Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

I have a curious question please - if the massive preorders are a result of pent up demand (take for instance many folks who could not afford the S and the X and have been longing to own one) + new demand from viral news coverage, tweets etc, is it sensible to increase production capacity ? In other words, what if a massive chunk of demand came in a huge spike across a week and then dies down very quickly to a somewhat predictable rate. One cannot assume demand is crazy high if such a queuing theory model were to occur, right ?

Demand won't die down very quickly...at least not until Oprah has given everyone a Model 3. Remember, the demand being shown right this second is from a) people who had never seen the car and lined up (some camped out), and b) people who've had a glimpse of what the car is intended to be in almost TWO years time. I guarantee when the Model 3 hits the streets, demand will not suddenly fall to a predictable rate.

 

[FredTMC]

Adding to your list.

- tooling
- suppliers (which have been a source of issue on a number of occasions to date)

Excellent additions.

Ya suppliers are often beyond your control. Hopefully many suppliers are common with MS or MX.

Tooling: yes Elon said before that building the machines that build the machines can be tough

 

[Krugerrand]

So TM should release it by end of today if they don't want to break their promise like Elon did yesterday.

It wasn't a 'promise', so kindly stop calling it as such. Yes, language matters.

 

[mrdoubleb]

One explanation is the Q1 report is positive (meet or beat), so TM wants to not overlap it with good M3 news over the weekend, so it becomes more likely to be released after Monday close or before Tuesday open. If the Q1 report is bad (miss), I'm sure TM wants to release it after Friday close or over the weekend to let good M3 news overshadow it.

That's what they call burying the news: companies, governments, etc. tend to release bad news late on Friday so the s%@t storm dies down a bit by Monday. Another technique is bundling it with some really good data or on the back of something already getting positive attention. Long story short, if Q1 would be below guidance, Friday would have been the perfect spot for Tesla to bury it: in the middle of the mind-bending M3 per-order numbers and ahead of the weekend. The fact that they did not release it could mean that a, they are honest to the point of stupidity or b, that the numbers are good and they wanted the M3 event to play out and get all the articles out about that first.

This is how they get free marketing (and will squeeze the shorts).

PS: obviously I am going with situation "b".

 

[maoing]

Check the tweets, he meant 3 days and by last night clearly.

Don't know if is go as far as to say he "broke a promise"... And 3 days could easily mean three business days - so any time between now and Wednesday.

 

[maoing]

Agreed, I can't find any reason TM doesn't release it by EOD if it's a negative report. Otherwise, they must intentionally delay it for a reason.

That's what they call burying the news: companies, governments, etc. tend to release bad news late on Friday so the s%@t storm dies down a bit by Monday. Another technique is bundling it with some really good data or on the back of something already getting positive attention. Long story short, if Q1 would be below guidance, Friday would have been the perfect spot for Tesla to bury it: in the middle of the mind-bending M3 per-order numbers and ahead of the weekend. The fact that they did not release it could mean that a, they are honest to the point of stupidity or b, that the numbers are good and they wanted the M3 event to play out and get all the articles out about that first.

This is how they get free marketing (and will squeeze the shorts).

PS: obviously I am going with situation "b".

 

[maoing]

You can say so. But that's the grey zone TM and EM play with investors for long time. Don't like it.

It wasn't a 'promise', so kindly stop calling it as such. Yes, language matters.

 

[Krugerrand]

You can say so. But that's the grey zone TM and EM play with investors for long time. Doesn't like it.

Let me explain to you what a 'promise' is in the English language. Its starts like this every single time: I/We PROMISE to do....(fill in the blank). There is no grey zone.

Elon's 'intention' (which is different than a 'promise') was to report the reservation number at the end of day 3 (yesterday) and then one more time after 1 week (coming Wednesday). He didn't promise to do it and clearly we all know he's a busy guy and anything might be going on right now and has sidelined that intention at this point. If you'd like I can make a super long list of what might be going on to prevent him tweeting.

If you hold your horses (that means 'to be patient') you'll get your reservation number. It won't, however, do you one bit of good as an investor. You've either seen enough to make a decision or you're not very good at making decisions. And after Wednesday there's no telling if or when you'll ever see another reservation tally to base any further decisions on because Elon's 'intention' is to stop giving the tally out after that (note that wasn't a 'promise' either, so he can change his mind and give us a two week tally, a month tally or whatever he feels like). So, again, you've either seen enough to make a decision or you're a fence sitter until Model 3 hits the road.

 

[Causalien]

You're talking, instead of listening.

The goal of the master plan can not be achieved by taking baby steps. We don't have that kind of time. We don't have that kind of time! The huge payoff is that humans get to live on this planet for many more millennia.

Yes, OF COURSE there's a risk in expanding too quickly. The stumble in China had nothing to do with Tesla taking a too big step, it had to do with a small group of dickheads trying to game the system instead of doing the right thing.

And if you think Elon gives a crap about becoming 'a laughing stock', you haven't been paying attention. He's already been laughed at, and he's been berated by people he's highly respected. And look where he is now. I'd say he's in a pretty good position to laugh right back at them.

From what I understand of Elon, he's the type whose retaliation will totally annihilate you. However by the time it happens, you are already so insignificant that he can only remember he is doing this for humanity. but the subconscious still have the need to give a Big FU to someone.

Laugh at him at your own risk. I personally have heard rumours of something in 2 years close to production that'll annihilate every competitor who didn't immediately refocus the whole company into BEV.

 

[Julian Cox]

Not to be rumor mongering but Tesla has an awful big head count and an awful lot of equipment in the former NUMMI facility just to make 100,000 Model S & X - and it is not as thought they are not automation intensive either. At its peak NUMMI had about 5000 workers to produce 500,000 cars annually. Tesla has. 15,000 headcount already. Also I reacted when Musk tweeted the words Model 3 ramp - which is not really a normal term one would apply in the absence of any production capacity to ramp with for over a year.

 

[Runarbt]

Not to be rumor mongering but Tesla has an awful big head count and an awful lot of equipment in the former NUMMI facility just to make 100,000 Model S & X - and it is not as thought they are not automation intensive either. At its peak NUMMI had about 5000 workers to produce 500,000 cars annually. Tesla has. 15,000 headcount already. Also I reacted when Musk tweeted the words Model 3 ramp - which is not really a normal term one would apply in the absence of any production capacity to ramp with for over a year.

Isnt 15.000 the total number of employees, including SC worldwide?

But agree, production might be imminent

 

[hockeythug]

276k by end of Sat.

 

[everman]

Elon tweet is out: 276k

 

[tanner]

276k!

 

[Julian Cox]

Isnt 15.000 the total number of employees, including SC worldwide?

But agree, production might be imminent

Yes 15000 total in sc world wide.

 

[hockeythug]

The number is great but even if the manufacturing factory was tooled for 500k a year doesn't the Gigafactory still have to be operating at cost efficiency needed at that time as well? Can they speed things up?

 

[Larken]

Not to be rumor mongering but Tesla has an awful big head count and an awful lot of equipment in the former NUMMI facility just to make 100,000 Model S & X - and it is not as thought they are not automation intensive either. At its peak NUMMI had about 5000 workers to produce 500,000 cars annually. Tesla has. 15,000 headcount already. Also I reacted when Musk tweeted the words Model 3 ramp - which is not really a normal term one would apply in the absence of any production capacity to ramp with for over a year.

You know, that's something I've been thinking of these last days. I would not be surprised if Tesla somehow surprises the world and delivers the first M3 vehicle earlier than expected, say in Q3 2017. No one is expecting this, not even in anyone's wildest dreams.

The main reasons would be because the M3 is probably much easier to produce and vol. produce than S and X but secondly Tesla might (unexpectedly) find themselves tapping into big piles of additional cash seeing the demand and speed up their own internal goals. Imagine Wall St. reaction if this were to happen.

I'm not trying to start any rumors or anything, just thinking out loud. And you heard it here first.

 

[tanner]

Production isn't imminent. They haven't even finalized it yet. That comes first.

 

[Runarbt]

Production isn't imminent. They haven't even finalized it yet. That comes first.

They have invited ppl to become beta testers..

 

[Krugerrand]

276k by end of Sat.

See, it was just a matter of being patient.

Okay, so I'll totally guess that at the end of Wednesday the reservation total will be 325,000ish.