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I think we could see a significant increase in orders for days to come - as many more countries were added yesterday with no more than a brief last-minute Twitter announcement (and no announcement at all for Russia, Iceland, Turkey, and others), most people in those countries are probably not yet aware that they can order - it might take a few days for them to hear about it.
Too many pages of posts that I haven't read through yet, so maybe this was already posted, but a Porsche seems to have commit hari-kiri this morning when it learned of the Model 3 announcement.
Porsche bursts into flames at NYC auto show | New York Post
Porsche bursts into flames at NYC auto show | New York Post
So, all around huge news and much better than expected. Stock price at the level it was last week. What gives?
I'm not being impatient, just trying to understand the market. Maybe everyone (longs and shorts) is expecting that once the hype dies down the stock will take a breather? New investors scared by the recent ~ $100 run up? But how can demonstrated backlog of $7.5B in future revenue not move the market cap?
I'm not being impatient, just trying to understand the market. Maybe everyone (longs and shorts) is expecting that once the hype dies down the stock will take a breather? New investors scared by the recent ~ $100 run up? But how can demonstrated backlog of $7.5B in future revenue not move the market cap?
mejojo
Active Member
He is trying hard to pop the stock, but he claims he isn't worried about stock priceThere are double bookings in this count. Some people reserved multiple cars (a father-son duo reserved ten in store). When Elon said "Model 3 orders, whether in store or online, are limited to two per person", did he mean minimum of two? Glad to see the Tesla software engineers help out Elon with the reservation count.
But don't worry. The reservation count will vanish from quarterly reports, just like the Model X reservation count that vanished long ago. Or the Powerwall count.
You know, when I put some effort into it, I am able to muster up just a little bit of sympathy for you and your ilk.
So sorry for your mentality.....
CyberDutchie
Active Member
We need more analyst upgrades or price target increases! Likely they are holding out till next week when the reservation list picture becomes more clear, and they have had a chance to digest.
Adam Jonas this morning stated in a note:
"If Tesla can produce and deliver (even roughly on time) the car they unveiled last night at close to a $35k price, then this stock is probably quite undervalued."
Just wait for it...
Adam Jonas this morning stated in a note:
"If Tesla can produce and deliver (even roughly on time) the car they unveiled last night at close to a $35k price, then this stock is probably quite undervalued."
Just wait for it...
VW group struggles continue with 12V DC wire harnes.
I thought that was supposed to have been fixed by 1916 at the latest (21 years before VW even existed).
I really liked the Model 3 door handles. Fascinating to hear there is recognizable prior art (of long expired patenthood).
I know they have updated the early Model S door handle design and its fixed - but this is a legitimate de-costing for the 3 that maintains the core elements of common brand heritage and range preservation and only discards a feature than nobody would miss unless they had paid $70 ~ $150K for a VIP self presenting door handled car. At $35K I would not be pleased to pay for that feature instead of the money having been spent on something more important.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
My fridge got stolen from my home and I still haven't received my confirmation mail. Knowing my luck, my reservation got lost somewhere.
These are the reason why the stock dropped back from its highs this morning
These are the reason why the stock dropped back from its highs this morning
jhm
Well-Known Member
So at 125k reservations, I suspect the Model 3 is booked through 2018. At 300k to 400k booked through 2019. At 700k to 800k booked through 2020.
Now, my daughter starts driving in 2020. Should I be worried?
Skip that. What production schedule seems reasonable at this point? How does pushing the booked through date lead start to feed demand for reservations? That is, if I am worried about being able to buy a Model 3 in 2020, when when do I place my reservation?
Now, my daughter starts driving in 2020. Should I be worried?
Skip that. What production schedule seems reasonable at this point? How does pushing the booked through date lead start to feed demand for reservations? That is, if I am worried about being able to buy a Model 3 in 2020, when when do I place my reservation?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Multiple M3 ride videos:
Videos offer first look at what it’s like driving Tesla’s Model 3
By 2018 you will have much better understanding of the production schedule.
You might be in time to qualify for the tax credit.
The worst thing that could happen is you decide to cancel your order, but your deposit, along with many others helps to increase the SP.
Videos offer first look at what it’s like driving Tesla’s Model 3
What can you possibly lose by making a fully refundable $1k deposit now?
By 2018 you will have much better understanding of the production schedule.
You might be in time to qualify for the tax credit.
The worst thing that could happen is you decide to cancel your order, but your deposit, along with many others helps to increase the SP.
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hi all, long time lurker first post!
I was wondering if anyone has any insights on production schedule given the ridiculous amount of reservations? I read that tesla has capacity to produce ~80k cars this year, up 60% increase in production from 2015. If they continue to increase production by 60% every year they'd be able to produce 500k a year by end of 2020. Say reservation tops out at 300k by end of april, this alone will eat up their production capacity for the next 2 years and that is excluding Model S and X deliveries.
Optimistically say their production capacity is 130k in 2017, 30-40% of it is allocated to Model 3, which means if you are placed ~50,000th you would have to pick up in 2018, and if you ordered today (~200,000th) you wouldn't be able to pick up till 2019. Does any one see this as a problem?
I was wondering if anyone has any insights on production schedule given the ridiculous amount of reservations? I read that tesla has capacity to produce ~80k cars this year, up 60% increase in production from 2015. If they continue to increase production by 60% every year they'd be able to produce 500k a year by end of 2020. Say reservation tops out at 300k by end of april, this alone will eat up their production capacity for the next 2 years and that is excluding Model S and X deliveries.
Optimistically say their production capacity is 130k in 2017, 30-40% of it is allocated to Model 3, which means if you are placed ~50,000th you would have to pick up in 2018, and if you ordered today (~200,000th) you wouldn't be able to pick up till 2019. Does any one see this as a problem?
He is trying hard to pop the stock, but he claims he isn't worried about stock price
But don't worry. The reservation count will vanish from quarterly reports, just like the Model X reservation count that vanished long ago. Or the Powerwall count.
life will take car of you.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Crazy volume. 16million shares traded. Someone was working really hard to keep this thing below $238. Monday will be interesting.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Maybe its in the fridge?
Edit. I gave you a dislike and now I feel bad even though I shouldn't. I had an oven disappear from a guest house once. I disliked it too. The neighbor across the road, very nice lady from Finland said she watched it being carried through our hedge and thought it was very odd, but her husband had just stashed the garage full of illegally imported alcohol so she didn't think it was smart to call the cops. Bummer.
Anyway. Thought a dislike would demonstrate more genuine empathy.
I mean seriously.
My dog died
+1 +1 +1 Really?
This is not appropriate - I guess depending on how you felt about the dog in question. Could have been more
or . Not all dogs are very nice. How was the fridge?Did you really hate it but had it insured like the hope diamond like shorting the sh•t out of a fridge? If so please accept my apologies. If not I hope the email shows up.
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Electrifying
Member
Anybody who shorted or sold out this year is under water. They have to either cover or buy back. Add one million new 3 reservers who might want to own a few shares of their favorite company.
My suspicion is a lot of people will talk to each other about Tesla over the weekend, during the usual social get togethers. The reservation momentum should continue through the weekend. I think it will go back to a nominal pace from Monday onwards.
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Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
All those shorters out there got more cojones than me....
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