Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Looks like "Devonshire Research" announced a short position. Based on the usual short-sighted FUD. Yawn.

www.valuewalk.com/2016/03/devonshire-short-tesla-motors-inc-tsla/
Exactly my thought! These factory workers don't buy new cars. they drive old pick up trucks.
Were they bro beaten to reserve one? Was it mandatory?
Were the Tesla executives who benefit from a stock pop limited to 2 as well?

This stinks like another rumor started by a TSLA long.
You can look for yourself on Google maps. TI'm surprised to see trucks seem to be only 10-20% of the lot. A lot of these people have family also, so they may want one for their wife or kid. Who knows, maybe the surprise will be an El-3mino (electric El Camino).
 
  • Funny
Reactions: austinEV
I called the Scottsdale Tesla store today, the polite young man answering the phone said they've been getting 20-30 calls per day about whether M3 reservations will be taken at their location on the 31st.

20-30 calls per day suggests that there will be a line of hundreds at the Scottsdale Tesla store... I'll be one of them as will a friend.
 
I called the Scottsdale Tesla store today, the polite young man answering the phone said they've been getting 20-30 calls per day about whether M3 reservations will be taken at their location on the 31st.

20-30 calls per day suggests that there will be a line of hundreds at the Scottsdale Tesla store... I'll be one of them as will a friend.


I am in the Phoenix area and I am planning to be one of those hundreds of people that will be at the Scottsdale store. How early is everyone planning to be at their local store?
 
I called the Scottsdale Tesla store today, the polite young man answering the phone said they've been getting 20-30 calls per day about whether M3 reservations will be taken at their location on the 31st.

20-30 calls per day suggests that there will be a line of hundreds at the Scottsdale Tesla store... I'll be one of them as will a friend.
Wow that is huge as there could be a whole lot more people who dont call and just show up. Ill try to call local stores tomorrow and see what they say.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LargeHamCollider
Planning for 9am
(for 10am store open, even though they won't take reservations till 1pm.)
PS- really gonna show up at 8:30 - just posting 9 so everybody shows up after me...
Whoops

I was told today on a visit to the Highland Park, Illinois Tesla store that they will not open the store until Noon CDT on March 31st rather than the usual opening time of 10:00 am.
 
I called the Scottsdale Tesla store today, the polite young man answering the phone said they've been getting 20-30 calls per day about whether M3 reservations will be taken at their location on the 31st.

20-30 calls per day suggests that there will be a line of hundreds at the Scottsdale Tesla store... I'll be one of them as will a friend.

There are around 210 Tesla stores around the world. For an average of 300 March 31 reservations per store, there would be total of 63K of reservations...
 
Devonshire.

Just to debunk this thing from Devonshire aka SURFHACKER in as few lines as possible for avoidance of timewaste:

Link
: http://www.devonshireresearch.com/research/Devonshire Research Group - Tesla Motors - TSLA - Public Release.pdf


Firstly, it is, but it is largely an intelligently written and well drawn sleight of hand. The object, just like a card trick is to ignore the simple fact that the card is up the trickster's sleeve the whole while and to make as much fuss as possible about the distraction.

It comes in 3 sections. First one is headlined:

"TSLA is attempting more vertical integration than any auto company has recently tried".

Naturally the exception is the company whose trajectory is the most analogous to Tesla. That would be the Ford Motor Company with the Model T. Probably no need to say any more about that - except perhaps to highlight a curious coincidence. Ford vertically integrated the forging and machining of Vanadium Steel Alloy - an innovation at the time that enabled relative light-weighting of its vehicles compared to US contemporaries for a distinct technical advantage.

The second section deals with patents.

Tesla's move to open source patents is an excellent defense against patent suits. It is would be very difficult to gain the sympathy of a judge that Tesla is violating a patent when the first line of Tesla's defense is that they are most likely using most of ours, they certainly have not rejected our offer to give them access and this case is brought in bad faith. The most damaging (libelous) allegation is that Tesla is potentially exposed to a patent suit on its motor designs, which is of course nonsense given the fact that the basic premise of the AC induction motor is a very long expired patent (one filed by Nikola Tesla himself) and Tesla Motors' iteration is is Tesla Motor's own patented design.

Commercially, Tesla will know full well that no ICE auto maker can use its patents to build a competitive EV, not without hastening the implosion of the ICE business sustaining that competitor. Lastly, startups are no threat to Tesla no matter how well funded, not even Apple. By definition they are more than a decade behind Tesla's pace and the most likely path to any such project's success after almost inevitable failure to make competitive headway against Tesla is to collapse into cooperation with Tesla on batteries, charging and OTA network services.

The Third section deals with environmental impact of EVs.

This is just a predicated upon hard wiring EVs to a coal plant and failure to recycle batteries at end of life. Neither of which premise is remotely true under any circumstances in regards to Tesla EVs, current or future and indeed Coal is being actively phased out in practically all current Tesla markets (and likely all future markets too, thinking of India for example) while renewable additions to the grid in all current markets drastically out-pace the compensating rate of EV adoption including a super-prevalence of solar PV installed on EV owners' homes which in and of itself destroys the entire premise of arguments like this. Tesla has always had 100% recycling provision in place via contractors and of course the Gigafactory will become an end of life recycling plant taking up that function at scale. As regards the supposed toxicity of Cobalt (a trace mineral constituent of dietary supplements) - the author is clearly confused with Cadmium (as was used in Nickel Cadmium batteries or NiCd before it was banned across the entire civilized world owing to toxicity and substituted with the roughly equivalent Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH type). Cadmium quite unlike Cobalt is a toxic heavy metal. Lithium-Ion batteries including Tesla's NCA iteration are ostensibly landfill-safe (which all heavy metals such as Lead and Cadmium are definitely not).
 
Last edited by a moderator:
It’s almost comical the way this apparently brand new Devonshire Research Group suddenly pops up and rehashes all of the apparently clueless (more likely intentionally deceptive) FUD that Tesla short sellers like themselves have for a long time gleefully shared with each other. The financial media is even more laughably sad in the way that they immediately spread such a silly press release without any investigation of who sent it or why they might have done so. The hedge fund algobots appear to have reacted in an equally ignorant fashion.
 
It’s almost comical the way this apparently brand new Devonshire Research Group suddenly pops up and rehashes all of the apparently clueless (more likely intentionally deceptive) FUD that Tesla short sellers like themselves have for a long time gleefully shared with each other. The financial media is even more laughably sad in the way that they immediately spread such a silly press release without any investigation of who sent it or why they might have done so. The hedge fund algobots appear to have reacted in an equally ignorant fashion.
Unfortunately it's all about the clicks and money. Apparently talking about Tesla gets you that...
 
Devonshire.

Just to debunk this thing from Devonshire aka SURFHACKER in as few lines as possible for avoidance of timewaste:

Link
: http://www.devonshireresearch.com/research/Devonshire Research Group - Tesla Motors - TSLA - Public Release.pdf


Firstly, it is bullshit, but it is largely an intelligently written and well drawn sleight of hand. The object, just like a card trick is to ignore the simple fact that the card is up the trickster's sleeve the whole while and to make as much fuss as possible about the distraction.

It comes in 3 sections. First one is headlined:

"TSLA is attempting more vertical integration than any auto company has recently tried".

Naturally the exception is the company whose trajectory is the most analogous to Tesla. That would be the Ford Motor Company with the Model T. Probably no need to say any more about that.

The second section deals with patents.

Tesla's move to open source patents is an excellent defense against patent suits. It is would be very difficult to gain the sympathy of a judge that Tesla is violating a patent when the first line of Tesla's defense is that they are most likely using most of ours, they certainly have not rejected our offer to give them access and this case is brought in bad faith. The most damaging (libelous) allegation is that Tesla is potentially exposed to a patent suit on its motor designs, which is of course nonsense given the fact that the basic premise of the AC induction motor is a very long expired patent (one filed by Nikola Tesla himself) and Tesla Motors' iteration is is Tesla Motor's own patented design.

Tesla will know full well that no ICE auto maker can use its patents to build an competitive EV, not without hastening the implosion of the ICE business sustaining that competitor. Lastly, startups are no threat to Tesla no matter how well funded, not even Apple. By definition they are more than a decade behind Tesla's pace and the most likely path to any such project's success after almost inevitable failure to make competitive headway against Tesla is to collapse into cooperation with Tesla on batteries, charging and OTA network services.

The Third section deals with environmental impact of EVs.

This is just a bunch of crap predicated upon hard wiring EVs to a coal plant and failure to recycle batteries at end of life. Neither of which premise is remotely true under any circumstances in regards to Tesla EVs, current or future and indeed Coal is being actively phased out in practically all current Tesla markets (and likely all future markets too, thinking of India for example) while renewable additions to the grid in all current markets drastically out-pace the compensating rate of EV adoption which in itself destroys the entire premise of arguments like this. Tesla has always had 100% recycling provision in place via contractors and of course the Gigafactory will become an end of life recycling plant taking up that function at scale. As regards the supposed toxicity of Cobalt (a trace mineral constituent of dietary supplements) - the author is clearly confused with Cadmium which is a toxic heavy metal. Lithium batteries are ostensibly landfill-safe (which all heavy metals such as Lead and Cadmium are definitely not).
Thanks for wading through that. Now follow CDC protocol and take thorough decontamination shower.
 
Flawless product??? What parallel universe do you live in? There is no such thing. A person buying an X is being only slightly unrealistic to think he should have no problems. Service Centers exist to help fix things that weren't caught at the factory. That's how it works.

For you to insist that an owner should expect perfection is deliberately wrong. If you think you are doing a service to the Tesla Community, let me help inform you that you are simply driving the stock down, and many of us think there is a reason you are doing that: follow the money.

Well, I am sorry that I got some dislikes here, just to show you that I read the responses.

I have noticed lately, though, it seems especially when the stock goes up, that some folk take it as a responsibility to tell "both sides of the story". If one side is that a car that costs over $100K should be perfect, well, I wished to put forth the other side. No, you can't expect that. Would it help if I put a smiley face after that?:)
 
There are around 210 Tesla stores around the world. For an average of 300 March 31 reservations per store, there would be total of 63K of reservations...

I don't think this is unrealistic. I wouldn't bet my life on it but very doable. I know I'll be responsible for at least 3, 2 for myself and 1 for a friend that new nothing about the reveal until I told them yesterday. I'm hoping to get a few more in line with me.
 
This is what showed up in my brokerage's quotes system when $TSLA took a little toe dipping the last few hours today. (Since I'm new to trading March 11, it was interesting to see the cost of a decade old used ICE MB model S evaporate from my pond in 1 hour, unlike the rest of the week when I was already up the cost of a new Model 3.)

Social data is turning against Tesla

Here's how I see it: these people wrote about "Tesla Model 3", and found out they have to wait til March 31, 2016 for the next step. So, they don't talk about it any more until March 31. So, a downturn in stats is as much of an indicator of highly interested people waiting for the announcement as it is people who want to actively discuss it. It could even be a sign of increased interest to not discuss it during this impending announcement.

Like a crowd gathered at stadium, hushed in anticipation: This article is interpreting a hushed crowd as an uninterested crowd. But it could be an attentive crowd.

In addition, lots of Model X owners-to-be were waiting for their car to show up, so there was plenty of "where is it?" discussion. As soon as Interstate 5 in California started filling up with truck carriers loaded with Model X's in transit, the "where is it?" discussion almost evaporated.
 
Last edited:
  • Helpful
Reactions: SW2Fiddler
I don't think this is unrealistic. I wouldn't bet my life on it but very doable. I know I'll be responsible for at least 3, 2 for myself and 1 for a friend that new nothing about the reveal until I told them yesterday. I'm hoping to get a few more in line with me.

To just bring some perspective here, if average of 300 reservations per Tesla store for a total of 63K reservations materializes on March 31, that would be three (!) years worth of the maximum production planned by GM for Bolt - on the opening day for Model 3 reservations.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.