Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Do you have a link to such statement? We need to parse that carefully, if he really meant what you read. BTW, Elon and Tesla has said many things (2nd row fold flat seat for Model X, 691 hp for model S, second row seats cause of X delay, etc. etc.) which were later found untrue. For example, when he says "exponential Model X ramp", he doesn't mean exponential by any acceptable definition.

Secondly, it may be a gigantic backlog of reservations, but they are not "orders" yet. In CNBC videos, Lebeau said very clearly that the test drives were to convert those to firm orders.

I'm not sure why I bother - I'm sure you will find some tortured way to spin this into a negative - but here's the CC transcript. It says exactly what I said it does.

Adam Jonas (Analyst - Morgan Stanley):
Okay. Then a follow-up. On test drives, outside of Company-sponsored events, surprised we haven't seen any full comprehensive independent test drives from the major magazines. Is there anything preventing -- I think people on the call can understand if there would be of the earlier-produced units that maybe you wouldn't want released quite yet, but is there anything preventing the magazines from gaining access to the early vehicles, the Model X's, and conducting a full road test of the vehicle? If there is, when can we expect some of the first reviews, do you think?

Elon Musk (Chairman & CEO):We provided cars to the media, largely because we -- to the degree that we could suppress demand for the X, we did. We took basically every action we could to suppress demand for the X, because production wasn't -- we needed to get production up. There was no point in amplifying demand if production cannot meet that demand. We did our best to really suppress demand, or certainly not encourage demand.That will obviously change in the balance of this year as we get cars to stores, because there have been no Model X's at stores. No Model X's available for test drives. In the coming months, I think probably next month, you will start to see some reviews in magazines and what not. The feedback from customers we've gotten has been very positive.

 

[Brian2527]

It's an annual rate, paid out monthly.



I can exit anytime I want - in fact I sold some TSLA to buy more SCTY a few weeks ago. I don't know exactly how they do they all the accounting, but I'm not locked in.

As I understand the terms (and I'm attaching the Fidelity brochure on this for anyone who wants more detail), basically my only risk is if Fidelity goes bankrupt... Edit: actually even then I'm covered - my collateral is being held by an outside bank.



It's worth looking into. I've got TSLA shares with Fidelity, Scottrade, and Ameritrade - only Fidelity is offering me $$$ for loaning them out.



You know...that would explain why only Fidelity is offering this to me. My Fidelity account is an IRA that doesn't have a margin option. Scottrade and Ameritrade are margin accounts...

Here's the official brochure from Fidelity:View attachment 113545

- - - Updated - - -

Which reminds me - I thought I read somewhere that if you create a limit sell order (say Tesla at $240), the brokerage can't loan out your shares. Anyone know if there's any truth to that? Maybe the margin accounts can increase the short pain some by doing that...

I called the broker I used to work with, Merrill Edge, and here is a summary of their answer:

(1) they don't pay the share holders (Long) for the stock Merrill Edge lends out to short sellers. And the right to do this is stipulated in the Margin Lending Client Agreement, Item 10. Lending Agreement.

(2) To place an artificially high limited sell order won't stop them from lending the shares out. (My guess is that the regulation does not view lending out shares as hampering client's liquidity, even in the face of an imminent sell order)

(3) Since the whole thing is related to the margin account, by moving your holding to a cash account would stop shares from lending out. And specifically at Merrill Edge self directed brokerage branch, any customer can have one margin and multiple cash accounts. So if one does not want to lend one's share out, he can just open another cash account (can be viewed all within the same online login id) and move your holding there.

(4) I just did (3), and that's what causes the TSLA price spike today at 10:27am.

(5) item (4) is a joke.

Godspeed.

Thanks.

 

[TSLAopt]

I'm not seeing the high rates to borrow TSLA yet. Fidelity's paying me 3% to loan out my TSLA, but SCTY's up to an incredible 24.5%! Would love to see TSLA in the 20s - I have a lot more $$$ there than SCTY.

At IB right now you must pay 12.14% if you want to borrow TSLA and you must pay a whopping 80.81% to borrow SCTY.
If you own either of these stocks then IB can automatically lend it out as long as your accounts NAV is over $100k (even from an IRA account) and IB splits the lending revenue 50/50 with you (you would receive approximately half of the above referenced rates).

Please PM me if you have a large acct and are interested as I can help get your questions answered and get you proper treatment for account opening/transfer/training.



Please keep in mind that IB is a technology company more than a broker in many ways. For example, IB has relatively few programmers that write code which automates so many of its back office processes/operations (e.g. securities lending) while all other brokers (e.g. Fidelity) employ armies of back office people key-punching, using spreadsheets, and manually processing tasks such as stock lending. In short, this is why anyone who wants to have their shares lent out will do much better when having their account at IB vs. anywhere else, because IB can be much more efficient at it with their automation.

 

[BriansTesla]

I guess I'll have to call my Fidelity rep. I have a bunch of shares in IRA's and more in a margin account and I don't see any income from loaning shares. Mostly I don't want to help the shorts.

 

[dreamingof3]

I guess I'll have to call my Fidelity rep. I have a bunch of shares in IRA's and more in a margin account and I don't see any income from loaning shares. Mostly I don't want to help the shorts.

If you don't have a margin account=IRA they can't lend your shares. If you have a regular individual or joint account with margin authorization they can automatically lend your shares unless you put in a limit sell order. Place a limit sell order for GTC for $999.99 per share.

 

[BriansTesla]

If you don't have a margin account=IRA they can't lend your shares. If you have a regular individual or joint account with margin authorization they can automatically lend your shares unless you put in a limit sell order. Place a limit sell order for GTC for $999.99 per share.

Thanks for the help. The highest limit it would let me set was 50% of the bid price so I set for $282. At least those 2600 shares are off the table.

 

[dreamingof3]

Thanks for the help. The highest limit it would let me set was 50% of the bid price so I set for $282. At least those 2600 shares are off the table.

Nice! I wish everyone would do this who has shares of Tesla long in a margin account!

 

[mmd]

I'm not sure why I bother - I'm sure you will find some tortured way to spin this into a negative - but here's the CC transcript. It says exactly what I said it does.

Adam Jonas (Analyst - Morgan Stanley):
Okay. Then a follow-up. On test drives, outside of Company-sponsored events, surprised we haven't seen any full comprehensive independent test drives from the major magazines. Is there anything preventing -- I think people on the call can understand if there would be of the earlier-produced units that maybe you wouldn't want released quite yet, but is there anything preventing the magazines from gaining access to the early vehicles, the Model X's, and conducting a full road test of the vehicle? If there is, when can we expect some of the first reviews, do you think?

Elon Musk (Chairman & CEO):We provided cars to the media, largely because we -- to the degree that we could suppress demand for the X, we did. We took basically every action we could to suppress demand for the X, because production wasn't -- we needed to get production up. There was no point in amplifying demand if production cannot meet that demand. We did our best to really suppress demand, or certainly not encourage demand.That will obviously change in the balance of this year as we get cars to stores, because there have been no Model X's at stores. No Model X's available for test drives. In the coming months, I think probably next month, you will start to see some reviews in magazines and what not. The feedback from customers we've gotten has been very positive.

Yes The whole text in bold was spoken in past tense on Feb 10th I italicized the part that may be happening now, or soon.

 

[McMuggets]

"But, I only brought up the supercharger pause because I am shocked that rarely does anyone mention things about the actual company in this thread. No discussion of the infrastructure build-out, no discussion about the ramp up issues with the X, no discussion about the number of X's delivered so far. It's like people want to ignore anything potentially negative because they can't handle it, but then they're shocked when the stock price goes down. You have to understand and know all of it if you want to have a good idea about where the stock is headed - even in the short term." -Buddyroe

I must say this Supercharger talk is probably only relevant in that the USA is largely covered and just needs upgrades to its existing Supercharger stations (more charging bays, etc.). Could it be more perfect? Of course. But reality is that Tesla needs to concentrate on other foreign markets as well as keep cash-burn lower, in order to shoot toward positive cashflow from overall operations. I do not know any other car company that is building cars and simultaneously building it's own network of fueling stations. New Superchargers are for markets that need more sales penetration, whereas the US market is already quite mature. If I were the CFO Wheeler, I would direct most Supercharger monies toward markets that would bring the most unit car sales per station. To concentrate so crazily on Superchargers (buddyroe) as some sort of reliable linear indicator of sales growth, is a stretch.

Regarding the Model X "issues" etc... I think it has been discussed over and over in this thread. But there's only so many ways to discuss speculations about windshields, falcon doors, and rubber sealing. The big picture is that more and more X's are being delivered to rave reviews and more reservations for the X are being invited to configure. That's the truth.

 

[Brian2527]

Thanks for the help. The highest limit it would let me set was 50% of the bid price so I set for $282. At least those 2600 shares are off the table.

Just remember when TSLA get close to 282 and making new highs to cancel your GTC order. BY that time you can put in a new one with limit price to $420.:smile:

 

[Fallenone]

Fidelity had 0 (call rep) at the close of yesterday. Now they have 1MM+

Well there were no shares to short at the end of the day at Interactive Brokers. Today they found 200,000 more at a fee rate of 12.1%. So far 50,000 are gone. I'm curious to see if there is a reversal around the time that number gets to 0. Of course, being only one broker the picture is not complete enough to make a real prediction. Also, so far today it looks like TSLA is really just trading with the market.

 

[dreamingof3]

Fidelity had 0 (call rep) at the close of yesterday. Now they have 1MM+

They might lend out their 13 million they have in holdings. It's a way to produce extra income for the funds.

 

[Yonki]

They might lend out their 13 million they have in holdings. It's a way to produce extra income for the funds.

Makes sense, but why would they pay me 3% to loan out my shares before they loaned out theirs (which would earn them 3% more)? The only reason I can think of is that they have enough shares to have a large effect on the short action and they have some sort of strategy around that. Imagine if Fidelity loaned out a large amount of their shares only to pull them back all at once...

 

[maoing]

Another production X VIN 23x on its way for delivery, actual delivery might happen a few weeks later.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ivery-Update?p=1396665&viewfull=1#post1396665

anybody spotted production X delivery with VIN > 300?

Almost two weeks passed, two production X VIN 2xx (264/251) to be delivered tomorrow.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-P90D/page23?p=1388073&viewfull=1#post1388073
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...duction-P90D?p=1387708&viewfull=1#post1387708

 

[dreamingof3]

Makes sense, but why would they pay me 3% to loan out my shares before they loaned out theirs (which would earn them 3% more)? The only reason I can think of is that they have enough shares to have a large effect on the short action and they have some sort of strategy around that. Imagine if Fidelity loaned out a large amount of their shares only to pull them back all at once...

This actually happened on the episode of Billions called "short squeeze". A broker called away shares from a short, so that short in turn had to find another place to borrow or cover the short. Knowing that Fidelity as a firm doesn't like shorts, there might be a short trap in progress. (I hope)

 

[Bgarret]

Nice Citron rebuttal article from Motley Fool, basically says Andrew Left is sitting downstairs in his mom's basement eating Cheetos and trolling the Internet.

I can almost hear his mom yelling down the stairs, "Don't get that orange dust on your keyboard, Andrew....chicken soup will be ready in 10 minutes. You only get another hour of screen time!"

Citron Is Wrong About Tesla Motors (Again) -- The Motley Fool

 

[ev-enthusiast]

A close for the week above max pain would be a bullish sign after the recent run up.

 

[Krugerrand]

Rumor in the SCTY thread that Elon Musk is going to buy SCTY. No confirmation of this, just passing it along.

 

[Papafox]

The Citron short announcement is backfiring. Longs saw that this short attack could hardly budge the stock downward and so we see TSLA climbing because the perceived downward risk has been reduced after this unsuccessful attack by a well-known short. The only question is what percentage of the buyers are shorts with cold feet who are covering and what percentage are new longs?

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA "running of the Bulls". $192.50

hello shorts. Mr left (citron) tried and failed. I'd be getting nervous if I were you.

Model 3 launch looms...