Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[phigment]

Did Elon just tell us not to expect too many details tomorrow? (See Twitter)

No, he said "Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil. Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production".

 

[Fallenone]

Actually, I think they do.

Most of those people standing in line outside the Apple Store during the iPhone 6 launch in NYC weren't buying the phone for themselves. They were buying on behalf of gray-market wholesalers from China. The wholesalers apparently distribute wads of cash for people in America to buy the phones.

A new style iPhone typically costs $650 and up to buy in cash. The Plus models in 64GB are $850. That's not that much less than a $1,000 deposit on a Model 3. If a gray market wholesaler from China wanted to scoop up a bunch of Model 3's, all they'd have to do is distribute $1,000 in cash to a bunch of straw buyers to make the reservations. When it's time to make payment, it's trivial to bring a case of Benjamins down to the Tesla Store (assuming 40-50k out the door, that's only 400-500 $100 bills).

The big risk here is that the $1k deposit is tied up for an unknown amount of time. The iPhone is fast cash. Gray marketers flip the iPhones a few days later in China to rich people at 500%+ markup.

Getting the big payoff from a Model 3 would be a more difficult an lengthy process due to transport time.

I'm not doubting the cash in hand for the scalpers, it's the whole process of importing (or smuggle?) the cars from US to China. Customs in both countries and oversea transportation of cars are not quite in reach for scalpers.

Plus you have the close to 2 years of wait, not the best thing scalpers like.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Did Elon just tell us not to expect too many details tomorrow? (See Twitter)

I don't think this is any different than Model S and Model X. First, there was the "concept reveal", which showed the styling and general direction of the car. Then there was the "launch reveal", where Tesla showed production spec vehicles.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just for reference, I've counted 210 (world wide) stores listed on Tesla's website several days ago.

 

[Tenable]

Actually, I think they do.

Most of those people standing in line outside the Apple Store during the iPhone 6 launch in NYC weren't buying the phone for themselves. They were buying on behalf of gray-market wholesalers from China. The wholesalers apparently distribute wads of cash for people in America to buy the phones.

A new style iPhone typically costs $650 and up to buy in cash. The Plus models in 64GB are $850. That's not that much less than a $1,000 deposit on a Model 3. If a gray market wholesaler from China wanted to scoop up a bunch of Model 3's, all they'd have to do is distribute $1,000 in cash to a bunch of straw buyers to make the reservations. When it's time to make payment, it's trivial to bring a case of Benjamins down to the Tesla Store (assuming 40-50k out the door, that's only 400-500 $100 bills).

The big risk here is that the $1k deposit is tied up for an unknown amount of time. The iPhone is fast cash. Gray marketers flip the iPhones a few days later in China to rich people at 500%+ markup.

Getting the big payoff from a Model 3 would be a more difficult an lengthy process due to transport time.

Monetarily I think your premise makes sense. However, I think the risk is far greater than you state. Once the person goes home they can easily come back to the store for a deposit, leaving the scalper SOL.

 

[Bgarret]

Actually, it's a 2+ year wait for Australia, plus these are the people who are there an hour before it opens and doesn't include people who will arrive when the store opens and those who will trickle in throughout the day.

Australia is also one of the few developed countries with no EV incentives.

 

[MikeC]

Ben Kalo was just on CNBC and mentioned that he thought it would be a tremendous success just to show 15,000 reservations being placed in the first week as it took 3 years to get that many reservations for the Model S.

Ben Kallo better be ready to publish an upgrade if that's really what his expectation is.

 

[geneclean55]

No, he said "Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil. Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production".

As someone just posted on twitter "My body is ready. Take me to an other level Elon"

 

[ggr]

I agree. How substantial is the supercharger network in Australia for example?

Not yet "substantial". I think there are 5 or 6, catering to the Sydney-Melbourne travellers. One in Port Macquarie, North of Sydney.

 

[lango]

That Ben expected so low is probably a good sign. The analysts and market will be taken by surprise.

 

[Ulmo]

Did Elon just tell us not to expect too many details tomorrow? (See Twitter)

Yes.

 

[Darren12]

From this article, Here's The Aussie Queue To Pre-Order Tesla's Model 3 it looks to be about 50 people lined up at both Syndey and Melbourne stores (article was posted BEFORE stores opened). Tesla posted this on their Twitter and Facebook page.

There's no guarantees that all of these people are ordering, but it sets the standard for lines at the rest of the stores around the world as they subsequently open. Not that every store is going to have a line of this size or one at all, but IMO lines will be larger overall after seeing this than they otherwise would be. It has me considering going to my store earlier than originally planned.

 

[Papafox]

Very much looking forward to photos of lines at Hong Kong store. I think that will be a hot one.

 

[dc_h]

May be a problem in China, not for any other stores outside China. You can't put a Model S in your carry on luggage and fly to China

Model 3 for China will be made in China. That will reduce the risk.

 

[Tenable]

I think I've found Model 3's first legitimate competitor. ;-)

The Toyota Setsuna Is A Wooden Electric Car That Will Last 100 Years

 

[MikeC]

I think I've found Model 3's first legitimate competitor. ;-)

The Toyota Setsuna Is A Wooden Electric Car That Will Last 100 Years

I'd drive that over a Mirai any day.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla Factory in the works in Suzhou China?
特斯拉中国区负责人确认：管理层正在进行工厂选址 - 特斯拉,Model 3 - IT之家

 

[Fallenone]

Tesla Factory in the works in Suzhou China?
特斯拉中国区负责人确认：管理层正在进行工厂选址 - 特斯拉,Model 3 - IT之家

“我们仍然处在非常初级的阶段，整车制造是一个相当复杂繁琐的工程，所以我们的选择必须非常慎重。”朱晓彤说。由于实现中国本土化生产的一个重要环节，在于确立合适的中方合资伙伴，朱表示目前合资对象没有确定，备选项也没有。
According to Mr. Zhu (head of Tesla China), they are at a very early stage of choosing factory location. No confirmed partners yet, not even a final list of potential partners.

 

[Hogfighter]

100k reservations by April 2 is too conservative, IMHO. It's fun to guess, 'cause that's all anyone is doing. But this is gonna be a sensation.

 

[roblab]

I think I've found Model 3's first legitimate competitor. ;-)

The Toyota Setsuna Is A Wooden Electric Car That Will Last 100 Years

You notice, it's electric. Not hybrid, not hydrogen, not gas with electric assist. See, Toyota knows how to make a car last. And it's not with gas.