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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Hello TE5LA and others. I've been a long time lurker, but have always felt I really have very little to contribute against the astonishing expertise already expressed in this forum.

But now I can make a small contribution which may be of use to TE5LA. I invest in TSLA through an ISA (A kind of tax free sand pit for UK investors to play in). I use HSBC who provide an Invest Direct Account. Transaction fees are a little steep for US securities, about $30 per trade, but there is the benefit of not having to wait 3 days before redeploying the proceeds of a share sale. Sort of like trading on margin without having margin. It's a simple product...no fancy stuff like option trading or borrowing shares to short.

But I wouldn't want to short anyway...the mis-steps we have seen so far in TeslaMotors are in my opinion absolutely minuscule in comparison to the massive potential of the vision.

And by the way, I live in Cornwall also!

Ukland Wombat - Thanks very much for the advice, i'll check them out. It seems that most products are set up for the UK markets...
 
I can't wait until March 24 so we can find out how many shorts have covered (if any) as of today. I will base my next purchase on those numbers. Would be great if its even higher then the last one.
Some technical based shorts have covered. I have no doubt about that. It's just mechanical. The fundamental based shorts probably is scratching their heads. Overall I think short interest dropped. From long term view, this really doesn't matter. It's way more important to watch how Tesla is progressing. Right now it's Model 3 reservation, Model X ramp up, autonomous driving development, and Gigafactory progress. Every time shorts rig TSLA lower, I accelerate my purchase. Otherwise, I just watch every entry point to add more shares. TSLA is my only position without a stop loss. Shorts can not do much about it.
 
Yeah, I wouldn't put it past a Clinton or Sanders administration, but I'd like to think that it is not needed for the next 10 years. My hope is that by 2020 Tesla has battery costs low enough to give them an absolute costadvantage over ICE. When that happens, there is little economic rationale for further subsidization. Indeed the politics of subsidies could stall mass adoption as people avoid buying EVs purely as a political statement. OTOH, conservatives are pretty smart about taking tax breaks personally, even when they oppose they politics that created the tax breaks. So I may be overstating the case.

From a purely self interested shareholder perspective, we might not want to see tax credits extended past 2020 because the credit will do more to help competitors than Tesla. For example, a $7500 credit is about a 25% subsidy for a Leaf, but a 5% to 10% subsidy for a Model S. Extending the credit beyond 2020 could be more about economically proping up laggards in Detroit than really advancing sustainable transport. Is Tesla better off allowing laggards to go out of business leaving factories behind for pennies on the dollar? Perhaps.

Stuff to ponder.

In my view, money is money. A long term $7.5K ITC will encourage greater demand which will push for faster rate of growth by Tesla. It's all the better if Model 3 competes against a Camry than a 3-series (Add: on price).

Most other automakers are dead anyway you slice it. You can given them a 50% ITC they still won't be able to compete. They simply don't have the expertise, know-how, sales channels, leadership or most importantly the culture to get ahead of themselves.

Tesla only needs a few good factories. In many cases, it might be best to start fresh than inherit some old rusted mess and then cleanup. None of the old tools or bots will be helpful anyway. At best you get four walls, roof, and toilets. Not sure if that's worth the hassle in most cases. For example Gigafactory is being built from scratch. So is the Buffalo panel factory.

In terms of politics, lets them cry all they want. We too cry about unpriced-externalities, tax incentives for oil companies and such. Crying vs crying ties out. That works for me :)
 
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I have had two interviews where I am paid $300 for a one to two hour visit by a marketing firm who holds their client a secret. The first I strongly suspect was paid for by Tesla. It was about 2 years ago. I am asked all sorts of questions not just about cars but lifestyle, politics, and they even take pictures of the rooms in my house. Second $300 interview was a one hour interview over the phone. Same sorts of questions. Today, BMW's design subsidiary in Ventura County has inquired to interview me in my home. Two hours they said. Pays $300. Hmm....I'd say they are interested in who these Tesla owners are and what we are all about.
 
It's amusing when new shorts come barging in all excited to spew the same tired logic that all the other shorts have been spewing for many years. Either southpaw is new to TSLA and doesn't realize this, or he thinks TMC is full of morons. Sure wish some of these shorts would come up with something new, I got bored of their usual drivel long ago.
 
Ukland Wombat - Thanks very much for the advice, i'll check them out. It seems that most products are set up for the UK markets...

Yep TE5LA, you are correct. What I forgot to say if you go with HSBC is that you should ask for the product "Invest Direct Plus", that's the one that allows trading in US shares, not Invest Direct.

Also, if you have an Invest Direct Plus ISA your trades must settle in sterling, but the good thing is you won't be stiffed on the currency exchange rate...you get the interbank market midpoint rate precisely to six or seven decimal places as it happens to be at that particular second no matter in which direction the conversion happens.

If you have the non ISA version of Invest Direct Plus (I use both) you can even have your trades settled through your own US dollar account (with HSBC's US broker), but not in the ISA version unfortunately...(that's probably a universal condition imposed on all share trading ISAs and not so much a quirk of HSBC). So trading US shares through an ISA involves a little currency speculation whether or not you intended it so. Good luck!
 
The valuation discussion is very interesting to me. There's literally not another company that is growing as fast as TSLA, that requires so much capital to fund that growth, yet has gross margins that are in the mid 20's, and has so little viable competition on the horizon. So there's not a single comparison available, which is why we've seen the stock price reach 280 a year and a half ago...and hit the 140's as recently as a few weeks ago. Compare it to F or GM? Sure, some people do...except for the whole lack-of-growth-and-low-margin thing. GOOG or AMZN? It's comparing apples to footballs, and as investors we truly are in uncharted territory. That's why I pay attention to price/revenue, free cash flow, and gross margins.

What is really captivating is the whole Tesla architecture, similar to AAPL. AAPL commands huge profit margins in an industry famous for slim margins because of their architecture. I see similarities in TSLA....for example, why on earth would anyone buy an EV from GM, when they could buy a Tesla that comes with supercharging capability as well as the ability to improve over time via over-the-air software updates? So there's a real possibility that even when competition does come, TSLA will still command a premium for its products.
 
In my view, money is money. A long term $7.5K ITC will encourage greater demand which will push for faster rate of growth by Tesla. It's all the better if Model 3 competes against a Camry than a 3-series (Add: on price).

Most other automakers are dead anyway you slice it. You can given them a 50% ITC they still won't be able to compete. They simply don't have the expertise, know-how, sales channels, leadership or most importantly the culture to get ahead of themselves.

Tesla only needs a few good factories. In many cases, it might be best to start fresh than inherit some old rusted mess and then cleanup. None of the old tools or bots will be helpful anyway. At best you get four walls, roof, and toilets. Not sure if that's worth the hassle in most cases. For example Gigafactory is being built from scratch. So is the Buffalo panel factory.

In terms of politics, lets them cry all they want. We too cry about unpriced-externalities, tax incentives for oil companies and such. Crying vs crying ties out. That works for me :)
Ok, I guess the main losers here is the oil industry, and they can hire lobbyists and a few politicians to defend their industry.
 
It's amusing when new shorts come barging in all excited to spew the same tired logic that all the other shorts have been spewing for many years. Either southpaw is new to TSLA and doesn't realize this, or he thinks TMC is full of morons. Sure wish some of these shorts would come up with something new, I got bored of their usual drivel long ago.

I really, really wish I could up vote this, give points, Like this or buy you a beer. Any way +1.
 
I think they already have. What will the beef be when 7500 credit is done next year
That's the thing. Tesla can become a free enterprise model business. It built its own charging network without asking the government to do it. It builds products that Americans can be proud of. It does not submit to the cronism of auto dealers. Sure, it got some tax breaks in California and Nevada, but that is standard practice for all businesses that local governments try to attract. All businesses utilize government incentives and tax breaks, but Tesla is really not seeking or requiring these things. It simply wants access to markets. Oh, yeah, and Tesla has been a major job creator. The level of entrepreneurship is head and should above most US corporations. So what's the beef?
 
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