Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

It's like waiting in line for a console release or the latest iPhone, haha! Camp outside the store 1 week in advance.

Everyone thinking of Model 3 reservations please take the poll here http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-reserving-at-the-reveal-at-a-store-or-online

 

[Runarbt]

Don't forget to fly to Australia. Stores will open there first on March 31st!

O...I need to see the wife want a Australia family vacation!

 

[Gerardf]

Queue of people camping outside a Tesla office to be allowed to reserve a car. Would be unbelievable.
That should make the press everywhere (and result in emergency meetings in some board rooms

 

[Krugerrand]

I used to think this too, until Elon's tweets. Allowing people to go to one of the hundreds of stores around the world in order to place a reservation will take a lot of "early adopter heat" off the web servers.

I don't think so. There are a lot of people waiting for this car and with such an attainable deposit amount...hmm....nope, broken Internet for sure.

 

[Gerardf]

13 % up. Shorts are risking to loose a good part of their paper-profits..

 

[dreamingof3]

Squeeze em out boys. HOLD your shares tight. It's our time-model 3 is gonna be a blockbuster.

 

[phigment]

So with regards to price movement, I'm curious who would be selling at this time? Would it be automated triggers getting hit?

Even if you were shorting, I'd think it would be beneficial to wait for the initial pop to complete and get a better price.

 

[ggr]

I was pretty surprised to see it too! As I said in one of those posts, exercising options is viewed differently than open market purchases or sales for these purposes. This is especially true when cash is used to cover the exercise price and taxes and the shares are held in full following exercise, as Elon has done. I'm guessing that's how they got comfortable.

i will also stress that there aren't hard and fast rules here, it's a judgment call. Oddly, some companies tend to give CEOs more leeway in this regard because the view is "well, when DOESNT a CEO have material non public info about the stock of the company he runs?" If you applied that rule strictly then top management could never trade in the stock.

When the executive exercises and holds the stock, it has no effect on the market capitalization of the company, because the options were already taken into account. It makes a very minor difference to the balance sheet only. It can't directly affect the stock price. So while I agree it's a bit of a gray area, I don't believe it would violate the SEC rules. That it signals confidence to the market may, of course, have a real effect.

 

[aznt1217]

So with regards to price movement, I'm curious who would be selling at this time? Would it be automated triggers getting hit?

This is an incredibly complex question. The point about staying solvent goes both ways for longs and shorts. Many people are short TSLA, this is a given. The question is how long can they stay solvent. For those who are long shares, we can hold to perpetuity. If you are short shares we're talking potential for unlimited loss. If you are playing options, entirely different ball game.

Alot of what will be going on for short term price movements are going to be judgement based. Judgement that are dictated by feelings. Now that we have confidence that the X ramp is okay (shockingly stuff like chrome trim and seals were holding it up-- non essentials) and that Model 3 has a confirmed date... I am expecting a Tsunami unless people who are short are absolutely hard headed. I linked the Model S beta reveal a couple posts back-- it's the same bloody thing except at a more mature phase of the company's life.

 

[dreamingof3]

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

 

[aznt1217]

When the executive exercises and holds the stock, it has no effect on the market capitalization of the company, because the options were already taken into account. It makes a very minor difference to the balance sheet only. It can't directly affect the stock price. So while I agree it's a bit of a gray area, I don't believe it would violate the SEC rules. That it signals confidence to the market may, of course, have a real effect.

It can for the available shares to short. It's also a confidence booster signal IMO

- - - Updated - - -

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

No need for it.

 

[pGo]

I guess east coast will have advantage first time in reserving a Tesla. I am going to take advantage of this situation knowing that may not result into first deliveries here.

 

[Renaud]

13 % up. Shorts are risking to loose a good part of their paper-profits..

I had almost forgotten the taste of a short squeeze ;-)
Ok it's not exactly that, but it's pretty good to see anyway and is reassuring.

 

[Adm]

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

A commercial would increase the chance of a server crash. Better to wait and see how reservations go. It won't be until end of 2017 before deliveries start. There is plenty of time for commercials if needed. Chances are, clients/fans will make a better one and than that will go viral.

 

[phigment]

This is an incredibly complex question. The point about staying solvent goes both ways for longs and shorts. Many people are short TSLA, this is a given. The question is how long can they stay solvent. For those who are long shares, we can hold to perpetuity. If you are short shares we're talking potential for unlimited loss. If you are playing options, entirely different ball game.

Alot of what will be going on for short term price movements are going to be judgement based. Judgement that are dictated by feelings. Now that we have confidence that the X ramp is okay (shockingly stuff like chrome trim and seals were holding it up-- non essentials) and that Model 3 has a confirmed date... I am expecting a Tsunami unless people who are short are absolutely hard headed. I linked the Model S beta reveal a couple posts back-- it's the same bloody thing except at a more mature phase of the company's life.

Thanks. I guess the macro performance in europe may have also given a little confidence to people looking to gain from a drop in price. I was a little surprised with the drop in AH at first.

 

[Krugerrand]

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

Nope. No need.

 

[sub]

FredTMC, a big salute to you for calling two controversial ERs correctly as positive. I'd go into battle with you any day.

I was with Fred both Times.

OK so I read through the transcript of yesterday's CC. Not bad. I guess I was so distracted by chatting with my wife, two different groups of friends, view/posting on TMC and another forum while listening to CC. Still not optimistic about TE generating meaningful net profit this year. But for everything else, quite good. And on my previous comment on EM's "vagueness" of $100/kWh, I totally take that back. Appears I missed a lot of context yesterday.

respect gained.

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

They are going to do a commercial, except it's going to be free and it's going to be live on every local and national news cast. What percentage of people do you think are unaware there is a Tesla store in their town? Probably less in the towns where Tesla is in a Mall, but still a high number. This is going to create a massive buzz. I've always laughed and mocked the idiots waiting in line for an iphone, I may have to dig out the tent for this one. closest stores to me are 2 hours.

 

[Gerardf]

No commercials needed. News will be all over the press when servers crash and people queue up at the Tesla centers to be able to reserve a car that will be probably not get for 2 years. (the waiting list will be long very quick).

Don't think that ever happened for a car.. or will ever happen again.

 

[JRP3]

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?

It would be a total waste of money. Demand is going to be insane, why spend money to create any more?

 

[Fallenone]

I don't think they need to do commercials for M3 until a lot closer to 2020 the earliest.

Who here thinks money spent on a MOdel 3 commercial will be money well spent for Tesla?