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I still think we stay near 230 on Friday. Options need to be harvested.
Probably a 10% jump and steadily climbing. Then another 5-10% jump next week if TSLA releases favorable quarterly production results. So hello to $300 for later this year, hoping to be sooner than later.
I don't think $230 will be the norm anymore. The gigantic amount of reservations coupled with generally accepted car design will indicate the share price of TSLA will have lift off.
I love the front. The "blank" front was telegraphed from the X. Took me a bit to get used to it, but I completely expected/welcomed it on the 3. I expected an S refresh to get it too, but now I think it's plausible that the S will keep its fake air intake. (but still be refreshed). Since the 3 does in fact look a bit like an S, it would be going the wrong direction to "3-ify" the S now.
From a stock April 1 point of view:
1) Non-ugly relief. We should not underestimate how much risk there was in holding prior to the event due to this.
2) reservations on the very high end of expectations (heck, I called for 40k or less). This is a major cash infusion and it has just begun! 300-400k in April is in the bag.
I think 5-7% up tomorrow but really this will be a rolling thing if it happens in 1H 2016, based on good Q1 deliveries, tweets about reservations, model X reviews/crash tests. Then the Q1 ER... it feels set up to be good. If it isn't then, the Q2 ER in Aug will knock the doors off.
From a stock April 1 point of view:
1) Non-ugly relief. We should not underestimate how much risk there was in holding prior to the event due to this.
2) reservations on the very high end of expectations (heck, I called for 40k or less). This is a major cash infusion and it has just begun! 300-400k in April is in the bag.
I think 5-7% up tomorrow but really this will be a rolling thing if it happens in 1H 2016, based on good Q1 deliveries, tweets about reservations, model X reviews/crash tests. Then the Q1 ER... it feels set up to be good. If it isn't then, the Q2 ER in Aug will knock the doors off.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Seeking Alpha rejected my first article, so I posted it here in a new thread. It contains some exciting revelations.
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I think $300 has a better chance in April due to favorable Model 3 reveal, reservations, and quarter production results.
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Maybe I can help with that. I have never bought a personal car in the Model 3 size and price category. My first ever car (own hard earned) was a Jaguar XJS and since then I have only gone German Porsche, Mercedes S, BMW 7.
I am thrilled that the Model 3 exists and even more thrilled to see the comments about it here but I don't want one for myself - probably will buy one for the better half anyway. I was really oddly torn by the Model X never having been interested in any kind of SUV before but I really want a full alu body shell sub 3 second 0-60 Model S with Ludicrous ideally with a MK2 autopilot suite and a Model X type lack of front grille and I have no difficulty understanding why I should pay the difference.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Julian, thank you for infusing a breath of fresh air into this forum. Keep posting my friend, as a bull I am glad to have you in my corner. Shorts are fiestybcreatures, we need every bit of your fierceness as a counter punch.
You know it didn't even occur to me until you wrote this, but the X nose job may have been very necessary to ease us into the Model 3 design. And when you think about it the interior is kind of the same way.... the S/X interior seemed radical at the time, but when you think about it sci-fis have always shown stuff close to M3 - but it always seemed to futuristic for real life. Now, though, after having seen the S for 3-4 years, the M3 interior is much less of a shock than a logical next step: yeah, a car in 2018 should look something like this.
Overall though, the car is a home run: the front is the lovechild of an X, a Porsche and an Aston, the back is "baby S" as someone put it, the roof looks stunning, the interior is 21st century... this will really grow on people very fast. Oh and 3 drivable prototypes? This car is not behind schedule.
This should do wonders for TSLA. (See what I did there, how i got back on topic?)
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Is anyone worried that Tesla just "Osborned" the model S & X sales for the next 2 years?
I think the model 3 looks absolutely fantastic! But what if it's so good that no one but those with money tambura is going to bother buying a model S or Model X now?
Isn't this s huge potential cashflow problem for Tesla? Just when they are ramping up capex spending for both the gigafactory and the model 3 production lines??
I think the model 3 looks absolutely fantastic! But what if it's so good that no one but those with money tambura is going to bother buying a model S or Model X now?
Isn't this s huge potential cashflow problem for Tesla? Just when they are ramping up capex spending for both the gigafactory and the model 3 production lines??
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Krugerrand
Meow
Discussed at length already in this thread. Scroll back a few pages. Answer: no
jhm
Well-Known Member
FUD forecast
Here are some meme I think bears will try to hammer away at.
So there you have it, the new FUD talking points. I don't believe any of thrm, but it's good to see what can be attacked. Shorts will not leave without a fight.
Here are some meme I think bears will try to hammer away at.
- Model 3 will cannibalize Model S and Model X once they run out of X reservations.
- Production of Model 3 will be late, second half of 2018 at the earliest.
- Margins on the Model 3 will be razor thin at best.
- Tesla does not know what it takes to produce cars in volume.
- Tesla is expanding too rapidly into to many marginal countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa.
- Supercharge access for the Model 3 is a cross-subsidization from Model S and X owners, not enough margin here to cover this cost.
- Tesla will have to grow up and do things more like the way major automakers do.
- Tesla will need massive capital raises to fund this ambition. Expect dilution.
So there you have it, the new FUD talking points. I don't believe any of thrm, but it's good to see what can be attacked. Shorts will not leave without a fight.
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