusions.
They are the symptom.
This problem dates back to pre 2012 and the artistic stubbornness of the responsible people and weak characters at the second management level.Sounds almost like a VW case.

 

[Gerasimental]

This problem dates back to pre 2012 and the autistic stubbornness of the responsible people and weak characters at the second management level.Sounds almost like a VW case.

Must this childish and offensive behaviour be tolerated, moderators?

 

[dreamingof3]

"Tesla's stock takes hit as production slows"

I'd like to take a moment to say USA today should fire the person who made this headline. Seriously- how does company growing at 50% yoy have slowing production with a backlog of 25k plus SUV's? Seriously!!! :cursing:

 

[3mp_kwh]

RE: GF output for stationary storage

So if they can sell what is already able to be made, then they can get ahead on the ROI, and have that self fund further growth rather than it just collecting dust. As long as GM is greater than 0% this should translate into a good idea (since they haven't really done any marketing or SG&A on the TE side of the house), and if they can get to 15%GM this should translate to a decent amount of extra cash net. As long as it isn't a money sink to make the products, this is a good route for them to go until the end of 2017.

Thanks. The assumed rate of self-funding at 0-Positive% Gross Margins, is the "64,000 dollar" question isn't it? If 2020 is the final finish date for the GF, than perhaps M3 contributes in the outyears, but they really need volume and/or positive GM on Model S, MX, retail & commercial storage. Somewhere between MS and (excessive?) capital raises, and a busier cocktail of the four I'd say we're discussing, is a successful direction. MS/debt/equity aren't a trio of success, correct?

~35GWh, in 2020, seems challenging. It's big enough that they should be giving color, in the ER about

• Where they'll be in stationary production thru '16, or '16 & '17?
• What the breakout between retail and commercial is? Any material commercial?
• If commercial, any different (larger?) cell format being explored?

If we're operating on it being a "non-issue", whether storage gets busy or not, that basically means optimism in cash flow from cars and cap raises. At least, that's what I take you to be saying? That seems a little tricky, to me.

While less differentiated than premium cars, the commercial storage side is also less impacted by "macro" than the electric sector. There, things look up. The merchants and the wholesale market face headwinds, basically on its expected success and the regulated support we're seeing for policies like Demand-Response (FERC 745). I'm hopeful TSLA can put on a uniform and bid against the other players in this market. Cell formats could be a limiting factor.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are now both trading below their 2008 lows. They have both declined by close to 40% since the start of the year. US banks are being dragged down as well and have been the leaders to the downside since Jan 1. Credit default swaps are spiking as if there is financial distress.

I don't think it is a coincidence that TSLA is mirroring these moves. A large portion of TSLA's future growth and current market cap(Model 3) is dependent on further borrowing and capital spending. I believe the market is currently pricing in a much tighter credit environment going forward. Model X delays aren't helpful, but I do not think it is the primary driving force right now. Fear in the credit markets is.

 

[lango]

Why do you think this credit market fear is happening now? Is it because of risk of defaults in the oil sector and the assumed credit bubble in China?

 

[Fallenone]

Strongly agree.

What makes TSLA above 100 is more about Model 3 and Model 3 requires money to develop and product. Cash burn and lag in progress for the Model 3/Gigafactory are the biggest risks to the company. To turn things around, Tesla needs to show investor:
1. No more cash burn
2. On schedule or even ahead of schedule in terms of Model 3 development

What the drag of Model X does is first delaying the company's income and losing investors confidence in their Model 3 plan. But if they can show they don't need to raise capital in the near term with a nice reveal of the Model 3 in less than two months, this free fall of stock price can be stopped too.

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are now both trading below their 2008 lows. They have both declined by close to 40% since the start of the year. US banks are being dragged down as well and have been the leaders to the downside since Jan 1. Credit default swaps are spiking as if there is financial distress.

I don't think it is a coincidence that TSLA is mirroring these moves. A large portion of TSLA's future growth and current market cap(Model 3) is dependent on further borrowing and capital spending. I believe the market is currently pricing in a much tighter credit environment going forward. Model X delays aren't helpful, but I do not think it is the primary driving force right now. Fear in the credit markets is.

- - - Updated - - -

Credit bubble in China won't really affect the rest of the world's finances because foreigners cannot enter it freely. I think it's more about oil sector defaulting on the bank's loans and potential rippling effect.

Why do you think this credit market fear is happening now? Is it because of risk of defaults in the oil sector and the assumed credit bubble in China?

 

[Gerardf]

The majority leader of the Connecticut Senate says he’ll introduce legislation that would allow electric vehicle manufacturers, including Tesla Motors, to sell cars directly to consumers.
Democratic Sen. Bob Duff, from Norwalk, is scheduled to appear Tuesday at a news conference with Tesla representatives to discuss his bill.
Tesla officials said last year they planned to resume efforts to pass state legislation allowing them to open showrooms in Connecticut and sell vehicles directly to consumers. Tesla is currently only allowed to operate a service center in Milford.
The Senate last year failed to take up a bill that would have allowed Tesla.

Source : http://www.nhregister.com/lifestyle/20160209/sen-duff-to-offer-bill-letting-tesla-sell-cars-directly-to-connecticut-consumers. (Via Reddit)

 

[Matt33]

But if they can show they don't need to raise capital in the near term with a nice reveal of the Model 3 in less than two months, this free fall of stock price can be stopped too.

If it will also take a nice reveal of a Model 3 to stop the slide, do you see the slide continuing regardless of what they say in the ER tomorrow? If he said it will only be a partial reveal in March, what could he say that will really calm investors?

 

[JRP3]

Not sure how to interpret this statement:

For now, Tesla insists the Model 3 is still on schedule for production starting next year. Khobi Brooklyn, the Tesla spokeswoman, declined to offer any details about the car beyond its sticker price. "The Model 3 is on time, and everyone is going to learn more about it at the end of March," she said. "That's when we've committed to talking about it and giving a really great update, and that's what we're going to do."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-fantasy-next-tesla-sell-174938345.html

Um, talking about it and a "really great" update? You best be showing us a car girlfriend, or you've got some splanin to do....

 

[jesselivenomore]

Why do you think this credit market fear is happening now? Is it because of risk of defaults in the oil sector and the assumed credit bubble in China?

The exact causes I am not 100% certain. Defaults in the energy sector is for sure a risk - CHK, Glencore etc close to bankruptcy. Keep a close eye on HYG. Lower profitability for European banks due to low/negative interest rates could curb lending, contagion risk perhaps spreading to US banks. The market is screaming there is a problem, what the exact problem is we might have to wait until hindsight(the market won't wait).

 

[Fallenone]

Reassuring production of Model X, commitment to disciplined capex in 2016 and showing a credible prospect of free cash flow positive tomorrow could halt the slide. But if they really show nothing more than rendered pictures in the end of March, the onslaught will continue. Personally I don't think there's a chance of that (just pictures) happening. Rumors these days are getting so absurd and grow like crazy.

If it will also take a nice reveal of a Model 3 to stop the slide, do you see the slide continuing regardless of what they say in the ER tomorrow? If he said it will only be a partial reveal in March, what could he say that will really calm investors?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Not sure how to interpret this statement:


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-fantasy-next-tesla-sell-174938345.html

Um, talking about it and a "really great" update? You best be showing us a car girlfriend, or you've got some splanin to do....

i think that falls in-line with a full unveiling. They don't want to release any details until the unveiling and also don't want to build up unecessary hype for the event, as it will be a hit regardless. I think Tesla is really making efforts to over deliver on their promises and they have the ability to do so with speculation that it might only be pictures (lol.)

 

[FluxCap]

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are now both trading below their 2008 lows. They have both declined by close to 40% since the start of the year. US banks are being dragged down as well and have been the leaders to the downside since Jan 1. Credit default swaps are spiking as if there is financial distress.

I don't think it is a coincidence that TSLA is mirroring these moves. A large portion of TSLA's future growth and current market cap(Model 3) is dependent on further borrowing and capital spending. I believe the market is currently pricing in a much tighter credit environment going forward. Model X delays aren't helpful, but I do not think it is the primary driving force right now. Fear in the credit markets is.

There is "system-wide" fear in the underbelly of the markets right now, I agree. I'm not sure the TSLA weakness is related to credit market fear exclusively though. I think momentum stock re-pricing in a "new normal" environment without Saudis as buyers of last resort, without QE, and without unicorns living up to their valuations in public markets have combined to put pressure on.

I do think there is a significant readjustment upwards after ER tomorrow night, but not enough to see ATH's anytime soon.

 

[dreamingof3]

Not sure how to interpret this statement:


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-fantasy-next-tesla-sell-174938345.html

Um, talking about it and a "really great" update? You best be showing us a car girlfriend, or you've got some splanin to do....

Agree. I noticed she didn't say showing the car. Please be transparent as possible tomorrow Elon & co.

 

[FluxCap]

The exact causes I am not 100% certain. Defaults in the energy sector is for sure a risk - CHK, Glencore etc close to bankruptcy. Keep a close eye on HYG. Lower profitability for European banks due to low/negative interest rates could curb lending, contagion risk perhaps spreading to US banks. The market is screaming there is a problem, what the exact problem is we might have to wait until hindsight(the market won't wait).

Agree 100%, we won't know until it's over.

 

[jhm]

Oil has fallen below $28/b and may take out new lows.

IEA has released their monthly oil report. They still see consumption growing 1.2 mb/d in 2016, but unfortunately OPEC appears set to raise production 1.7 mb/d. They see inventory growing 2 mb/d in Q1, 1.5 mb/d in Q2 and falling to 0.3 mb/d in the second half.

So it looks like the oil market may well not balance this year. So the glut continues, and we may end the year with over 3.35 billion barrels in storage.

I still think that we have a floor between $25 and $30, and that may soon be tested. This floor however is contingent upon oil future rising up to $50 going into 2025. If the futures curve flattens out, the storage floor could be lost. Regardless, I remain bullish on the view that declining commodity prices improve Tesla's production costs.

 

[Gerardf]

Not sure how to interpret this statement:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-fantasy-next-tesla-sell-174938345.html
Um, talking about it and a "really great" update? You best be showing us a car girlfriend, or you've got some splanin to do....

They should really be much more carefull how they express themselves. Someone might again create a big negative panic story from this statement. Specially after Elon's 'M3 picture' answer.

.. And yes, they better show a prototype at the unveil. Hope / assume this will get confirmed at the ER tomorrow.

P.S. Jhm :
Four Days After Predicting Oil Will Double, T. Boone Pickens Sells All Oil Holdings | Zero Hedge

 

[tray loader]

Reassuring production of Model X, commitment to disciplined capex in 2016 and showing a credible prospect of free cash flow positive tomorrow could halt the slide. But if they really show nothing more than rendered pictures in the end of March, the onslaught will continue. Personally I don't think there's a chance of that (just pictures) happening. Rumors these days are getting so absurd and grow like crazy.

That´s the outlook.Of course that´s critical.
But whats elementary to the companies survival right now is a diversification of management responsibilities.

• a strong, controlling EXISTING TSLA board.
• responsible, articulate managers in quality control,engineering and design.Last time I heard someone talk, someone explain was Peter Rawlinson (maybe they should´t have fired him…) no more show
• a responsible and articulate PR and investor relation.no more show


what we witness in this "door gate" is a similar tactic like the VW scandal.Elon mimicking Piech, Winterkorn and Horn.
Neglect and procastrinate until the whole company is brainwashed.
Complete fixation on one saviour instead of a coordinated team effort.
There´s no truth in a cheating habit.These sh*** doors were ultra complicated to ride, heck every chiropractic can write books about the lower back issues and point load.
Sometimes this is harder to accept that than to build a reusable spaceship.

What´s needed now is a 100% dedication to this problem, or we´ll witness a domino effect.
The big investors are on their way out.This dilution is more than a shorting scenario.
Deutsche Bank, CS, Apple all get punished for neglecting the future and not cleaning out their closets.

- - - Updated - - -

i think that falls in-line with a full unveiling. They don't want to release any details until the unveiling and also don't want to build up unecessary hype for the event, as it will be a hit regardless. I think Tesla is really making efforts to over deliver on their promises and they have the ability to do so with speculation that it might only be pictures (lol.)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elect...174938345.html
another fog bomb for now.

 

[hockeythug]

Added another one to the list.