Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[The Blue Owl]

Unless it gets extended/increased.

I really hope it won't. I can't wait for Tesla's available credits to expire and see the Model 3 sold out a year in advance at full price, with the Chevy Bolt catching dust on your friendly local dealer's lot despite available incentives.

 

[Julian Cox]

Cheshire Cat Avatar Added.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

It's already above 132,000.

 

[justdoit]

It's really interesting that they're trying to pump up the number of reservations (Elon just retweeted it again). This is obviously very different than before. What incentive can they have for wanting over 100k reservations? That means more people will be waiting anxiously and more pressure to deliver on time, possible loss of S and X sales, more people to communicate updates with (hopefully they'll be better at this), etc.

I really think they want that injection of cash Are there any regulations for what they can do with that money? Can they use it for R and D? Do they need to keep a percentage of it as cash in case people want refunds?

 

[Ulmo]

Here's my takeaways from the Model 3 first reveal:

1. The company is much more focused, less party atmosphere, more business, because this will be their bread and butter, their reason to exist. The show started on time (rather than two hours late). The presentation started at 8:30PM + about 5 minutes and ended before 9PM, less than 30 minutes.

2. According to the reveal, the car is a good basic car. It has the awesome features of safety, electric drive train, and ample room for 5 comfortable adults. While I will want more information, they drove home that the back seat will have plenty of room, including headroom. It looks basically nice, better than most ICE vehicles. It is no cruiser like an S or ship like an X, or slithering athlete like the Roadster, but it is a nice basic car, which is what it is supposed to be. It also will go 0-60 in 6 seconds for the base model, and has a good handling low center of gravity, so decent performance.

3. In the Periscope "First ride #Model3" Be sure to check out the Periscope of "First ride #Model 3" direct video link at Tesla Motors @TeslaMotors, the driver implied the development of the car is at a very mature point right now, even though he said there is a lot to be done (crash testing, tooling). This reinforces to me that not only did they intend to be on target with Model 3, and make a point of being on target with Model 3, but that they are (at least saying they are) on target with it. Elon said "next year", and added "hopefully", but his tone when he said "hopefully" wasn't as ambivalent as it would have been if he were trying to imply it would actually slide back in time more. I think this car won't be that late, and might even be on time!

4. The presenter, CEO Elon Musk, hit all the points: the $35,000 base model will, without ANY options, be a very good car. Most the stuff I mentioned in #2 above. Saving environment, etc., in good presentation.

5. "Over 115,000 {reservations} in the last 24 hours." EM actually said "orders", but I corrected it to "reservations". I wonder if "in the past 24 hours" excludes or includes the employee reservations (Tesla, SpaceX) and current owners.

6. From the top, sides, back, and interior, the car looks great.

7. The front is a novelty. I think we can each chose our own opinion about how well that front will perform in the marketplace.

There I have it. In terms of $TSLA performance:

A. Execution is presented to be doing very well.

B. The marketability of the car seems to be very good.

C. They did leave a bit of differentiation for the Model S and Model X for those that prefer those types of models. I wouldn't have cared, but that's the route they seemed to have taken. It means S and X sales will continue with only a little leaving for the smaller cheaper model.

Now let's find out what really happens! This will be fun.

P.S.: SuperCharging comes standard, not what I would have done.

 

[CaliBear1]

Interesting tweet from EM:

Thanks for tuning in to the Model 3 unveil Part 1! Part 2 is super next level, but that's for later...

Hmmm

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I'm guessing a .cd of .21-.22 looking at it, with 215 miles EPA range that's going to be a 50-55kwh battery in the base model, adjust BOM models accordingly.

Also I'm glad to be wrong on supercharging. It's standard, I assumed I'd be paying 2k for it; this is a really a good sign, they're feeling confident that they can hit cost targets or they'd make it an option.

And it looks s3xy! Mine will be grey...

 

[jhm]

Let's talk Osborne Effect now that we have seen the 3. Could this put a big damper on Model S sales since it is such a good value and very similar looking? Would Tesla really raise the price of the S now?

Love the 3!

I'm still partial to the Model S. Nothing against the Model X or Model 3. The Model S is starting to feel like the classic Tesla, commanding and accomodating. With great alternatives like the X and the 3, certain people will buy the Model S, not because it is the only compelling EV on the market, but because they identify with that car best. They connect with what is unique and special about the Model S. I have no doubt that the Model S will be a beloved and aspirational car for many years to come. The Model S has set the standard.

 

[colettimj]

As a car guy, my sense is no.

The design language of Model S and Model 3 convey very different things. Model S is more traditional in proportions, and it is obviously larger in size. It conveys gravitas and stability. In my short time behind the wheel of a Model S P90D last year, my impression was that the driving experience matches the look. Model S is rock solid, but very obviously a large car and handles as such.

Model 3 is an edgier design, with slightly less conventional proportions due to the "firewall" being moved up to increase cabin space. The front end is very Roadster/Porche. This is a nimble, agile sport sedan.

The analogy that comes to mind is that of the dynamic between the Honda Accord and the Honda Civic. The Accord now is a fairly large sedan. The Civic is still decently sized, but it is a much more nimble car, and has edgier styling.

People who want a great Electric Car now, and can afford a Model S, will buy a Model S. People who want a larger, more traditional sedan will buy a Model S. The Model 3 and Model S are complementary rather than competitive.

My guess is that if you want Ludicrous Mode then you need to jump to S or X. That's not to say that a top-end 3 won't have 0-60 @ 3.8 (to match, for example the BMW M3) but not close to or below 3s.

 

[justdoit]

I'm still partial to the Model S. Nothing against the Model X or Model 3. The Model S is starting to feel like the classic Tesla, commanding and accomodating. With great alternatives like the X and the 3, certain people will buy the Model S, not because it is the only compelling EV on the market, but because they identify with that car best. They connect with what is unique and special about the Model S. I have no doubt that the Model S will be a beloved and aspirational car for many years to come. The Model S has set the standard.

Agree. And even if the S sales do slow down a bit that's probably ok. They still have a lot of pent up demand for the X to fulfill over the next year or so which should allow them to hit their targets.

 

[austinEV]

Model 3:

The front is gorgeous, better than the S. They fixed the awkward transition between the hood and the surrounding body, by far my biggest gripe with the S. I don't love the no-cluster thing, but as much as I reference the center for nav and everything maybe it will work. I have a hard time believing that is the end of the story.

 

[Zaxxon]

Well, I'm impressed. Predictions for open and close tomorrow? I have no idea but would like to have faith in humanity to believe that this evening's presentation and 130k+ reservations gets us a nice pop. Model 3 execution baked in or not, I'm not sure how anyone could credibly be anything but supremely pleased with 130k $1,000 deposits in 24 hours, most of which were sight unseen. Unprecedented.

 

[30seconds]

I see the Model 3 release and clear reservation numbers now kicking off the next phase of growth for the company. The demand is clearly there, now for the next set of factories and the financing/ deals needed to expand faster. Remember JB's presentations all show that the company is heading for production well north of 500,000 in 2020.

No confusion here. I've read the Secret Master Plan.

 

[NicoV]

With regards to the expections of the future of Tesla I feel that the general idea was that they would grow to 500k/year in the not too far future, but that growth would kind of slow down after that. With what we see now the expectations will change. Tesla will grow to be the biggest car manufacturer in the world by 2025 because none of the competitors will have a proper alternative, and the demand for Teslas will suck up the demand for other EVs, depriving the other manufacturers of the scale advantages they need to compete with Tesla!

 

[BobSk]

It's really interesting that they're trying to pump up the number of reservations (Elon just retweeted it again). This is obviously very different than before. What incentive can they have for wanting over 100k reservations? That means more people will be waiting anxiously and more pressure to deliver on time, possible loss of S and X sales, more people to communicate updates with (hopefully they'll be better at this), etc.

I really think they want that injection of cash Are there any regulations for what they can do with that money? Can they use it for R and D? Do they need to keep a percentage of it as cash in case people want refunds?

Model S and X mainly compete with large luxury sedans and SUVs. They win at a wide margin.

 

[neroden]

I am quite sure the interior isn't final. The lack of instrument cluster is... a problem; they'll have to line up that center screen a bit differently to make sure the speedometer is readable at all times, including with high glare.

It's also apparent from looking carefully at the cars that these are three different prototypes from slightly different stages of development.

This is really a quite similar stage to the Model S prototypes. The body-in-white is done. All the driving hardware is done. They didn't finalize the interior of Model S until *very* late and I suspect the same is true here.

 

[neroden]

Tesla will grow to be the biggest car manufacturer in the world by 2025 because none of the competitors will have a proper alternative

BYD will. Or one of the other Chinese companies. Don't get too optimistic.

That said, I'd be happy if Tesla became one of the top three car companies in the world.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Hat's off to Elon, that was by far the best presentation I have seen him give. He covered everything clearly and concisely, was comfortable, and not over-rehearsed. Thank you.

 

[Sancho]

Eliminating the dashboard is true design genius. This car screams "future."

 

[Runarbt]

M3: looks like there will be no need for the driver soon...

Agree.. And if no driver is needed, it should work in an Uber service?

Why would tesla, with their software skills and fleet knowhow let anyone else take this profit?

I hope they as part 2 announce full autonomy, and an option to owners to agree to have their model 3s be part of a Uber-like service, and split profit 50/50.

Mind blowing if true. killing off Uber and the taxi-buisness.

One model 3 could displace 4-5 ICE cars.;-)

Add Uber value to Tesla with a tweet and a software update?

Any thoughts? Just wild ramblings from me, or the logic evolution of things??